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Interesting Winter Energy Supply Forecast

Posted: Mon Aug 01, 2022 12:18 am
by nowty
Nowty Towers will be keeping its batteries topped up on the high side this winter. :?

https://www.enappsys.com/winter-of-disc ... jGYxIV1ESc

Conclusions
This winter will see some extreme pricing events related to French nuclear power problems, the war in Ukraine and the reliance in GB on interconnectors to provide power in a capacity crunch. The winter will require co-operation between gas and electricity system operators across interconnectors to keep costs low for consumers and the system secure.

Whilst GB is physically an island its extensive interconnection to the continent and reliance on electricity imports in a capacity crunch mean that any issues with gas supply on the continent will affect the energy market in GB. Government and regulators need to recognise this.

This winter will be a perfect storm showing the effects of reliance on a single technology type for electricity in France, a reliance on Russian gas as a primary energy source in Europe and a reliance on interconnection in the GB electricity market as a replacement for generation capacity.

Re: Interesting Winter Energy Supply Forecast

Posted: Mon Aug 01, 2022 6:05 am
by Stinsy
Let’s hope we have a windy winter!

Re: Interesting Winter Energy Supply Forecast

Posted: Mon Aug 01, 2022 7:50 am
by Adokforme
Stinsy wrote: Mon Aug 01, 2022 6:05 am Let’s hope we have a windy winter!
And a lot of rain to drive Hydro!

Re: Interesting Winter Energy Supply Forecast

Posted: Mon Aug 01, 2022 9:07 am
by AE-NMidlands
The winter will require co-operation between gas and electricity system operators across interconnectors to keep costs low for consumers and the system secure.
I think they mean as low as can be managed or no higher than necessary in the circumstances!
A

Re: Interesting Winter Energy Supply Forecast

Posted: Mon Aug 01, 2022 9:27 am
by Joeboy
Isn't this the time for standard tarrifs as run by millions to have a tou cheap window to spread the load? Why else did all those smart meters get fitted?

Re: Interesting Winter Energy Supply Forecast

Posted: Mon Aug 01, 2022 10:02 am
by Ken
Joeboy wrote: Mon Aug 01, 2022 9:27 am Isn't this the time for standard tarrifs as run by millions to have a tou cheap window to spread the load? Why else did all those smart meters get fitted?
Yes now is the moment.

Re: Interesting Winter Energy Supply Forecast

Posted: Mon Aug 01, 2022 10:44 am
by Ken
That report uses this statement more than once "a reliance on interconnection in the GB electricity market as a replacement for generation capacity"

My understanding is that we are not reliant on the interconnectors but have historically used them for pricing reasons. The EU has traditionally had a cheaper wholesle price due to cheap Russian gas powering Germany and nuclear powering France largely setting the price. The interconnectors are/were a nicety not a necessity.

If the UK is heading for trouble with its very well diversified capacity then god help the EU which is not as well.

If we were an island we would allow our prices to be contained by UK supply not influeced by EU prices exporting their problems to us. Germany and France created their problems not the British bill payers. In fact UK bill payers might be better off if we disconnected the interconnectors.

Re: Interesting Winter Energy Supply Forecast

Posted: Mon Aug 01, 2022 11:09 am
by Mr Gus
Chase some logs down for your possibly "rocky road" winter as old school energy storage.

Then wait for the next seasonal round of guardian reportage on WBS.

Not joking: ➡ I wonder how many people attempting to burn off off & laminate chipboard type woods on open fires fire brigade call outs we will encounter this winter, new record highs I anticipate.

Re: Interesting Winter Energy Supply Forecast

Posted: Mon Aug 01, 2022 6:09 pm
by MoSTiE
I'm going to fill the garage with coal .... just in case. :twisted:

Re: Interesting Winter Energy Supply Forecast

Posted: Mon Aug 01, 2022 6:11 pm
by Countrypaul
MoSTiE wrote: Mon Aug 01, 2022 6:09 pm I'm going to fill the garage with coal .... just in case. :twisted:
Then when you don't use it and there is no market for it to sell into.... :D