Octopus Price Increase

[Stinsy]

Go, Go-Faster, and Inteligent, all 40p/kWh now!

[nowty]

Go, Go-Faster, and Inteligent, all 40p/kWh now!

Octopus seem to anticipate the actual capped rises before they are announced. I had the privilege of hosting my homeless son in law (who is an energy trader) last week and the conversation all week was pretty much doom and gloom in terms of year ahead gas and leccy prices in Europe which the suppliers use to hedge. They have risen significantly since OFGEM suggested bills could be £800 a year more.

Well that's almost certainly now an under estimate with another rise almost certain 3 months after in the new regime which allows for a price review every 3 months if there is a large wholesale change.

Year ahead gas price is now circa 13p per kWh. That's wholesale, so expect retail to be 15p per kWh !, your talking double or treble since last winter.

Year ahead leccy price is now circa 32p per kWh, so again, retail may well be, funny enough, say 40p / kWh.

And the winter prices are even worse !, especially in continental Europe because in the market, the gas from Russia is assumed forecast to be turned off with rationing throughout continental Europe. In Italy for example, leccy this winter in the market is 50+ euro cents per kWh.

[nowty]

I note there is an article from the BBC today saying average bills will now hit £3000 a year this winter.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-62056385

I just did a few calculations.

Current and previous capped OFGEM rates,


The OFGEM average bills are based on Typical Domestic Consumption Values (TDCV) of 2,900kWh of electricity, 12,000kWh of gas. Current average bill is £1,971. £265 of standing charge and £1,707 of unit charges.

So if we assume a new bill of £3,000 and the standing charge remains the same at £99 for gas and £165 for leccy, that means the cost of unit rates of £2,736 or an increase of £1,029 from £1,707.

Last time gas unit price increased 81% and leccy unit price increased by 36%.

Lets assume Octopus have got the leccy price right at 40p / kWh which is a 41% increase.

That means gas would go to circa 13p / kWh which would be a 76% increase.

[martinW]

I suppose it depends on what area you live in as well.

I just renewed my go faster tariff (around 24 June 2022) in wales, fixed for 12 months.

Day rate 35.04p per kWh

Night rate 8.25p per kWh (for 5 hours)

Standing charge 47.88p per day

Definitely makes installing a whole house battery system a viable cost option. off setting 10kwh of electric per day would save just under £1000 per year. Install cost would be in the £5000-6000 I think

[nowty]

I suppose it depends on what area you live in as well.

I just renewed my go faster tariff (around 24 June 2022) in wales, fixed for 12 months.

Day rate 35.04p per kWh

Night rate 8.25p per kWh (for 5 hours)

Standing charge 47.88p per day

Definitely makes installing a whole house battery system a viable cost option. off setting 10kwh of electric per day would save just under £1000 per year. Install cost would be in the £5000-6000 I think

This assumes the cheap rate will remain as cheap as it currently is, I'm not convinced about that or at least if it does, there may be a anti abuse clause, like you cant have more than 2/3 your total at cheap rate.

Historically the cheap rate on Go has been close to the cost of gas, so if that's going up to circa 13 or even 15p, then that's what the cheap rate will likely rise to.

[nowty]

Could even get worse,

https://www.cornwall-insight.com/defaul ... ent-looms/

New forecasts from Cornwall Insight have seen the Default Tariff Cap for Q1 2023 (Jan-Mar) rise to £3,363 a year for an average domestic consumer, increasing significantly from the £3,003 figure released two weeks ago. Predictions for the Q4 2022 (Oct-Dec) Cap, have also seen a steep increase, and now sit at £3,244 a year.

Adjusting my maths, that puts the next capped cost (oct to dec) gas around 14p / kWh and leccy around 44p / kWh which is slightly worse than my previous calculation.

[Joeboy]

Could even get worse,

https://www.cornwall-insight.com/defaul ... ent-looms/

New forecasts from Cornwall Insight have seen the Default Tariff Cap for Q1 2023 (Jan-Mar) rise to £3,363 a year for an average domestic consumer, increasing significantly from the £3,003 figure released two weeks ago. Predictions for the Q4 2022 (Oct-Dec) Cap, have also seen a steep increase, and now sit at £3,244 a year.

Adjusting my maths, that puts the next capped cost (oct to dec) gas around 14p / kWh and leccy around 44p / kWh which is slightly worse than my previous calculation.

That is terrifying.

[nowty]

Sounds like the additional hike its becoming official.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-62123691

[openspaceman]

Sounds like the additional hike its becoming official.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-62123691

I would never have predicted that prices would go so high two years ago but my 6kWh battery has been a revelation to me and all but eliminated my electricity imports since mid March.

Of course this price has caused a step change in demand for Solar PV and battery also is probably most common now. After all cost is not much different from an average new car.

So how much effect will people like me, driven largely by personal economy, begin to affect the overall demand or will we always be a small minority? How much rooftop PV is a realistic aim countrywide? Will we be able to produce our own silicon wafers?

For my part just looking at the raw figures it looks like doubling my PV would provide even my 7kWh/day winter needs but would lead to a massive increase in exports at this time of year. My current take is that money invested in rooftop PV and battery storage is likely better invested than the per person investment in proposed nuclear power if PV lifetime exceeds 25 years (and I see no deterioration after 10 years) and battery life exceeds 8 years.

My issue is that of storage, I think I am at the best point for performance for money invested and that extra 450kWh of winter imports is still going to cost only £200 at 44p/kWh. Storing that 450kWh seasonally is the big problem and there's no way that can be done with pimped storage, battery, gravity or liquid air.

Heating costs are harder to mitigate, especially as a lot of housing stock is old and hard to insulate like mine, although in my case a few days foraging for logs in the few more years I am able means that cost is small.

[nowty]

I believe there has been some more price hikes at Octopus,

For new contracts,
Gas tracker is now capped at 16p / kWh (up from 11p).
Agile is now capped at 55p / kWh (up from 35p).