HPC

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dan_b
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Re: HPC

#31

Post by dan_b »

Olkiluoto - construction began in 2005! Finally went on line in 2023. Took 18 years
Flammanville - construction began in 2007. first generation expected in 2024... Guess that means it will have taken 17 years. 1 year improvement
Taishan 1 & 2 - construction began in 2009, went online in 2019, took 10 years. Big improvement.

Hinkley C - construction began in 2017, so if delayed to 2030 earliest, that's 13 years. Still quicker than the other 2 European-based ones, but nothing like as rapid as the Chinese ones.
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Moxi
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Re: HPC

#32

Post by Moxi »

Add in the fact that the Hinkley C reactors include design changes to avoid and mitigate against the fuel cladding failures that took Taishan Unit 1 offline for a year and the gap between the UK and the Chinese reactor builds starts to look better still.

The Chinese benefitted from construction lessons learnt at Flammanville and Olkilutoto and the UK has benefitted from those lessons and the Chinese operational experience. UK construction has suffered from resource and expertise shortfalls and most significantly a reliance on overseas manufacturing infrastructure for critical assemblies and components. No matter how fast you build domestically if you need the specific casting from France then you have to get in "line"

We have experience of this on the forum with regard to combined line and comms connectors for Kirkhill.

If we are only building a brace of EPR's then theres no point in trying to address the manufacturing BUT if the UK is really wanting to be a SMR producer of choice then we really do need to concentrate more resources in to the supply sector at all levels.

Moxi
dan_b
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Re: HPC

#33

Post by dan_b »

thought I'd try and find out if any other EPRs are planned anywhere else...


UK
Sizewell C - 2x 1600MW EPRs - appears to be going ahead, with construction expected to commence in 2024.
Moorside - originally planned as a new nuclear site to be developed by Westinghouse/Toshiba which collapsed in 2027, EDF put forwards a proposal for 2x 1600MW EPRs here in 2020.

Hitachi pulled out of Wylfa in 2021, and so far EDF hasn't said anything about that site, but with the UK Govt's new "nuclear roadmap" announced in Jan 2024, it looks likely that Moorside, and Wylfa, will be back on the agenda.

Czech Republic
In 2021, EDF put forward a proposal for 1x 1200MW EPR into a competitive tender and the Govt will announce the winner soon. Construction expected to start in 2029.

India
In 2009 EDF signed a "Memorandum of Understanding" with the Indian Govt to develop a new fleet of reactors in the country.
In 2021, EDF submitted formal plans for 6x EPRs for a total of 9.6GW of power at Jaiatpur on the West Coast of India. No news since.

France
And in their own country, EDF has plans for an entirely new fleet of EPRs, which now includes a redesigned EPR2.
In 2022, French Govt committed to 6 new EPR2 reactors, with an option for 8 more announced in Jan 2024.

The first of these will be at Penly on the north coast of France, with construction slated for 2027. I can't find any information about locations of the other sites


Kazakhstan'
Yep, EDF is in the running to build a new EPR in that famously stable country.
In 2022, bids were submitted by 6x nuclear developers, including EDF, who put in for the EPR1200.
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Mart
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Re: HPC

#34

Post by Mart »

I'm gonna stick my neck out and suggest that SCZ won't go ahead. I just can't see how the Gov will find a financing deal that Parliament will think acceptable*. I'm guessing that the lack of savings v's the original HPC deal, and the recent massive inflationary cost increases for large projects (due to the gas price spike) will mean SCZ will need as high, or higher deal than HPC, so a CfD of £89.50+, perhaps £100?

HPC got approved in 2012, but the contract wasn't signed until 2015, and folk may recall Theresa May asking for a review the day before signing, embarassing the Chinese delegation who were already in the UK. I suspect that was a last second play to cancel the deal, but post Brexit vote, it wasn't wise to upset the Chinese.

If this years offshore wind auction can come in at ~£50/MWh**, then if market prices drop back towards £50/MWh, we could see wind with little to no subsidy, for 15yrs, and SCZ at £50/MWh for 35yrs. [Using 2012 baseline.]


