DNV’s - Energy Transition Outlook UK 2022

[Mart]

Not sure if other people get this, I had an e-mail from them, but here's a link

Download available here

Just thought I'd mention it as a few things jumped out at me, but to be clear, I haven't read most of the report, and will have missed much. Also no idea how accurate this report is considered, but it made me have a ponder.



Page 44 has a chart of estimated GW capacity of the electricity generation.

I was surprised (initially) at the gas numbers:

2021 - 36GW
2030 - 43GW
2040 - 30GW
2050 - 19GW

But I was reminded of a couple of things I've read on here, both I think from Ken (apologies if it was someone else), firstly, regarding our targets for leccy, they are 'net' targets, and secondly I think the comment (whilst discussing the complexities of longer term storage) was, something like 'why not just use gas'.

This report would seem to match that, we may need initially more gas capacity (GW), despite a continual reduction in gas/FF generation (GWh) each year. This points me back to the rapidly expanding off-shore wind capacity, UK internal interconnectors, and the massive increase in UK to mainland Europe interconnectors.

I suppose this comes under milestones, first we need to get to net zero, before we can even think about dropping the 'net'.



Next, the report mentions an unsurprising increase in leccy consumption in the UK by about 150%, so 2.5x what we use now. And linked to that, (and my first point), page 46 seems to be suggesting a tripling of transmission and distribution 'grid lengths'. Wow!




I thought figure 3.6 on page 27 was interesting, showing the move to BEV sales, and also the fleet as a whole. Could be at 50% of the fleet by 2035, and 75% by 2040.




Mentions of leccy storage expanding massively, and also seasonal gas storage. The section on hydrogen suggests half of it (long term) coming from FF gas with CCS .... hmm!




UK primary energy dropping from around 2,500TWh, to 1,500TWh.




Page 84 shows the falling CO2(e) emissions for the UK, suggesting we are down to 400Mt (from 800), heading for 100 by 2050.

[Mart]

Also forget, fig 6.3 on page 82, showing a reduction in household expenditure on energy, from about 2026 (after a peak), with most of the savings being down to lower transport costs.