Germany is going GREEN by burning 26% COAL

[Mart]

Not sure if folk have checked out the link, but the first chart is probably one of the most important, especially given the arguments perhaps 10yrs ago, that moving to RE would impact the economy and slow down growth. So the chart may be an eye-opener for those folk (not going to be patrons of a site like this), and one I've used several times (in the past) during such discussions.

[marshman]

Not really, yes it shows a bit of growth but it appears to be the "weakest" increase since 2007 - 2009 (assume that hiatus was caused by the "financial" and banking crash), certainly nothing like as strong growth as the 10 year period 2009 to 2019.

I would also comment that whilst I find your posts interesting I find a) the number of abbreviations/anacronyms "hardwork" and b) in this case you make reference to one chart, when I query it you then present 2 others. One showing capacity and one showing generation. To me you make a lot of assumptions that someone reading this has done as much research and studying as you have.

I only mention it as sometimes I struggle to follow some of the threads as, although the are making important points or asking pertinent questions, it get lots in the jargon and pretty much ends up "preaching to the converted" , and if even I reach the stage that I can't be bothered to understand it all, then the "casual observer" - the ones we really need to get "on board" with the whole RE and Sustainability thing, will just glaze over and clear off elsewhere.

Hope you see this as constructive comment and not criticism

Hiya. You said - "Am I missing something??? Looking at that chart the actual amount of RE has not materially changed for the best part of the last four years."

My first thought was yes, you seem to be missing the increase, shown in the chart. The RE bar in 2022 looks to be about 15% larger than the bar in 2018.

So I copied the chart, from the link, showing that the RE capacity had grown. If you look at the chart, you'll see the RE component starts from a steadily lower position (as other capacity closes), but ends at a steadily higher position. I'd estimate a growth from 2018 to 2022 of about 30GW (120GW rising to 150GW (+25%)). Not sure what's wrong with that?

I then copied the other chart on RE generation (again from the same link I'd supplied), which shows the actual increase in energy, from about 225TWh to 256TWh (+14%). Again I'd suggest that's quite a good increase, though I appreciate if you project the trend line forward, it looks like it would reach 270TWh(?) so a decline, as you suggest. [2021 reflects a poor wind year as I mentioned.]

Edit - For comparison, the UK generated ~135TWh of RE leccy in 2022. But in percentage terms, I think the UK and Germany are very similar, with the UK gaining ground as our off shore wind comes on line.



Sorry about all the acronyms, I really must do better ...... but I'm a little confused why you mention it on this thread, I'm trying to do better, but assumed everyone knew what RE means (renewable energy).



But want to repeat, what I mentioned about Germany earlier. I don't agree with shutting nuclear earlier (unless it faces a refurbishment cost that makes it uneconomical, v's new build RE), so that's hurt their figures, reducing, the reduction in FF generation. But it's important to note that Germany is a net exporter of leccy to France*. It was before the latest round of nuclear problems in France, and more so the last year or two. So some of the consumption in France will have resulted in increased FF generation in Germany (and other countries, UK included).

*This point can get contentious, as France exoprts a lot of excess nuclear generation to countries via Germany, but actual consumption of leccy by Germany from France, and vice versa, shows that France is a net importer from Germany. [Note, things have been turned somewhat upside down the last two years, with French exports reduced, and imports increased.]

Not looking for a "tit for tat" argument here (yet I respond ), trying to keep it light hearted. Last post on the matter from me.

My initial comment was in response to your statement that RE growth in Germany continues "strong". I still say, even after looking at the other charts you posted, that Germany's RE growth is no where near as "strong" as at times in the past as I stated. And I don't think I suggested a decline, just a much slower rate of growth i.e. not "strong" (subjective term I know). Why do I mention it - because I am getting fed up with Britain bashing from almost every quarter, not just on here, not just RE, but all over. Yes we as a country are not perfect, yes we can do better (a lot better in places), but elsewhere is often no better. Comments like Germany's RE growth "continues strong" when the reality is that it has slowed significantly (may have picked up again now but not shown on your initial chart) end up passing into internet folklore when not strictly true.

Regarding acronyms - sorry I wasn't explicit in explaining that I was not specifically referring to your post on this thread but to many of yours (and others) posts in other threads. and of course I know what RE stands for, but then I will assume you were being slightly tongue in cheek with that comment - it stands for Rough Estimate - well it does in my world

Right now I have got that off my chest I'm off out to tidy the hedges, stake up a few bushes etc. after last weeks gales.

[Mart]

I'm genuinely trying to chat in good faith. I thought the charts showed that Germany's growth in RE continues to be strong. You may disagree, but the use of three ???'s seemed a bit rude and unnecessary. I don't believe there has been a tit for tat argument, since at no point was I arguing with you. I posted some info, you claimed it wasn't true, but asked what you were missing, so I added more graphs to show the continued strong growth. I honestly believed you had missed the growth, as the original graph is not the easiest to look at, but as I said, about 15% growth over the period that you claimed showed no material change.

I've tried to explain (and defend) the information, demonstrating that it does look like you've missed the continued growth. So absolutely no idea why you are taking offence, and having a go at me.

You even take offence at my agreeing with you. I didn't say you'd said RE had declined over the 4yr period, I pointed out that looking at the chart with the RE growth curve, we can see a decline in the growth, I even suggested a figure of 270TWh, to make my comment clearer. So again, I have no idea why you are trying to argue, even on a point where I agreed in the hope you would see I was being fair.

