Why JCB thinks that hydrogen is the best alternative to diesel for heavy machinery.

[spread-tee]

Agreed Mart, H2 is horrible shit that should never have been invented..............

A rather silly attempt to undermine my position regarding H2 vehicles in this discussion, given my repeated support for, and belief in H2 as being a major part of achieving a 100% RE leccy future



/quote]

I can't believe what I am reading Mart, are you really saying you didn't spot the tongue in cheek there? particularly as it was followed by
"seriously though"

I'm not trying to upset anyone, lets call a truce.

Desp

[spread-tee]

Agreed Mart, H2 is horrible shit that should never have been invented..............

A rather silly attempt to undermine my position regarding H2 vehicles in this discussion, given my repeated support for, and belief in H2 as being a major part of achieving a 100% RE leccy future



/quote]

I can't believe what I am reading Mart, are you really saying you didn't spot the tongue in cheek there? particularly as it was followed by
"seriously though"

I'm not trying to upset anyone, lets call a truce.

Desp

PS, this is quite interesting, it lends quite a bit of weight to your arguement with some fairly strong caveats about infrastructure and etc.

https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/a ... 1918318361

TTFN

[spread-tee]

I'm gonna need a bit of time to fully understand this, but the conclusion seems to suggest heavy long distance trucks are going to be difficult to electrify, whereas truck under 26 tonnes particularly carrying high volume low mass loads are suitable with todays tech assuming a good charging infrastructure is in place.
"
This study has shown that electric trucks are already a viable solution for a large share of road freight haulage with medium duty trucks. Improvements to battery capacity and recharging infrastructure may also make electric trucks a viable option for heavy duty rigid trucks and semitrailers. However, electrification of heavy articulated truck-trailer combinations through batteries seems unlikely as the potential remains at a low level even with high battery capacity. Hence, as much as 71% of Swiss road freight transport may be electrified using battery electric trucks, but due to the use of long and heavy truck-trailer combinations, Finland has very limited potential of using battery electric trucks. With the foreseeable battery technology, electrification using electrified roads seems to be the solution in Finland, or reducing emissions through substituting biofuels for diesel. Policymakers may use the results of this study as an overview on the greenhouse gas mitigation potential of battery electric trucks.

Electrification potential may be increased through certain policy measures, such as exempting battery electric trucks from the maximum gross vehicle weight limits, or allowing a 5% increase in gross vehicle weight, which would already enable most of the electrification potential. In addition, development of recharging infrastructure is a prerequisite for electrification of trucks. The policy measures used to promote passenger car charging could be used as a benchmark to promote truck charging. Future research should also include comparison between the alternate ways of electrifying road freight transport, i.e. batteries with charging, batteries with battery swapping and electrified road systems.

Electrification of trucks will have a significant effect on the electricity grid, especially near rest stations and logistics centres, due to high required charging power. There might be dozens of trucks charging simultaneously at the busiest charging stations, which would require charging power of tens of megawatts. Hence, routing-based analysis of the potential of electric trucks would be needed to map the most important charging stations. In order to further analyze the effects on the electricity grid, a spatial analysis by routing the trips reported in the datasets used in this study could be carried out."

Desp

[Mart]

I don't see a real problem with electrifying larger trucks, v's smaller trucks, the same would apply to large SUV's v's a BEV mini.

Power, as discussed, is not the issue, electric motors are far more powerful, and compact, so the issue then becomes one of energy, not power. Full size BEV trucks already exist and are on the road, but have relatively short ranges, though of course this suits a short range market perfectly.

For longer journeys, the issue becomes battery size potential, efficiency and the ease/speed of recharging. Again, I can only repeat what Tesla are claiming, and that may therefore be questioned, however, so far they seem to have delivered on their promises regarding power, efficiency and range, and given that their Semis have been on the road, testing and doing 'real' haulage, for several years now, I'm going to give them the benefit of the doubt.

So, they claim the ability to cover 500 miles at max weight, and recharge extremely quickly, certainly within the legal requirements for driver rests.

Another important, almost crucial point here is the use of 'max weight'. Going back several years I asked advice on forums and the CleanTechnica news site of truck drivers who had joined the discussions. The answer for both the UK and the US, was that 85%+ of full size truck loads were at max volume, not max weight.

[Silly observation, but a week ago Wifey and I were stopped at traffic lights, I was the passenger, and I looked to my left and was surprised to see the wheels of the artic trailer next to me, where smaller than our car wheels, I mentioned this to Wifey and she pulled away slowly so she could see. The trailer had small wheels to give it a much lower floor, it also had a much higher roof ...... and 'Warburtons' written on it. So a very bulky, but also very light load.]

