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I wasn't sure where to stick this, so to speak, and decided against Dan's interconnector thread as it may be a digression/diversion.

But a thought struck me about the UK reaching zero emissions for leccy generation, but first net zero, a bit like Scotland is managing since it has an export route (the rest of the UK).

Then my thought's turned to the simply enormous potential of off-shore wind we have, and to be fair, the pretty rapid deployment of new off-shore generation ..... and then my brain cross-referenced all this when I was looking at all the interconnectors we had, have, will have shortly.

So, here we go, I see we had about 5GW of interconnectors, have added about 2.4GW this year, and have plans for another 8.5GW by ~2025. Now, even excluding Ireland (since high wind generation will probably mean they won't want more), still leaves us with a massive amount of export potential to mainland Europe (when the wind is strong).

So, is it reasonable to assume that the UK could reach 'net-zero' faster than I'd thought, since we'll be able to export ever more excess wind generation at times, to help displace FF's in Europe? I appreciate we'll also need to be able to get the leccy from the generation to the interconnectors, and that net-zero is just a step in the right direction, not the finishing line, but just wanted to ask (and share) about my somewhat cheerful ponderings this morning.

And for a numeric explanation, in case I haven't explained this well, and I'm massively simplifying it here:

UK RE generation = 100%
UK consumption = 60% RE + 20% FF + 20% FF (import)
UK export = 40% RE

In a simple Mart/man maths World, does that make us net zero?

[I've left out nuclear generation and nuclear import, purely for simplicity of maths.]

That's assuming the grid will have been upgraded enough to accept all the wind genetration on offer...

Are you thinking of just leccy or total energy demand, remembering that leccy is only say a third of total at the moment and destined to be close to 100% .

As you say the interconnectors are as much about us exporting in times of plenty RE. But taking the eg of Scotland then even though they are at 100% net RE leccy they are miles away from !00% total energy and thats before EVs and HPs.

So you may be correct but a bit early to say perhaps.

My understanding is the ability to bring the power onshore and transmit it within the UK (IE from Scotland to London) is the limiting factor currently. There'd be a lot of work to do before we can get the power to the interconnects.

Great concept. Shame our current infrastructure is lacking.

The real solution is to invest in storage near to where the power is generated. This would enable electricity generated from wind to be fed into the grid in a pattern that better reflects fluctuating demand.

Man maths look good - but would the interconnectors be all FF ?

Considering Norway will be predominantly Hydro and France Nuclear, we may well be in negative balance using your model.

Or am I being too simplistic too ?

There are in planning or already in construction or operation plans for 22GW of HVDC from the UK to various continental connection points, including Germany.

There is in planning a further 2 "Bootstrap" HVDCs to enable more renewables from Scotland to be pushed south into the English grid.

So maybe.

Bugtownboy wrote: ↑Thu Sep 30, 2021 1:35 pm Man maths look good - but would the interconnectors be all FF ?

Considering Norway will be predominantly Hydro and France Nuclear, we may well be in negative balance using your model.

Or am I being too simplistic too ?

Good question, let's see if I can get my head around this:

Let's say we have 100 units of RE generation and 20 units of FF generation, so 120 units in total.

We consume 60 RE + 20 FF + 20 RE/N import, and export 40 RE, does that make us net zero, as we've generated 100 RE (120 total) and consumed 100 mixed?

I suppose it's a bit like PV. Until we got a BEV, we were a net exporter, with approx 4,500kWh generation, and a total consumption of about 3,000kWh, so although we consumed some 'dirty' leccy, in total we covered the equal of our demand, and displaced another 1,500kWh.

I can't actually lock my brain down on this for some reason. But it seems to me, that what we really want to do in the UK, is generate more RE leccy, than the total leccy we consume ...... as a starting point.

For me we need to stop burning stuff that has been in the ground for millions of years!

After that we can stop burning stuff that uses FF in its processing / transport (biomass).

Then we'll be done. The whole "net zero" thing does nothing for me.

Anyone know our current potential capability for wind and solar generation ? Just the commercial stuff.