Small things matter

[nowty]

I read in the press that wind generally in Europe has been way, way, down on the normal variation this summer and European gas storage has been significantly depleted over the summer as its been used in great quantities to generate leccy.

So there is some serious concern if Europe has an upcoming cold winter, emergency measures may be required. And cold winters usually mean low wind so its a double whammy.

[Joeboy]

The Eastern European pipelines will provide. That last field I worked on in Egypt (Zohr) and also Saudi have on tap gas reserves which are mind blowing. I wonder how many LNG ships head to China each week now that they are spooling back up? Gotta be putting upward pressure on the prices.

14 deg here today, I'm away to spark up!

[Bugtownboy]

At least with wood, if you’ve got your winter supply all ready by the Summer, you know whatever happens to fuel supply, you’ve got enough to keep warm, cook a hot meal and have a brew.

Even warm some water to have a wash if you really wanted to.

We could always decamp to Lanzarote for Jan-Feb each winter

[Stinsy]

It all means more power to Vlad!

I'm locked in to what turns out to be an ASTONISHING 12 month electricity deal from Octopus. Let's just hope they survive to hold their end of a 12m bargain. I currently pay octopus 2.94p/kWh for gas on a variable tariff which will likely only go in one direction. If I fixed for gas now I'd be paying a higher standing charges and c. 5p/kWh.

It is likely that for me at least, resistive heating will be cheaper than gas (during the Octopus Go period). Time to order that storage heater...

[Stinsy]

So there is some serious concern if Europe has an upcoming cold winter, emergency measures may be required.

What sort of measures? Shutting down industrial energy users? Cutting outgoing HVDC interconnects?

[nowty]

So there is some serious concern if Europe has an upcoming cold winter, emergency measures may be required.

What sort of measures? Shutting down industrial energy users? Cutting outgoing HVDC interconnects?

Yep, mainly industrial users and that includes elecy so less gas is needed to generate leccy.

Or regulators allowing emergency price rises on variable tariffs to reduce demand.

Or even government subsidies on paying for extortionate prices for extra LNG shipments.

Actual leccy power cuts would be the last resort.

And unfortunately more coal to be burnt within Europe.

[Joeboy]

At least with wood, if you’ve got your winter supply all ready by the Summer, you know whatever happens to fuel supply, you’ve got enough to keep warm, cook a hot meal and have a brew.

Even warm some water to have a wash if you really wanted to.

We could always decamp to Lanzarote for Jan-Feb each winter

You have read my mind, I reckon we are good for split logs for at least two years. I will soon be putting together my little external back boiler onto a test radiator to see what sort of heat transfer I can achieve. Got the ldea from one of the lads last year.

I normally spend Feb over in Turkey at our place doing works. Soak up that Winter sun like a fat lizard! Gonna head out next month with the return via being N Cyprus in Nov. F**k Bojo and the dwarf, had enough of being told what to do now!

[Stinsy]

Or even government subsidies on paying for extortionate prices for extra LNG shipments.

That becomes a nightmare if all countries are in the same position! I'm imagining an LNG tanker ship on route from China to Europe while European countries bid against eachother for the load!

[Joeboy]

Or even government subsidies on paying for extortionate prices for extra LNG shipments.

That becomes a nightmare if all countries are in the same position! I'm imagining an LNG tanker ship on route from China to Europe while European countries bid against eachother for the load!

You've done well on the gas price, well done indeed!

China don't have that much of an O&G industry. Well they do but in comparison to the size of the place it's not much. The game might have changed since I've been away but the thing that will keep the pilot lights of Europe burning is the supermajor gas field in the Med. EVERYONE was getting into that and I mean countries not companies. A lot of it can make it to UK via existing pipelines that can bypass Uncle Vlad. Interestingly there are mutterings to kill new dev's in the North Sea.

Bearing in mind that regardless of how we'd like reality to be we need the gas for turbines and raw heat. Rather from across Europe and it's politics or from our own ground with the development procurement being uk based? Sorry, went off topic there. Energy IS power and how it is played out politically can affect us all especially as the rebound is still ongoing. Hopefully a windy Winter then!

P.S NG jumped nearly 6% today.

[nowty]

There is no accurate long term forecast of what the winter will bring, but if its wet, windy and mild, there will be no problem. Most recent winters have been milder in Europe but 2010 to 2013 were colder than average. I recall 2010 here in the UK being especially severe. I was surprised 2018, the beast from the east year is not on that chart but the major cold only started towards the end of Feb so most of it won't be counted.