Considering my insulation has been upgraded, I have cavity wall insulation as well, my house is roughly half the size of his, I think it's pretty conclusive he'll have more than a 8.5 kW heat loss. Yes, if there is sufficient secondary heating then he may well get away with an 8.5 kW heat pump, BUT I have secondary heating, a 5kW WBS, but the heat gets trapped in the lounge dinning room, and doesn't really heat the rest of the house even with the doors wide open.
We'll find out when he gets the heat loss survey done.