Part ownership of a Ripple Wind Turbine, fancy it?

[Joeboy]

What magic is this? Predicted 16.00 to 17.00 0.58kWh, actual power 0.58kWh. That is a first!

not quite: from the 8th to the 10th and 15 to 17 May I got more than predicted (on a daily basis), but the rest has been all over the place, generally around 50% - or less.
Not grumbling, just saying.
A

My memory is of huge spikes of promise turning into very little. I AM grumbling.

[Joeboy]

Today is predicted to be a 42kWh day for our share of WT1. Interested to see how it turns out. Yesterday was accurate (for what there was) in comparison to what has been going on before.
This could bode well for the upcoming season

I wonder when the penny dropped with them and Vestas that it wasn't right? AE spotted it months ago!

Not an easy one to call.if it's your first WT as a company and learning as you go. Makes me glad that there is a datafeed back to manufacturer too.

Edit- 42kWh turned out to be 12.5kWh, hmmn.

[Adokforme]

Have to confess that I'm more than a little curious about the figures predicted in the "Next four days" section. Tomorrow looks decidedly mediocre, 3 kWh, inline with wind speeds suggested of 6 knots - SSE, as per the beeb forecast charts. Whereas the following day it rockets up to 30kWh which we've only achieved on four previous occasions, with wind speeds for that day of 11 knots from an easterly direction. I appreciate output does ramp up considerably from lower wind speeds but can't imagine that from 6 -11 knots would see output increase by a factor of ten.
Perhaps I need a more accurate forecasting site.
Any suggestions?

[nowty]

Today is predicted to be a 42kWh day for our share of WT1. Interested to see how it turns out. Yesterday was accurate (for what there was) in comparison to what has been going on before.
This could bode well for the upcoming season

I wonder when the penny dropped with them and Vestas that it wasn't right? AE spotted it months ago!

Not an easy one to call.if it's your first WT as a company and learning as you go. Makes me glad that there is a datafeed back to manufacturer too.

WT1 is a Vensys, not a Vestas.

WT2 will be Enercon's.

[nowty]

Have to confess that I'm more than a little curious about the figures predicted in the "Next four days" section. Tomorrow looks decidedly mediocre, 3 kWh, inline with wind speeds suggested of 6 knots - SSE, as per the beeb forecast charts. Whereas the following day it rockets up to 30kWh which we've only achieved on four previous occasions, with wind speeds for that day of 11 knots from an easterly direction. I appreciate output does ramp up considerably from lower wind speeds but can't imagine that from 6 -11 knots would see output increase by a factor of ten.
Perhaps I need a more accurate forecasting site.
Any suggestions?

I check out Cardiff Airport on XCWeather,

https://xcweather.co.uk/forecast/cardiff_airport

[Joeboy]

Today is predicted to be a 42kWh day for our share of WT1. Interested to see how it turns out. Yesterday was accurate (for what there was) in comparison to what has been going on before.
This could bode well for the upcoming season

I wonder when the penny dropped with them and Vestas that it wasn't right? AE spotted it months ago!

Not an easy one to call.if it's your first WT as a company and learning as you go. Makes me glad that there is a datafeed back to manufacturer too.

WT1 is a Vensys, not a Vestas.

WT2 will be Enercon's.

I was sure I'd swapped that already! Ah well, for posterity.

[Adokforme]

Have to confess that I'm more than a little curious about the figures predicted in the "Next four days" section. Tomorrow looks decidedly mediocre, 3 kWh, inline with wind speeds suggested of 6 knots - SSE, as per the beeb forecast charts. Whereas the following day it rockets up to 30kWh which we've only achieved on four previous occasions, with wind speeds for that day of 11 knots from an easterly direction. I appreciate output does ramp up considerably from lower wind speeds but can't imagine that from 6 -11 knots would see output increase by a factor of ten.
Perhaps I need a more accurate forecasting site.
Any suggestions?

I check out Cardiff Airport on XCWeather,

https://xcweather.co.uk/forecast/cardiff_airport

Many thanks Nowty, that does look more plausible in that case. It will be interesting to see how it turns out.

[nowty]

Have to confess that I'm more than a little curious about the figures predicted in the "Next four days" section. Tomorrow looks decidedly mediocre, 3 kWh, inline with wind speeds suggested of 6 knots - SSE, as per the beeb forecast charts. Whereas the following day it rockets up to 30kWh which we've only achieved on four previous occasions, with wind speeds for that day of 11 knots from an easterly direction. I appreciate output does ramp up considerably from lower wind speeds but can't imagine that from 6 -11 knots would see output increase by a factor of ten.
Perhaps I need a more accurate forecasting site.
Any suggestions?

I check out Cardiff Airport on XCWeather,

https://xcweather.co.uk/forecast/cardiff_airport

Many thanks Nowty, that does look more plausible in that case. It will be interesting to see how it turns out.

Ripple once gave a very complicated explanation of how they estimated the wind forecast for WT1 but it sounded totally over the top and its obviously wrong as its usually so far out optimistically.

The reason that I use Cardiff Airport is that there is a weather station there and its an exposed place. It is also quite a way west of Cardiff and directly south of the wind turbine. The problem with looking at weather stations further north which maybe nearer the wind turbine is they tend to be where people live in valleys and not on the hilltops. And if you put the postcode / location for the wind turbine in an app or website, they either use the nearest weather station or they do an average between different locations where there are weather stations.

[Adokforme]

Thanks again @Nowty that's really appreciated. I wondered why I was mostly disappointed when actual returns didn't seem to live up to expectations, without ever recording previously estimated figures. Have now added a column for that so as to have real data rather than just an impression. Perhaps I should add a second column for wind speed/direction at Cardiff Airport just to get an appreciation of how they stack up in comparison!
Oh dear, the lengths some of us go to.

[nowty]

Thanks again @Nowty that's really appreciated. I wondered why I was mostly disappointed when actual returns didn't seem to live up to expectations, without ever recording previously estimated figures. Have now added a column for that so as to have real data rather than just an impression. Perhaps I should add a second column for wind speed/direction at Cardiff Airport just to get an appreciation of how they stack up in comparison!
Oh dear, the lengths some of us go to.

To be fair to the WT1 it is so far living up to the annual estimated totals especially when you factor this Summer has had much more high pressure than normal. The capacity factor which I now publish every month shows it's not been too far out so far.

Last year the UK was down 20% in average wind resource which was the worst year since 2010 so if the general wind resource is down so will the turbine and vice versa. But these things tend to average out in the long run.

A more troubling issue is these breakdowns and a look at the last Coop minutes for WT1, you can read them from your online account, from "Documents", is that they don't seem to have got to the bottom of the high voltage trip outs it experienced early on with the high winds. It would be a shame if it goes back to tripping out at high output again over the windier months.