Planned(?) expansion of UK PV capacity.

[Mart]

Just wondering if anyone has heard of any plans to rapidly and massively expand the amount of PV capacity in the UK?

I was having a bit of a trawl through some National Grid stuff, looking at RE growth and wind news, and found this, slightly strange, comment:

How much of the UK’s energy is renewable?

It’s anticipated that the UK’s renewable capacity will increase dramatically over the next decade. Plans are already in action to increase offshore wind’s output from 11 GW to 50 GW by 2030 – helped by a £200 million government cash injection and financial incentives. Meanwhile, solar capacity could grow five-fold from 14 GW to roughly 70 GW in the same period.

[My bold.] If I'm reading that correctly, then they are suggesting a massive rollout of PV during the next 8yrs, or possibly 13yrs as the broader context is up to 2035.

The recent CfD was for 2.2GWp for 2023-25, but of course a lot of PV is being rolled out without CfD's.

Just seems too large of an increase, unless I've missed some news. Perhaps it's all hidden in the 'could grow five fold' bit, just like statements of 'upto' tell us little.

[Mart]

Hmmm! The news is so good, I've somehow managed to post two threads. Oops.

Admin, can you help? I may have sorted it. Thanks.

[marshman]

Just read a synopsis of the trading update from SSE and it contains this paragraph:

"Renewables made up less than half of underlying operating profits last year, but the plan is a fivefold increase in capacity to 50TW per year by 2031. This requires a substantial £12.5bn investment over the 5 years to 2026."

[Galahad]

Hmmm! The news is so good, I've somehow managed to post two threads. Oops.

Admin, can you help? I may have sorted it. Thanks.

I can't see a duplicate so assume you sorted it OK.

[nowty]

Just read a synopsis of the trading update from SSE and it contains this paragraph:

"Renewables made up less than half of underlying operating profits last year, but the plan is a fivefold increase in capacity to 50TW per year by 2031. This requires a substantial £12.5bn investment over the 5 years to 2026."

Just got to get the UK Grid up to Nowty Towers standard.

[Ken]

I think this is very doable just looking at the antidotal evidence.

Much expansion as outlined on https://www.solarpowerportal.co.uk/

Then the gov to become net zero by 2030 was it.
Factories have to be EPC B ?/ by 2030
Rented accomadation is going to be EPC C by ???

Solar power portal monitor planning applications etc and their est for 2022 build was aleary 2GW

Most suppliers of domestic PV do not have enough capacity and are not even taking enquires !

[Ken]

https://www.solarpowerportal.co.uk/blog ... hs_of_2022

https://www.solarpowerportal.co.uk/blog ... ing_growth
"ndeed, we have commented regularly over the past couple of years on the growth in commercial rooftop installations and the pipeline of utility-scale ground-mounted projects (now over 40GW)."

[Mart]

Thanks Ken, really good reads.

The fivefold increase by 2030 seems way too high, even to an optimist like me, but a 40GW pipeline is shocking, I'd missed that, so clearly 'never say never'. And whilst I appreciate that lots of projects will fall out and not proceed to completion, I'd hope that with falling costs (inflation aside), more projects will be added to the pipeline than leave over the next 8yrs.

Maybe the current leccy price scare, though ultimately transitory, will encourage (cough> scare <cough) businesses and residential to make the leap to PV on the demand side.

[AE-NMidlands]

https://www.solarpowerportal.co.uk/blog ... hs_of_2022

https://www.solarpowerportal.co.uk/blog ... ing_growth
"Indeed, we have commented regularly over the past couple of years on the growth in commercial rooftop installations and the pipeline of utility-scale ground-mounted projects (now over 40GW)."

and following on in that same article

But, ultimately, the UK does not manufacture products, and is at the whim of Asian supply, raw material price volatility and shipping costs. No slight here: China makes more than 90% of everything these days, and in some cases (for key parts of the value chain, including wafers used in cells) virtually 100%.

So, the UK is now in a fight globally to secure modules made in China (or by Chinese owned facilities in Southeast Asia).

It should be a nice problem for the industry: stratospheric demand in the absence of government hand-outs. But for now, it is a bun fight to secure product globally, and the entities suffering most are those seeking to fulfil gigawatt-plus portfolio build-outs in the near to mid-term.

There are just too many buyers! And over the next few years, many global utilities and corporates will fail to meet their declared goals (as part of net zero aspirations or corporate targets), simply by not getting enough modules.

As such, UK solar is contributing to the huge uptick in global PV demand, but is also subject to the frailties of being just another country controlled by external forces beyond its control.

... To say it is a sellers-market today is a gross understatement.

Can we really not justify setting up a panel-manufacturing plant? Apparent initial price shouldn't be the deciding factor, especially as China has been
undermining everyone else's production costings by using dirty penalty-free coal for decades.

[openspaceman]

If Russia can control Germany with a stranglehold on gas there must be some scope for supporting silicon chip making elsewhere befre China does the same. I thought Australia smelted silicon and it would seem a good place to diversify into wafer production.