So the crucial questions here now are relatively simple:-

1. Can Tesla build a truck that 'only' consumes 8x as much energy as a car (2kWh/mile at max weight)? I think that sounds OK, and matches a diesel truck v's a diesel car. After all, to maintain speed on a motorway weight is (I think irrelevant), the issues are air resistance and rolling resistance. US specs for Class 8 Trucks (the big ones) give fuel economy figures of 5-8mpg, and those will be smaller US gallons.

2. Can Tesla build battery packs that large, 600kWh and 1MWh for their 300 & 500 mile offerings? Well, they build 100kWh packs for their larger saloons, and they are ramping up both their own battery production, the development of the new 4680 cells, and battery purchases from a number of suppliers.

3. Can they really recharge a 1MWh / 500 mile pack to 80% (400 miles) in 45mins as I suggested? Apparently not! On checking, it seems that range is now being suggested at up to 620 miles, and the 80% recharge time was actually 30mins. For reference, my 75kWh pack can (at the right temp, and below 30% SOC take a charge rate of 250kW, and Tesla recently said they will be upping their V3 Superchargers to 300KW.

So quick maths, if 75kWh can take 250kW, can 1MWh take 1.6MW (800kWh's in 30mins)? The car is taking a charge rate ratio of 3.33 (250/75). The truck would have to cope with 'just' 1.6 average, but to a pretty high 80% SOC. I think the maths work out fine there, with a higher initial charge rate, and a lower rate towards the end.

4. Will there be adequate charging stations, on the main routes? Well, I think Tesla has proven their ability to roll out chargers so far.

5. Cost. At the moment pricing is $150k and $180k for the 300 mile and 500 mile range trucks respectively. I think Tesla suggested that the purchase cost difference of the BEV v's an ICE would take 2-3yrs to recover via reduced fuel and maintenance costs. One of the companies that has ordered some, and may have had a play with one of the test mules, has suggested their calcs show them making back the difference in less than 2yrs.


So, does this prove anything? Not really, we need to see the trucks start shipping, and how their real life performance matches the original launch specs and the testing since then. But the good news is that Tesla may be starting production this year, with an estimated five per week, whilst they work out, and check out the production line, before expanding production.

But based purely on the maths, the specs, and performance against claims by Tesla on other products, I can't see why this isn't possible.


But, there is an elephant in the room - battery weight? Some suggestions that the biggest batt could weigh in around 5tonnes, and perhaps leave the tractor weighing ~2tonnes more than a diesel, after the weight savings of the electric motors and drive gears, v's the engine, turbo's, gearbox, cooling, exhaust, fuel tanks and fuel. I've no idea how the final weights will compare, and of course for all of those loads with max volume not weight, it won't matter. May even be worth considering running 11 BEV's instead of 10 ICE trucks at max weight, if the economics of a BEV truck workout.

[Mart]

Regarding charging infrastructure, obviously it'll take decades to move over to BEV trucks completely, so there is plenty of time. But a snippet from the Transport Evolved channel yesterday (at the 9min mark) mentioned a recent study by the NREL in the US, that the current grid infrastructure could cope with 80-90% of short haul trucking going electric already, with rapid charging. Even more if slower charging is done overnight at depots.



Obviously longer distance trucking, with the need for faster and larger quantities of charging will add more strain, but that's 'just' a matter of rolling out the infrastructure in line with the take-up of big BEV's, akin to the Tesla Supercharger model for cars.

Also includes some B roll of large Volvo BEV tractor units.

[Oliver90owner]

How did the overhead electric-fed convoy system work out, that was tried/demonstrated (in Sweden or Norway)?

That could be an eventual option for a limited number of trunk roads? Better efficiency (or cleaner) than any hydrogen option.

[Mr Gus]

Oliver, there is a piece in the guardian today on that very subject.

https://www.theguardian.com/environment ... er-lorries
Seems that instead of scalping data from that in the 1st instance, our govt are funding a repeat of the thing in the uk (lincolnshire).

Slow moving climate action ..meanwhile in the same paper is video of salmon "boiling" in extreme temperatures.

We are truly screwed, ..never mind what's on the telly!?

[Mart]

Volvo's trials of BEV heavy plant seem to have gone well, so like CAT they seem to be taking this area ever more seriously.


Electric Construction Equipment From Volvo CE Passes One Year Test With Flying Colors

[Mr Gus]

How did the overhead electric-fed convoy system work out, that was tried/demonstrated (in Sweden or Norway)?

That could be an eventual option for a limited number of trunk roads? Better efficiency (or cleaner) than any hydrogen option.

Why does govt think this infrastructure is worthwhile? there are too many crashes into things on roads already, very expensive infrastructure to install & maintain the pylons that will sit "prone" at the sides / centre of roads, ..will also make upgrading expensive roads more so!

A train track typically only has trains on it, not Joe public in various states of mind / control.

[Stan]

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-59107805

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles ... l-with-jcb

JCB has ordered a very large quantity of green hydrogen.