It’s anticipated that the UK’s renewable capacity will increase dramatically over the next decade. Plans are already in action to increase offshore wind’s output from 11 GW to 50 GW by 2030 – helped by a £200 million government cash injection and financial incentives. Meanwhile, solar capacity could grow five-fold from 14 GW to roughly 70 GW in the same period.
[My bold.] If I'm reading that correctly, then they are suggesting a massive rollout of PV during the next 8yrs, or possibly 13yrs as the broader context is up to 2035.
The recent CfD was for 2.2GWp for 2023-25, but of course a lot of PV is being rolled out without CfD's.
Just seems too large of an increase, unless I've missed some news. Perhaps it's all hidden in the 'could grow five fold' bit, just like statements of 'upto' tell us little.
Re: Planned(?) expansion of UK PV capacity.
Posted: Thu Jul 21, 2022 11:37 am
by Mart
Hmmm! The news is so good, I've somehow managed to post two threads. Oops.
Admin, can you help? I may have sorted it. Thanks.
Re: Planned(?) expansion of UK PV capacity.
Posted: Thu Jul 21, 2022 9:45 pm
by marshman
Just read a synopsis of the trading update from SSE and it contains this paragraph:
"Renewables made up less than half of underlying operating profits last year, but the plan is a fivefold increase in capacity to 50TW per year by 2031. This requires a substantial £12.5bn investment over the 5 years to 2026."
Re: Planned(?) expansion of UK PV capacity.
Posted: Thu Jul 21, 2022 10:04 pm
by Galahad
Mart wrote: ↑Thu Jul 21, 2022 11:37 am
Hmmm! The news is so good, I've somehow managed to post two threads. Oops.
Admin, can you help? I may have sorted it. Thanks.
I can't see a duplicate so assume you sorted it OK.
Re: Planned(?) expansion of UK PV capacity.
Posted: Thu Jul 21, 2022 10:11 pm
by nowty
marshman wrote: ↑Thu Jul 21, 2022 9:45 pm
Just read a synopsis of the trading update from SSE and it contains this paragraph:
"Renewables made up less than half of underlying operating profits last year, but the plan is a fivefold increase in capacity to 50TW per year by 2031. This requires a substantial £12.5bn investment over the 5 years to 2026."
Just got to get the UK Grid up to Nowty Towers standard.
Re: Planned(?) expansion of UK PV capacity.
Posted: Fri Jul 22, 2022 10:20 am
by Ken
I think this is very doable just looking at the antidotal evidence.
https://www.solarpowerportal.co.uk/blog ... ing_growth
"ndeed, we have commented regularly over the past couple of years on the growth in commercial rooftop installations and the pipeline of utility-scale ground-mounted projects (now over 40GW)."
Re: Planned(?) expansion of UK PV capacity.
Posted: Fri Jul 22, 2022 5:19 pm
by Mart
Thanks Ken, really good reads.
The fivefold increase by 2030 seems way too high, even to an optimist like me, but a 40GW pipeline is shocking, I'd missed that, so clearly 'never say never'. And whilst I appreciate that lots of projects will fall out and not proceed to completion, I'd hope that with falling costs (inflation aside), more projects will be added to the pipeline than leave over the next 8yrs.
Maybe the current leccy price scare, though ultimately transitory, will encourage (cough> scare <cough) businesses and residential to make the leap to PV on the demand side.
https://www.solarpowerportal.co.uk/blog ... ing_growth
"Indeed, we have commented regularly over the past couple of years on the growth in commercial rooftop installations and the pipeline of utility-scale ground-mounted projects (now over 40GW)."
and following on in that same article
But, ultimately, the UK does not manufacture products, and is at the whim of Asian supply, raw material price volatility and shipping costs. No slight here: China makes more than 90% of everything these days, and in some cases (for key parts of the value chain, including wafers used in cells) virtually 100%.
So, the UK is now in a fight globally to secure modules made in China (or by Chinese owned facilities in Southeast Asia).
It should be a nice problem for the industry: stratospheric demand in the absence of government hand-outs. But for now, it is a bun fight to secure product globally, and the entities suffering most are those seeking to fulfil gigawatt-plus portfolio build-outs in the near to mid-term.
There are just too many buyers! And over the next few years, many global utilities and corporates will fail to meet their declared goals (as part of net zero aspirations or corporate targets), simply by not getting enough modules.
As such, UK solar is contributing to the huge uptick in global PV demand, but is also subject to the frailties of being just another country controlled by external forces beyond its control.
... To say it is a sellers-market today is a gross understatement.
Can we really not justify setting up a panel-manufacturing plant? Apparent initial price shouldn't be the deciding factor, especially as China has been
undermining everyone else's production costings by using dirty penalty-free coal for decades.
Re: Planned(?) expansion of UK PV capacity.
Posted: Fri Jul 22, 2022 8:45 pm
by openspaceman
If Russia can control Germany with a stranglehold on gas there must be some scope for supporting silicon chip making elsewhere befre China does the same. I thought Australia smelted silicon and it would seem a good place to diversify into wafer production.
