camelot-forum.co.uk

Tricky - haven't read this in detail yet, but report suggests Labour may need to commission some new gas power stations as baseload and for occasional backup supply
This is largely due to new nuclear capacity arriving too late, along with existing gas plants reaching end of life and decisions on whether Drax which generates UK power by burning American forests) should continue in operation requiring ongoing, large, UK taxpayer subsidies.
It’s not clear whether the report takes into account other schemes like the Morocco UK interconnector due around 2030.. but may be late too

https://www.theguardian.com/environment ... onise-grid

I think replacing old CCGT with new makes sense, as we steadily transition.

But I wonder if there will be more of a shift to OCGT. Yes, less efficient, but cheaper and faster to build. Able to ramp up and down faster.

I mentioned this a few years ago after reading a report, that showed quite a large increase in UK gas capacity, but alongside a falling generation/consumption of gas. Hence the switch to OCGT due to the ever lower capacity factors.

DNV’s - Energy Transition Outlook UK 2022


Edit - Just downloaded the 2024 report, but haven't read it yet. Just wanted to post a paragraph from the leccy/gas section:

Gas-fired power plant capacity will increase until the late 2030s, but then gradually reduce as older plants coming off-line are no longer replaced. We also see their capacity factor reducing from around 40% today to below 10% in 2050, reflecting their increasing role to provide dispatchable backup power during low production periods of wind and solar.

The report from which the Guardian article was based upon.
https://nepc.raeng.org.uk/media/uoqclnr ... report.pdf

NO

But what it will need is more nimble gas that does not mind being turned up and down and is profitable in the low capacity factor world. The existing gas plants are not those so we will need new plants. They will have to be cheap and probably inefficient and could even be ICE engines as are most of the present standby capacity. Infrastructure is constantly being renewed/replaced so its no big deal.

As with all reports i do not see much vision of the future. eg

Repowering onshore wind
V2G
Universal smart meters/ TOU tariff/demand mangement
Dropping batts and PV prices giving more bangs for bucks
Efficiencies from using leccy over FF

For me the missing key is pylons and transmission line upgrades and connections which is holding back RE.

Just for scale, I've copied some of the pics from the DNV report. Looking good, not perfect, but good.

There is a hope that the gas figure will be even better, due to potential CCS, or fueled from green H2 or stored bio-gas. Fingers crossed.

H₂ is one of the smallest molecules in the cosmos. If we consider putting that in already leaking propane infrastructure we're headed for Hindenburg 2.0 on an urban scale.

We'd be far better storing it in a hydride but that's "anti-capitalist" because it would return control of supply to the populace and reduce inequality.



If we want to solve the problem instead of gaslighting our way to our own self-destruction making a more indulgent predatory parasitic administrative class on the way (hey!..private bunkers are expensive man!) then we need to nationalise power production and integrate it into home economics class at school. It's also illegal to compete with a national grid currently; state monopoly protective measure.

Once we decentralise, transmission lines are not a priority (never was an issue, it's a red herring; if we implement ARN4105 you can't overload a transformer). Production at point of use has a massive benefit from the increased efficiency therein.

Theirs nothing wrong with having gas turbines as part of the energy mix, what we fuel them with is the question, there's been a lot of research in to fuelling a gas turbine generator with hydrogen.

https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/a ... 9921039768,

Well worth a download and its free, economically using excess solar and wind power to produce hydrogen which is subsequently used to fuel CCGT's when solar and wind are underperforming and we require additional input isn't going to happen is we rely on the free market to provide the infrastructure BUT as a state owned strategy it does provide reliable "green" power at the scale we require while avoiding the risks of trying to use it in the existing national natural gas infrastructure which as Saladin has said is just begging for a disaster!

Off shoot of such a strategy to improve the economics ? Hydrogen is a bloody lovely reducing agent and so any excess hydrogen production post that required for generation could be directed to UK industries such as smelters, fine chemical production etc.

Again I have said before that if we develop the economy around an abundance of cheap power production then our export potential improves significantly without unnecessary pressure on salaries and profit margins.

We just need the impetus to follow the strategy

Moxi

There is already significant demand for hydrogen in industry and even more with green steel and fertilisers so i fail to see why anyone would want to produce green H2 just to burn.

Saladin wrote: ↑Tue Jul 23, 2024 12:45 pm
H₂ is one of the smallest molecules in the cosmos. If we consider putting that in already leaking propane infrastructure we're headed for Hindenburg 2.0 on an urban scale.

Hi, just to explain / clarify. Absolutely shouldn't use H2 for space heating nor road transport. Heat pumps and BEV's are many times more efficient.

However, there will be issues covering all the edge cases for national leccy supply. RE will be dominant, and battery storage should easily cover intraday balancing. But medium term storage and long term storage will be far trickier.

The PHS thread shows what's possible and that's great. But we may have a need for storing greater amounts of excess RE, and greater shortages in volume and time too. That's where green H2 may be useful and viable. [But to be clear, I'm dubious myself.]

So we use the excess RE to produce green H2, which can then, when needed, be used to power the gas generation fleet. Losses will be a problem, but it should be manageable for this role using the appropriate type of steel.

I'm dubious because the final efficiency is pretty low, and the volume of H2 storage needed for long term UK needs, would require the use of old gas and oil wells, salt caverns etc. But it may be better to use them for CAES (compressed air energy storage) rather than H2. We will also have a large demand for green H2 for fertiliser, steel etc , before there's enough excess for energy storage.

Hence why I'm dubious about this. But if it is viable, then filling in the generation gaps using CCGT or OCGT power stations running on green H2 from RE, would be a nice solution.