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The weather forum folk are starting to talk about colder weather and I note early next week there is practically no wind for most of Europe and is coinciding with the first cold incursion from the east throughout Europe.

Even if we don't get blackouts this winter, there are likely to be some extreme energy events and price movements especially when wind is very low. So I thought it was worth starting a dedicated thread rather than post randomly on existing threads.

I was wondering whether the UK will be importing or exporting on Tuesday ?. If we are exporting, I am not sure where all our energy will come from as we will be burning everything. If we are importing will Europe be running its gas reserves down too much too early ?

UK wind resource forecast till Monday night and I reckon Tuesday will be worse if that's possible.


I posted this doc on another thread earlier and having read it a bit more I note a lot of it is based on averages but early next week certainly "won't" be an average. Maybe not mega extremely bad but will maybe be a pointer of what's to come.
https://www.nationalgrideso.com/documen ... t%20winter

Peak period 6pm on Tuesday Evening, temps and wind for Europe, getting chilly everywhere.

I'm on agile export

Monday peak is 111p.

That's not chilly, still mainly positive temperatures here in Austria!
Edit, after looking at the chart a bit more it is very mild for this time of year, usually it is much colder to the north east or us so Germany less likely to be exporting to Czech etc.

Swwils wrote: ↑Sun Nov 27, 2022 7:40 pm I'm on agile export

Monday peak is 111p.

Thats what I'm talking about.

EDIT - It might be a bit higher on Tuesday so get those batteries filled.

England V Wales on Tuesday at 7pm, that will almost certainly add some demand

Jinx wrote: ↑Sun Nov 27, 2022 8:54 pm England V Wales on Tuesday at 7pm, that will almost certainly add some demand

But does that mean people will eat early or late ? Its the sort of thing that the national grid have historic stats on.

But its another curve ball for Tuesday.

Pre kick-off cup of tea would be my guess rather than the historic half-time as normal peak will be tailing off by then. Will certainly be interesting.

Jinx wrote: ↑Sun Nov 27, 2022 9:15 pm Pre kick-off cup of tea would be my guess rather than the historic half-time as normal peak will be tailing off by then. Will certainly be interesting.

Extra beer cooling down in fridges too.

Emergency plan likely to be activated tomorrow, not blackouts but the first proper pay to turn down event.
They were saying on Sky news a few minutes ago that National Grid is concerned we might not be able to import from France.
https://www.theguardian.com/business/20 ... rgy-prices

Given the weather, the condition of the French nuclear fleet, the recent spate of us feeding them spare juice and their propensity to stick it to us whenever possible then I have little doubt that there’s any likelihood of them being able to prop us up in the cold snap - much more likely we prop them up when windy.

Question is will coal and gas reserves in UK be spent exporting to Europe for a profit or has HM Government imposed sanctions to prevent the miss use of strategic reserves?

Moxi