*The House of Lords was very negative about HPC when they revued the decision, and even went as far as to suggest the Gov's estimated energy costs for 2030 were designed to flatter nuclear:

Government prediction for 2030 (2012 baseline pricing)
Onshore wind to be in the range £45-72/MWh
Offshore wind will be in the range £85-109/MWh
Nuclear, at £69-99/MWh.
Solar they predict £59-73/MW

I'm going to 'cheat' and use the round 4 results (not round 5) due to the inflationary impacts that struck construction, transport etc so much over and above the index linked increases, as these may go back down as gas use/prices fall in Europe in the next few years.

Onshore wind £42.47/MWh
Offshore wind £37.35/MWh
Nuclear - no new contracts since HPC at £89.50/MWh.
Solar £45.99/MWh

[I'm not happy 'cheating' and using the R4 results, but I don't think the R5 results reflect the medium/longer term trend for pricing. This also benefits nuclear, as we have seen the recent news that HPC construction costs have spiked, so hopefully I'm being fair.]


**Hard to guess at the necessary price. Onshore wind and PV went up ~20%, but no bids for offshore wind, which had a max bid price of £44/MWh, but would have needed over £46 for a similar 20% increase. This year the max is £73, but I've no idea what the winning bids will actually be, but hoping for ~£50/MWh.
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Moxi
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Re: HPC

#35

Post by Moxi »

I would agree with that Mart, there really isnt a viable way to finance another large scale EPR other than to openly lump the cost on us the consumer. No Government will do that unless they can be sure that we wont get wise to the huge cost implications before they get voted out, given the intense inspection on HPC costs I would expect any SZC deal would identify the costs upfront and cause public outrage.

Any UK government wanting new nuclear probably needs to do it in house "GB" and that suggests starting with a SMR design from the likes of RR.

Forge masters can do the castings, we have the engineering, physics, safety case experience to do the deign and construction teams large enough to build. The initial returns on investment would be low because the first of type is expensive to build but having got the experience the next few SMR's should be the same type with operational experience tweaks and be built faster, hence cheaper and the return on investment then improves.

return on investment is "we the public" as our unit cost of electric should be consistent, affordable and stable.

We will however have to swallow the development costs and that neds a strong government to tell it straight!

Moxi
dan_b
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Re: HPC

#36

Post by dan_b »

All true. But we know these things get built despite the cost.

Maybe EDF will bring forward the EPR2 design as a way of reducing the cost of Sizewell and AN Other. Apparently it’s a massively simplified design
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Moxi
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Re: HPC

#37

Post by Moxi »

Its odd isnt it, all the reactor designers, design a bigger better reactor and then when they cant build it economically or sell a model, they bring out aversion of the same reactor take out al the bels and whistles they originally added and call it better ?

example being the BWR or boiling water reactor which was improved in generation 3 to the Advanced BWR before then being offered as the SBWR or simplified boiling water reactor and then ESBWR economic simplified boiling water reactor !

EPR 2 is no different.

Moxi
Moxi
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Re: HPC

#38

Post by Moxi »

Just in case anyone thought it was just EPR's that were late and over budget, Vogtle's woes continue apace also :? .

https://www.msn.com/en-gb/money/other/v ... 9e03&ei=39

Moxi
Mart
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Re: HPC

#39

Post by Mart »

Moxi wrote: Fri Feb 02, 2024 8:20 am Just in case anyone thought it was just EPR's that were late and over budget, Vogtle's woes continue apace also :? .

https://www.msn.com/en-gb/money/other/v ... 9e03&ei=39

Moxi
I wonder if the US will 'officially' shift to a policy of no new nuclear?

They've got about 100 ageing reactors, 2 under construction, 2 others cancelled mid build a few years ago, as they wouldn't be economic on completion, and the Nu-Scale SMR's have had a set back with some cancellations, as the costs shot up.

With the amount of land they have, excellent onshore wind resources, and better PV than us*, new nuclear may simply not be economically viable anymore? Storage costs are tumbling, and California just commissioned a 3.3GWh storage facility.

*Any time I post in the BTL section of a news article that apart from Alaska, all the US states have better PV gen than the UK, a person (or two) from Washington State, usually Seattle, will point to their crappy wet climate. But the rest of Washington State does 'beat' the UK. :surrender:
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Moxi
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Re: HPC

#40

Post by Moxi »

https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/uknews/o ... a2c4&ei=69

meanwhile back at Hinkley C it just keeps going wrong, stakeholder management this time.

As I read it they need to rethink the sea water intakes and manage the fish problem rather than trying to dodge the issue and at the same time put their foot in it with some of the locals.

Moxi
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