camelot-forum.co.uk

Last three Nuclear power stations shutting down by midnight today.

Germany is going GREEN by burning 26% COAL


https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-65260673

Beyond the headline what is the plan for the next 18 months? ..because I cannot honestly believe its just being left at coal to fill the gap, so what is in the non-gas pipeline for german energy security.

If it is, I shudder.

Got me looking at the Wikipedia entry. Strong growth in renewables at least, and decent targets.

It is sobering to think how much brown coal they would have squeezed out of they'd priorities that over squeezing out nuclear. I wonder why they reduced black coal burning before brown? I thought the latter was worst.

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Renewab ... in_Germany

Slight aside. Lazard cost of energy 2023 just out. Disappointingly renewable costs up year on year for the first time. Hopefully temporary.

I like this site when looking at Germany's progress:

Germany’s energy consumption and power mix in charts




Incredible progress, but everything is working against them currently. They have their early shutdown of nuclear, which seems like overkill. Then the Ukraine invasion pushing some gen from gas to black coal. And France's nuclear woes with all of their nuclear shutdowns for repair, meaning increased brown/black coal generation to feed them.

But their rollout of RE continues strong, so an impressive long term shift/trend, but messy short term .... very messy!

Mart wrote: ↑Sun Apr 16, 2023 10:41 am I like this site when looking at Germany's progress:

Germany’s energy consumption and power mix in charts




Incredible progress, but everything is working against them currently. They have their early shutdown of nuclear, which seems like overkill. Then the Ukraine invasion pushing some gen from gas to black coal. And France's nuclear woes with all of their nuclear shutdowns for repair, meaning increased brown/black coal generation to feed them.

But their rollout of RE continues strong, so an impressive long term shift/trend, but messy short term .... very messy!

Am I missing something??? Looking at that chart the actual amount of RE has not materially changed for the best part of the last four years.

Does this chart (same link) help? More capacity, though of course generation will vary by year.

Or this chart showing the growth of RE each year (note the poor wind year we had too, in 2021):

Not really, yes it shows a bit of growth but it appears to be the "weakest" increase since 2007 - 2009 (assume that hiatus was caused by the "financial" and banking crash), certainly nothing like as strong growth as the 10 year period 2009 to 2019.

I would also comment that whilst I find your posts interesting I find a) the number of abbreviations/anacronyms "hardwork" and b) in this case you make reference to one chart, when I query it you then present 2 others. One showing capacity and one showing generation. To me you make a lot of assumptions that someone reading this has done as much research and studying as you have.

I only mention it as sometimes I struggle to follow some of the threads as, although the are making important points or asking pertinent questions, it get lots in the jargon and pretty much ends up "preaching to the converted" , and if even I reach the stage that I can't be bothered to understand it all, then the "casual observer" - the ones we really need to get "on board" with the whole RE and Sustainability thing, will just glaze over and clear off elsewhere.

Hope you see this as constructive comment and not criticism

Hmm, I do like Mart's posts myself. Especially the optimism , but I also like my charts and I'm terrible for acronyms myself. Take the point we should think of the audience. Something for me to remember too.

marshman wrote: ↑Sun Apr 16, 2023 6:03 pm Not really, yes it shows a bit of growth but it appears to be the "weakest" increase since 2007 - 2009 (assume that hiatus was caused by the "financial" and banking crash), certainly nothing like as strong growth as the 10 year period 2009 to 2019.

I would also comment that whilst I find your posts interesting I find a) the number of abbreviations/anacronyms "hardwork" and b) in this case you make reference to one chart, when I query it you then present 2 others. One showing capacity and one showing generation. To me you make a lot of assumptions that someone reading this has done as much research and studying as you have.

I only mention it as sometimes I struggle to follow some of the threads as, although the are making important points or asking pertinent questions, it get lots in the jargon and pretty much ends up "preaching to the converted" , and if even I reach the stage that I can't be bothered to understand it all, then the "casual observer" - the ones we really need to get "on board" with the whole RE and Sustainability thing, will just glaze over and clear off elsewhere.

Hope you see this as constructive comment and not criticism

Hiya. You said - "Am I missing something??? Looking at that chart the actual amount of RE has not materially changed for the best part of the last four years."

My first thought was yes, you seem to be missing the increase, shown in the chart. The RE bar in 2022 looks to be about 15% larger than the bar in 2018.

So I copied the chart, from the link, showing that the RE capacity had grown. If you look at the chart, you'll see the RE component starts from a steadily lower position (as other capacity closes), but ends at a steadily higher position. I'd estimate a growth from 2018 to 2022 of about 30GW (120GW rising to 150GW (+25%)). Not sure what's wrong with that?

I then copied the other chart on RE generation (again from the same link I'd supplied), which shows the actual increase in energy, from about 225TWh to 256TWh (+14%). Again I'd suggest that's quite a good increase, though I appreciate if you project the trend line forward, it looks like it would reach 270TWh(?) so a decline, as you suggest. [2021 reflects a poor wind year as I mentioned.]

Edit - For comparison, the UK generated ~135TWh of RE leccy in 2022. But in percentage terms, I think the UK and Germany are very similar, with the UK gaining ground as our off shore wind comes on line.



Sorry about all the acronyms, I really must do better ...... but I'm a little confused why you mention it on this thread, I'm trying to do better, but assumed everyone knew what RE means (renewable energy).



But want to repeat, what I mentioned about Germany earlier. I don't agree with shutting nuclear earlier (unless it faces a refurbishment cost that makes it uneconomical, v's new build RE), so that's hurt their figures, reducing, the reduction in FF generation. But it's important to note that Germany is a net exporter of leccy to France*. It was before the latest round of nuclear problems in France, and more so the last year or two. So some of the consumption in France will have resulted in increased FF generation in Germany (and other countries, UK included).

*This point can get contentious, as France exoprts a lot of excess nuclear generation to countries via Germany, but actual consumption of leccy by Germany from France, and vice versa, shows that France is a net importer from Germany. [Note, things have been turned somewhat upside down the last two years, with French exports reduced, and imports increased.]