Thanks for that, I have sausage finger syndrome...............
Desp
Re: No miracles needed.
Posted: Mon Jan 23, 2023 9:54 pm
by AE-NMidlands
Hmmm...
Jacobson’s claim is a big one. He is not just talking about a shift to 100% renewable electricity, but all energy – and fossil fuels still provide about 80% of that today. Jacobson has scores of academic papers to his name and his work has been influential in policies passed by cities, states and countries around the world targeting 100% green power. He is also controversial, not least for pursuing a $10m lawsuit against researchers who claimed his work was flawed, which he later dropped.
Re: No miracles needed.
Posted: Mon Jan 23, 2023 10:01 pm
by Mr Gus
Re: No miracles needed.
Posted: Wed Jan 25, 2023 8:47 am
by ClockmanFRA
spread-tee wrote: ↑Mon Jan 23, 2023 9:07 pm
Somebody just needs to tell the politicians
As I mentioned on my 'splitter' thread, been following this guy and his Stanford team for years. I think it's so important to point out that we have most of the answers today, and they are economical. This augurs well for the future as things will only get better. It's similar to the argument that it's now cheaper to fight AGW, than to not, and that's without costing in the externalities.
Think about it, just a decade ago PV and offshore wind were extremely expensive in the UK (£/MWh), onshore wind was closer but still uncompetitive, and folk up and down the country thought it would blight our views. Now these technologies are all leading the charge. Add in the massive expansion of HVDC interconnectors.
Cheerful news (along the lines of this thread) is that a quarter of a terrawatt of PV was installed last year around the World. This year it could be a third of a TW. And PV manufacturing costs have fallen again in China. By 2030, annual deployments should be around 1TWp each year. That got my odd brain spinning for a scale:
1TWp at UK capacity factors (~11%), would equal 110GW of generation 24/7 (purely for comparison). That's about what the UK will consume in an all leccy future with demand around 2.5x what it is today, or ~100GW average. So by 2030, just annual PV deployments will be displacing a whole future UK demand, and still growing. Pop them in a sunnier country with single axis trackers and you have 2 UK's pa, just from new PV.
Sorry for the nonsense numbers, my brain does weird things if allowed to run free, but it does look like we have an extremely promising RE future ahead ....... but still way too much CO2 in the atmosphere/environment, but, one victory at a time.
Re: No miracles needed.
Posted: Wed Jan 25, 2023 11:47 am
by Stinsy
Mart wrote: ↑Wed Jan 25, 2023 11:09 am
And PV manufacturing costs have fallen again in China.
However retail prices have risen! Was 25p/Wp a few years ago, we're not far off double that nowadays!
Re: No miracles needed.
Posted: Wed Jan 25, 2023 11:52 am
by Oliver90owner
Likely a miracle is needed whatever we do now, if this process accelerates.
Methane, and sequestered CO2 (afterwards), escaping to the atmosphere may negate any hope we have of averting an accelerating rise in global temperature.
Re: No miracles needed.
Posted: Wed Jan 25, 2023 1:26 pm
by nowty
Oliver90owner wrote: ↑Wed Jan 25, 2023 11:52 am
Likely a miracle is needed whatever we do now, if this process accelerates.
Methane, and sequestered CO2 (afterwards), escaping to the atmosphere may negate any hope we have of averting an accelerating rise in global temperature.