So in theory we know the answer to this will be zero in 2025 when conditions allow. Wondering if it might be soon!
According to the grid this morning (30th March) , gas is at just 1.73GW, and biomass also only 0.35GW. Gas is only 6% of total generation/demand. We've got about 1GW of nuclear to come back in the next couple of weeks, and April is often a very good month for solar and wind combined.
Demand is falling now due to less heating requirement but not yet increased due to air-con, so bets on last week of April for a period of zero gas?
Tesla Model 3 Performance
Oversees an 11kWp solar array at work
Neso stated that they will be in a position to run NET zero by 2025.
They have in effect already shown this is possible as for eg this morning we were exporting more than the gas was producing and that is whilst curtailing 4+ GW of wind.
There are a number of records i think being broken like yesterday? 8GW of imports, which was 35% of demand. Wind reaching 65% of production in the early hrs today. Total demand at min of 18.6GW today in March.
I cannot see zero gas happening for some time as we do not have the transmission grid and NESO want to keep plants ticking over for "just in case"
That is an old document and quite opaque. I think it said that their plans are to put things in place to be able to cope with 100% renewables by 2025, so I guess that is why we have these big spinning/inertia things doing effectively nothing until they are needed! The other aspects I don't understand, but I am happy to believe that they know what they are doing...
(unlike the crowd fixing the prices and ensuring that the public continue to get milked for as long as possible. Hang on, they know what they are doing too, but they just have no consciences!)
2.0 kW/4.62 MWh pa in Ripples, 4.5 kWp W-facing pv, 9.5 kWh batt
30 solar thermal tubes, 2MWh pa in Stockport, plus Congleton and Kinlochbervie Hydros,
Most travel by bike, walking or bus/train. Veg, fruit - and Bees!
Page 8 has an update on their Zero Carbon Operation (ZCO) by 2025 ambition (my emphasis):
NESO wrote:Achieving zero carbon in 2025
We continue to develop new tools, processes and strategies as we seek to achieve our zero carbon ambition in 2025. As we outlined in the last Operability Strategy Report, we require the market to first deliver a zero carbon generation mix, and then for us to have the technical capability to operate that mix. There will be times when our ability to operate a zero carbon system is limited by wider system conditions. We expect the likely periods for zero carbon operation to be possible are in the final quarter of 2025, when demand conditions are right, network service contracts are operational and more of our projects have delivered.
Although note they have changed their definition of ZCO to include biomass.
Anyone what the minimum time it takes a CCGT to go from burning gas to not burning gas and back to burning gas again? I imagine in practice this would be managed by having one unit ramping down while another prepares to ramp up.
Dan you are quite correct in being able to run zero CO2 by 2025 if only for short periods. I was confusing it with the 2030 net zero target where 5% gas seems to have been introduced to achieve net zero.
However being able and doing is two very different things. NESO are a very conservative lot whose only objective is to keep the lights on. They will want to see a whole load of excess RE and storage before giving up gas on stand by ticking over. In reality i am not sure how much NESO can control the market like that.
At times when there is loads of RE we see the market price dragged down and dictated by the RE but even then the the gas will live with a very low loss making price to keep the turbines spinning knowing that they will make hay at other times. So perhaps we cannot have 100% RE until such times as the gas just becomes peaking plant/stand by running under a different pricing regime.
The only issue is the ongoing requirement of ‘spinning reserve’ for black-starts after widespread power failures. Nothing to do with how much or how little renewables are being generated.
There have been umpteen periods over the last year, or so, when fossil burning has (theoretically) not been needed, sometimes for several hours at a time.
It was stated that 2025 was the target date, for this issue to be resolved. That was some two or three years ago.
