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High loss of load probability forecast

Posted: Tue Mar 07, 2023 10:12 am
by Swwils
07/03/23 18:00 LOLP forecast

56.2855500%

Expected GB generation is currently less than demand by -115.9MW (negative derated margin)

I guess they will stick on West Burton 1 coal and Drax 5 & 6.

Re: High loss of load probability forecast

Posted: Tue Mar 07, 2023 4:19 pm
by sharpener
I see they are currently exporting 2.3GW to France and Ireland, wouldn't they want to reduce these first?

Re: High loss of load probability forecast

Posted: Tue Mar 07, 2023 4:39 pm
by Countrypaul
sharpener wrote: Tue Mar 07, 2023 4:19 pm I see they are currently exporting 2.3GW to France and Ireland, wouldn't they want to reduce these first?
I would guess that if they can earn more by generating and exporting then that is what they will do.

Re: High loss of load probability forecast

Posted: Tue Mar 07, 2023 4:47 pm
by Countrypaul

Re: High loss of load probability forecast

Posted: Tue Mar 07, 2023 8:29 pm
by Swwils
sharpener wrote: Tue Mar 07, 2023 4:19 pm I see they are currently exporting 2.3GW to France and Ireland, wouldn't they want to reduce these first?
It doesn't quite work like that, just because it's a grid doesn't mean twh transmission is free.

Re: High loss of load probability forecast

Posted: Tue Mar 07, 2023 9:10 pm
by Swwils
Outturn imbalance prices hit £1950/MWh over the evening peak.

3.61 GW of wind. 22.67 GW gas. 1.74 GW coal.

Hopefully this illustrates that wind power is not the same value as power from a fuel, just like random Ubers isn't the same usefulness as regular Uber.

Re: High loss of load probability forecast

Posted: Wed Mar 08, 2023 12:06 am
by sharpener
Biggest constituent is transfers to/from France, it went from -4 to +2.5 GW during the course of the day, completely dwarfs the contribution from coal useful though that is. I am surprised given the state of their nukes they can spare it.

Re: High loss of load probability forecast

Posted: Wed Mar 08, 2023 12:45 am
by Swwils
Also true.

EU grid not really at its best!