Asa for claims of UK bashing, why on earth are you saying that to me? I've pointed out that the UK's RE percentage is similar to Germany's, and in fact I think we've been gaining on them, which is surely a positive statement.

I'm only on here for a friendly chat and exchange of info, and think you owe me an apology for your comments on this thread, though I appreciate you may have misunderstood me.

Yes the RE comment was tongue in cheek, yet another attempt by me to show some humour, rather than to bluntly point out that I hadn't posted any acronymns on here, that folk wouldn't know. I could have been rude like yourself, but choose not to.

[Joeboy]

I'm genuinely trying to chat in good faith. I thought the charts showed that Germany's growth in RE continues to be strong. You may disagree, but the use of three ???'s seemed a bit rude and unnecessary. I don't believe there has been a tit for tat argument, since at no point was I arguing with you. I posted some info, you claimed it wasn't true, but asked what you were missing, so I added more graphs to show the continued strong growth. I honestly believed you had missed the growth, as the original graph is not the easiest to look at, but as I said, about 15% growth over the period that you claimed showed no material change.

I've tried to explain (and defend) the information, demonstrating that it does look like you've missed the continued growth. So absolutely no idea why you are taking offence, and having a go at me.

You even take offence at my agreeing with you. I didn't say you'd said RE had declined over the 4yr period, I pointed out that looking at the chart with the RE growth curve, we can see a decline in the growth, I even suggested a figure of 270TWh, to make my comment clearer. So again, I have no idea why you are trying to argue, even on a point where I agreed in the hope you would see I was being fair.

Asa for claims of UK bashing, why on earth are you saying that to me? I've pointed out that the UK's RE percentage is similar to Germany's, and in fact I think we've been gaining on them, which is surely a positive statement.

I'm only on here for a friendly chat and exchange of info, and think you owe me an apology for your comments on this thread, though I appreciate you may have misunderstood me.

Yes the RE comment was tongue in cheek, yet another attempt by me to show some humour, rather than to bluntly point out that I hadn't posted any acronymns on here, that folk wouldn't know. I could have been rude like yourself, but choose not to.

Mart, you rock, you really do!

An absolute gentleman, I'd love to meet you in the real.

[marshman]

__

[Mart]

Many thanks guys, and I thought I'd have a dig into the UK v's Germany numbers. Not so much a competition, though it is kinda fun, but as marshman points out (and I took a guess at), it looks like the UK has gained some ground on Germany in %age terms.

First caveat, I'm trying to use Government publications for end of year summaries, but even so, I'm sure it's possible to get different numbers, almost as if they change when I'm not looking. But hopefully they are consistent (enough) and comparable to the German method of calculation.

Caveat 2, because of imports and exports, the numbers I'm using are basic, so may not be fair. As mentioned previously, Germany may be burning additional FF's to help France at the moment, and I'm pretty sure the UK was doing similar. So RE %age's will be skewed, so I think they are OK over a 4yr period (2018 results v's 2022), but more a trend line than a fully honest comparison.

So, what did I find, looks like the UK generated 111.1TWh from RE in 2018, and 134.8TWh in 2022, so that's an increase of 21.32%.
But the German numbers grow from ~225TWh to 256TWh, an increase of 13.78%.
So Germany's increase of ~31TWh is more than the UK's 23.7TWh, but like for like Marshman is correct that Germany is not growing as impressively as the UK. [Edit - Just to be clear, that's quite a significant difference, and a big 'win' for the UK.]

Caveat 3, I'm a bit concerned that the lumpyness of RE capacity deployment will throw up inconsistencies, but I think 4yrs might be long enough to average it out, plus the UK is closing in on Germany's 44.6% (with 41.4%) and we've contracted some huge amounts of off shore wind in the last 2 CfD auctions (contract for difference auction, the subsidy mechnism under which the UK supports supply side renewables)that are yet to be commissioned. So hopefully if I'm flattering the UK's rise, then it's OK as our strong growth going forward is guaranteed for another 4yrs+, and I doubt it will slow down, given the falling CfD strike prices, and the move to annual auctions starting this year.

Caveat 4, one for other members to educate me - Something is nagging away at my brain, that the UK's ability to lean more heavily on off-shore wind, somehow distorts the comparison with Germany. I'm thinking that 'cheap' off-shore wind, with higher cf's (capacity factor (or load factor)) gives us an edge. But even if that's true, does it matter?


Sorry for all the waffle, and the digression away from the OP (original post) and thread subject, but this caught my interest, so hopefully others will enjoy the numbers, and a quick ponder.


One slight negative though, and this is a big guess, but I suspect the Gov policies designed to hinder on-shore wind deployments, and undermine demand side PV, by withdrawing support, when a small level of support was still needed, may have cost us 10GW of each, since 2015(ish). Taking cf's into account, I think that works out at around 3.5GW of average generation that has been lost, which is close to 10% of UK demand, and would have lifted our figure for 2022 from 41.4% to ~50%. But am I bitter and twisted ...... yeah, not gonna be able to get away with denying that one!

[ALAN/ALAN D]

Ref. " An absolute gentleman, I'd love to meet you in the real. "

Have met Mr Mart. Fully Agree.