camelot-forum.co.uk

A good read

https://www.insidehook.com/article/vehi ... uel-future

Of course, infrastructure discussion conceals the next inconvenient truth about hydrogen fuel: there are significant energy costs associated with producing it. Well-to-wheel efficiency studies that examine energy use from the moment a power source is generated to the point that it’s unleashed by a driver’s right foot show hydrogen’s efficiency at just over 20%. A battery-powered electric vehicle is more than three times more efficient at using electrical energy. It’s important to note that these are just efficiency arguments, not even scratching the surface of the carbon footprints associated with how that electricity is produced.

Definitely the fossil-fuel industry clinging on and trying to muddy the waters - even if the Hydrogen isn't produced from hydrocarbons or burnt in an ICE.
A

AE-NMidlands wrote: ↑Wed Mar 22, 2023 6:24 pm

Of course, infrastructure discussion conceals the next inconvenient truth about hydrogen fuel: there are significant energy costs associated with producing it. Well-to-wheel efficiency studies that examine energy use from the moment a power source is generated to the point that it’s unleashed by a driver’s right foot show hydrogen’s efficiency at just over 20%. A battery-powered electric vehicle is more than three times more efficient at using electrical energy. It’s important to note that these are just efficiency arguments, not even scratching the surface of the carbon footprints associated with how that electricity is produced.

Definitely the fossil-fuel industry clinging on and trying to muddy the waters - even if the Hydrogen isn't produced from hydrocarbons or burnt in an ICE.
A

Agree 100%. Only my opinion, but a lot of the media attention on HFCV's, seem to be from the FF industry side, not the auto industry. Whilst Toyota (and BMW and others) do talk up H2 solutions, it seems the obfuscate and delay tactics of FF are really behind the misinformation.

The faster folk move to BEV's the faster we hit peak oil demand*, but folk stalling on a change, as they await the fabled HFCV's could help to prop up oil sales for many more years.


*Boring warning, but we have hit several 'peaks' regarding oil.

First we reached peak iCE sales, that was around 2017.

Next milestone is peak ICE fleet. This required annual ICEV sales to fall below ICEV retirements, so sales today need to be roughly below ICEV sales from ~15yrs ago (the ones falling out of use). Looks like we hit peak ICE fleet in 2021, but it's a little harder to nail down.

Then we have the big one - peak oil demand for road transport. I thought that would come with peak ICEV fleet, but missed the obvious, the cars sold in the last 15yrs have been a bit larger and heavier, especially a shift to SUV style vehicles. But it still looks like we are very close to peak oil (again for road transport fuel), so hopefully we'll see this in the next few years, perhaps by mid decade. After which the reduction in oil demand should accelerate, in line with the acceleration in BEV adoption rates.

How will Europe's e-fuel for ICEV back peddling influence this do you think ?

What will be the price and availability of e-fuel? whos even making it at scale for the market ?

Moxi

Moxi wrote: ↑Thu Mar 23, 2023 9:50 am How will Europe's e-fuel for ICEV back peddling influence this do you think ?

What will be the price and availability of e-fuel? whos even making it at scale for the market ?

Moxi

My guess, is that there will be little to no sales of these e-fuel specific vehicles. I'm not even sure how 'they' will be able to ensure that the vehicles can't run on 'normal' fuels, and thus allow their sales after deadlines for petrol/diesel new sales are reached.

But, like the HFCV media attention, e-fuel vehicles could also slow down the shift to BEV's with some folk holding out for these mythical beasts?

In fact, given the choice of e-fuels or HFCV's, then I'd have thought H2 wins with greater efficiency (or to be more precise, HFCV's are more efficient than ICE, whereas HICE is little better). Though transporting e-fuels to a fueling site will be easier than H2.

Came across this just now and as you suggest the global production capacity is less than 10 percent of Germanys total fuel requirement so its a stalling tactic by the motor manufacturers who have left it late to develop and diversify their portfolios.

https://www.msn.com/en-gb/cars/news/cou ... d5bc&ei=21

Lets hope the EU doesnt buckle to Germany like usual, at least this time the French are opposition.

Moxi

If you look on youtube at clarkeson "visiting the neighbours" germans episode, you are correct as to dominating europe via the eu it's said flippantly but ..you know.

& asides from some mad old gammon types (as they became virally known) another tier of old boys doing a bigger scale eurovision gang up is what makes me puke, stuck in the middle of our own political twots & that, politics, where are all the honest "working for the people" not "corrupt corp inc" politicians

I despair.

I recall seeing an article recently about Porsche having launched its first "renewable-powered e-fuel synthesis generator" or something, from a plant in Chile. It is tiny, and almost completely pointless.

Edit - here's an article about it
https://techcrunch.com/2022/12/20/porsc ... YUPyL4Cm0d