Part ownership of a Ripple Wind Turbine, fancy it?

[John_S]

Let's see what happens on 31 March as they are forecasting the turbine at max output for the whole day.

If actual out put is no where near that and the wind performs as forecast, Sarah has a lot of explaining to do.

Even if she says that they are gradually increasing the maximum power that they will let it generate, or that the manufacturer is investigating, she needs to step up and say something.

Silence will not get people to invest in WT2.

[AE-NMidlands]

I am wondering how or what our dasboard will show when wind generation is curtailed? Maybe just full output all day and money unaffected, just made up from the grid payment instead?
A

[nowty]

I am wondering how or what our dasboard will show when wind generation is curtailed? Maybe just full output all day and money unaffected, just made up from the grid payment instead?
A

WT1 is not subject to curtailment as its too small, the only curtailment is likely to be if transformer maintenance is required by the DNO. There are also some temporary emergency powers which could be invoked, which the grid applied for over the May bank holiday during a Covid lockdown. But in the end the powers were never used.

The is a note on our Ripple accounts that if there is no wind, our actual generation amounts might show negative as the turbine still uses some leccy, but that would not be taken off our credits as that's included as part of the operating costs.

[Joeboy]

Let's see what happens on 31 March as they are forecasting the turbine at max output for the whole day.

If actual out put is no where near that and the wind performs as forecast, Sarah has a lot of explaining to do.

Even if she says that they are gradually increasing the maximum power that they will let it generate, or that the manufacturer is investigating, she needs to step up and say something.

Silence will not get people to invest in WT2.

The WT was meant to be running flat out on the 19th and the live hourly updates on the graph on the hour that had just passed that day showed this to be 'true' all the way to midnight. Yet that 62kWh day turned into a 33kWh day yesterday when they updated the graphs. I expect the generation data displayed on the current day of generation for the previous hour to be true not prediction....

[nowty]

The strong wind forecast for the 31st is a Northerly wind so likely to be quite turbulent from the much larger welsh hills to the north. Forecast is for a better westerly flow in about a weeks time.

It will be interesting to see what the baseline max generation will be like for each wind direction.

WT2 at Kirk Hill looks a much better site all round though, just need to wait another couple of years.

[SafetyThird]

Without going through over 100 pages to see everything that's been written, I've gone through the first few pages and looked at Ripple's website. I'm considering investing in the current round and trying to work out how much I'd need to invest.

My recent annual bills showed import of 11700kwh of electricity, which cost just over £2k and our costs went up 62% from November 1st. Our house heats with electricity now we have a GSHP instead of storage heaters but seems to have used about the same amount of energy over the first three months of this year compared to last year

Ripple reckon an average house using 2900kwh/year so we seem to be heavy users of electricity but we're not on gas or oil, just logs and storage heaters up to last autumn and GSHP with occasional log use from now on.

My generation each year is around 5800kwh off 6kw of solar.

I'm about to put in roughly 10kwh of battery though that won't change the actual amount of energy used, but hopefully make almost all of it off peak prices, and will be buying an EV later this year so probably will use more electricity going forward.

So, ripple is saying that buying 100% of my usage will cost £6800 and save me £495 annually on my bill so payback time is 14 years.

Am I missing something in my figures as that's a pretty long payback.

[Joeboy]

Without going through over 100 pages to see everything that's been written, I've gone through the first few pages and looked at Ripple's website. I'm considering investing in the current round and trying to work out how much I'd need to invest.

My recent annual bills showed import of 11700kwh of electricity, which cost just over £2k and our costs went up 62% from November 1st. Our house heats with electricity now we have a GSHP instead of storage heaters but seems to have used about the same amount of energy over the first three months of this year compared to last year

Ripple reckon an average house using 2900kwh/year so we seem to be heavy users of electricity but we're not on gas or oil, just logs and storage heaters up to last autumn and GSHP with occasional log use from now on.

My generation each year is around 5800kwh off 6kw of solar.

I'm about to put in roughly 10kwh of battery though that won't change the actual amount of energy used, but hopefully make almost all of it off peak prices, and will be buying an EV later this year so probably will use more electricity going forward.

So, ripple is saying that buying 100% of my usage will cost £6800 and save me £495 annually on my bill so payback time is 14 years.

Am I missing something in my figures as that's a pretty long payback.

They err on the side of caution in the predictions. I think WT1 was predicted to be 4.5p per kwh at the start. The reality after the last year's turmoil is 9.5p per kWh generated.

In saying that just like the market. It can rise and fall and your price per kWh is fixed once per year. Fuel prices are always on an upward trend on a couple of year timeline. For that reason alone I went in. Once the thought of inflation eroding the real-time value of my initial investment materialised I jumped in with both feet.

[John_S]

There are two big uncertainties in the forecast.

First, the amount of electricity generated by the turbine. Actual wind speeds over a long period (years?) can be measured and the generation amount predicted. Ripple has used a P50 prediction which basically means that the predicted generation, over 12 months, will be achieved half the time. It could be better, it could be worse and the measurements could be wrong. Ripple's forecast is for 36.6% of the nameplate capacity which is a typical figure for wind farms.

Second, how much can Ripple sell the electricity for. They are basing the return on some relatively old Government figures of 4.5p (6.5p less ~2p annual costs) and slowly rising. Their first turbine at Graig Fartha is earning its investors 9.5p. Thus there is a lot of upside potential in the return if the new normal for energy costs remain. It is a case of if costs stay high, our income is high and that is good. If costs go down, our cost of buying electricity goes down and also is good. Heads I win, tails you lose. We don't get free electricity but we do get a very good hedge against the wholesale cost, accepting that we still have to pay the transmission and distribution costs and all the other levies and add ons to the electricity bill.

Finally, remember most of us are doing this as much for the environment as for a financial gain. Think altruistically.

[SafetyThird]

thanks both, that's very helpful. Yes, the altruism has always been a part of this. I got interested in alternative energy at 15 years old and over the past 40 years have dreamed of living off grid. However, life generally has different plans but I bought solar as soon as I was able and am now moving to batteries and more solar, with the turbine as a hedge for the future and also to keep my consumption as green as possible.

I'll see what I can make happen with the investment.

[Joeboy]

Kirkhill buy in extended to midnight on 3rdMay 22