camelot-forum.co.uk

Hmmm, Not like Milliband to do this so I suspect there's more to the story than is reported - shame, but I do reckon the subsea cable security issue is probably a pivotal element in the decision.

What I don't understand is why Xlink thinks its necessary to run a 4,000 kilometre cable when they could simply cable to Spain and supply Europe and the UK via other grids? Is it simply that they would have to pay others for use of the infrastructure and so profits would be lower albeit against lower capex in the first place ?

Moxi

https://www.msn.com/en-gb/money/other/m ... 69a4&ei=16

I suspect it's a combination of legitimate concerns about cable security, not having 100% trust in Morocco as a reliable energy partner, not having 100% confidence in XLinks being able to raise the money, a huge lobbying effort by the Nuclear Lobby to spend money on SizewellC and SMR sites, and a political wish to look like the Govt is spending more money on projects closer to home/spending in the UK in general.

If I were XLinks I would have been exploring alternative European countries closer to Morocco for the link on the other end in any case - less cable length would surely mean a quicker and therefore cheaper build. There have been rumours of discussions with Germany, but as you say, wouldn't it make more sense to just drop into Spain and go from there...

Hi Dan,

If I was the Xlinks CEO I think my head would have been cheaper short cable to Spain saves me X million Euro's which equals Y more PV panels and mounts with gives me Z more MW and I have the ability to sell my power across the whole of Europe and beyond. I must be missing something as I would have thought that would significantly de risk the CAPEX and OPEX and ring fence the returns ?

Moxi

I think XLinks is primarily a UK-run business. So I guess from their POV they were thinking initially about it being a project for the UK energy market.
But yes I agree, it was always somewhat bonkers of an idea to run billions of quids worth of cables past several thousand KM of existing EU grids!

Could it be because of this line (my bold):

The government's move to snub Xlinks after protracted talks with the company will come as a surprise to energy industry executives given the company's pledge to deliver large quantities of power at a price roughly half of that to be generated by new nuclear power stations.

whilst the Gov is desperate to complete the financing approval for SZC?


When they were trying to get HPC costs OK'd they produced these estimates for 2030 costs (priced in 2012 baseline), which the HoL suggested were designed to make nuclear look good, and RE look bad:

Gov prediction for 2030 (2012 pricing)
Onshore wind to be in the range £45-72/MWh
Offshore wind will be in the range £85-109/MWh
Nuclear, at £69-99/MWh.
Solar they predicted £59-73/MW

The last CfD auction (impacted by higher cost spikes from the Ukraine invasion and gas prices) came in at:
Onshore wind - £50.90/MWh
Offshore wind - £58.87/MWh
Solar - £50.07/MWh

Mart,

Given the standards and behaviours of successive governments over my lifetime I am inclined to think that your post has more than a soupcon of validity to it more the shame.

I really yearn for a government, and opposition, one day, that remembers and behaves solely in the interests of the country and the people for whom they work.

Moxi

Moxi wrote: ↑Thu Jun 26, 2025 9:55 am Hi Dan,

If I was the Xlinks CEO I think my head would have been cheaper short cable to Spain saves me X million Euro's which equals Y more PV panels and mounts with gives me Z more MW and I have the ability to sell my power across the whole of Europe and beyond. I must be missing something as I would have thought that would significantly de risk the CAPEX and OPEX and ring fence the returns ?

Moxi

Would this not result in similar problems that we have in moving power down from Scotland to the south of England, i. the spanish/french/etc grids not having enough current capacity? Increasig that capacity overland might be significantly more expensive that going round by sea and splitting into northern Frnace/Belgium/The Netherlands/?UK. Anyone got an idea of cabling costs across Spain compare with dropping a longer cable in the Ocean?

Just to add, in the interest of fairness, I think the article is quoting an old and low figure for the link at £48/MWh. I'm sure I recognise that number from the past, but I don't know if it was ever 'official'.

Looking at the Xlinks FAQ, they have a far more (I think) reasonable figure of £70-£80, and of course these are 2012 baseline figures, so comparable to HPC's £89.50 (not the current index-linked cost of £127).

When we look at our internal cost projections as they stand today, we would envisage a strike price range of £70-80 per MWh (2012 pricing), but ultimately the strike price will be determined by DESNZ, who are currently evaluating the project.

Countrypaul wrote: ↑Thu Jun 26, 2025 1:00 pm

Moxi wrote: ↑Thu Jun 26, 2025 9:55 am Hi Dan,

If I was the Xlinks CEO I think my head would have been cheaper short cable to Spain saves me X million Euro's which equals Y more PV panels and mounts with gives me Z more MW and I have the ability to sell my power across the whole of Europe and beyond. I must be missing something as I would have thought that would significantly de risk the CAPEX and OPEX and ring fence the returns ?

Moxi

Would this not result in similar problems that we have in moving power down from Scotland to the south of England, i. the spanish/french/etc grids not having enough current capacity? Increasig that capacity overland might be significantly more expensive that going round by sea and splitting into northern Frnace/Belgium/The Netherlands/?UK. Anyone got an idea of cabling costs across Spain compare with dropping a longer cable in the Ocean?

That could quite feasibly be the case and might be the element that I was missing in my reasoning.

Moxi

You don't put 25% of your countries power supply in the hands of another country. Sorry Morroco but you're not a stable enough platform. One of the best North African states though.

You certainly don't rely on a multiple 000's K set of lines in relatively shallow water either. There's a lot can go wrong there by misfortune or worst case misdeed.

Maybe on a different planet with different species running the show?

As to the threat to move the project? Crack on then, bye!

https://www.current-news.co.uk/x-links- ... -progress/