Interesting Winter Energy Supply Forecast

[Ken]

Another gloomy article from the FT.
https://www.ft.com/content/620953fa-ced ... 043db119b2

So i have survived the 3 day week, oil embargo, power strikers, coal strikers and people think this is going to work -no chance. The reason being they forget how adaptable human nature is. eg more pullovers worn and more wood fires and...... the list is endless.

[nowty]

Nowty Towers will be keeping to its average of 1kWh per day of gas, so 365 kWh / year target. That's down from 28,000 kWh a decade ago.

Its day 214 for 2022 and the total so far is 229 kWh of gas. I'm a little behind, but I did a quick GCH burn for a short time in April when grid carbon Intensity was very high and I was shocked just how much the GCH eats in just heating up !, I burnt through 20 kWh in very little time before turning it off again.

Whilst its summer with plenty of solar, I've been using the induction hob to perform the initial heat up of things like boiled potatoes. That's shaving around 10kWh a month off my normal gas use, so I expect to make my 2022 gas target.

The second target is to see whether my new air to air heatpumps help to drop the overall cheap rate leccy imports. My annual leccy import is now around 10,000 kWh which includes heating, hot water and 2 EVs. I am hoping the A2A heatpumps will lower the need to boost the storage heaters especially outside of midwinter.

[Oldgreybeard]

We don't have gas, and our annual grid electricity usage used to be around 6,000kWh. That's dropped a bit since the battery system went in a year or so ago and is now around 4,800kWh. I'm still trying to fine tune the way we balance charging the car, charging the house battery and charging the hot water, to try and get the best out of things.

What I really need is an accurate local weather forecast, as the one thing that still needs a fair bit of human input is guessing how much solar generation we're going to get the next day and making sure that we will be able to use or store as much of it as possible. It's very irritating to get a day where the hot water, the house battery and the car are all charged up by lunchtime, the dishwasher and washing machine having been run and the rest of the generation is going mostly to the grid.

[Joeboy]

quote=Oldgreybeard post_id=14996 time=1659431062 user_id=155]
It's very irritating to get a day where the hot water, the house battery and the car are all charged up by lunchtime, the dishwasher and washing machine having been run and the rest of the generation is going mostly to the grid.
[/quote]

Absolutely!

[Joeboy]

Nowty Towers will be keeping to its average of 1kWh per day of gas, so 365 kWh / year target. That's down from 28,000 kWh a decade ago.

Its day 214 for 2022 and the total so far is 229 kWh of gas. I'm a little behind, but I did a quick GCH burn for a short time in April when grid carbon Intensity was very high and I was shocked just how much the GCH eats in just heating up !, I burnt through 20 kWh in very little time before turning it off again.

Whilst its summer with plenty of solar, I've been using the induction hob to perform the initial heat up of things like boiled potatoes. That's shaving around 10kWh a month off my normal gas use, so I expect to make my 2022 gas target.

The second target is to see whether my new air to air heatpumps help to drop the overall cheap rate leccy imports. My annual leccy import is now around 10,000 kWh which includes heating, hot water and 2 EVs. I am hoping the A2A heatpumps will lower the need to boost the storage heaters especially outside of midwinter.

Day 214 statement fairly puts it into perspective! We are a total of 533kWh gas used this year. I put this down to still getting it all running properly(storage heaters, hwt immersion and SWMBO off of gas cooking, the last was a struggle) and I made a few mistakes Jan/Feb while tuning it all in. To be honest I'm rather hacked off that the figure is so high! In saying that, 2015 it was 32,000 kWh gas burned. So a 98.33% reduction is OK for the moment.

I think your new heat pumps will do well for you.

[Moxi]

Yep had that yesterday - although overcast the battery was sat at 100%SoC by 2pm, all the washing was done and the kW's were flowing to the grid to help France

Today, we have been in the cloud base all day, the main array is managing to draw in 521Wp as i type and the days yield is just 481W. Battery 68% and charging away at the leisurely rate of 19.84W

Whilst doing my work my mind is drifting gently back and forth over the options to buy some small panels and where to place them over the winter period to harvest some additional power on the days like today - which in terms of light quality is typical of winter.

The garden across the road is most favourable but that means I would need to charge batteries over there on a DC system and then sack barrow them over to the cottage to back feed some of the house loads on a separate ring?

Otherwise its single panels dotted here and there around the patio ad hope the dogs don't walk on them (or worse!) not keen on my chances there with 5 dogs.

Still there are worse problems to have

Moxi.

[Mart]

Nowty Towers will be keeping to its average of 1kWh per day of gas, so 365 kWh / year target. That's down from 28,000 kWh a decade ago.

Its day 214 for 2022 and the total so far is 229 kWh of gas. I'm a little behind, but I did a quick GCH burn for a short time in April when grid carbon Intensity was very high and I was shocked just how much the GCH eats in just heating up !, I burnt through 20 kWh in very little time before turning it off again.

Whilst its summer with plenty of solar, I've been using the induction hob to perform the initial heat up of things like boiled potatoes. That's shaving around 10kWh a month off my normal gas use, so I expect to make my 2022 gas target.

The second target is to see whether my new air to air heatpumps help to drop the overall cheap rate leccy imports. My annual leccy import is now around 10,000 kWh which includes heating, hot water and 2 EVs. I am hoping the A2A heatpumps will lower the need to boost the storage heaters especially outside of midwinter.

Blimey that's impressive.

Just a thought, and I feel bad mentioning it as you are so, so far ahead of me, but if ~365kWh of gas pa is doable, then have you thought about disconnecting?

I'm only making up numbers in my head, but let's say the standing charge is around £100pa, then the cost of that gas, before 'the actual cost of the gas' is about 30p/kWh, which I assume is your upper leccy import price? So a hot air blower would be similar in costs, and the A2A cheaper.

Is that doable, or do you need the GCH for emergencies for now, till you see how it all goes?

Disclaimer, I may have ocked up most of those figures and thoughts.

[openspaceman]

quote=Oldgreybeard post_id=14996 time=1659431062 user_id=155]
It's very irritating to get a day where the hot water, the house battery and the car are all charged up by lunchtime, the dishwasher and washing machine having been run and the rest of the generation is going mostly to the grid.

Absolutely!
[/quote]

Does anyone have access to a deep mine-shaft

[Oldgreybeard]

Mention of the standing charge raises the issue that much of it is now going to bail out the failed energy suppliers, apparently. My standing charge rose by around 18p/day in April and it is extremely irritating to think that this money is just going to line the pockets of the sharks that jumped on to the energy supplier bandwagon to make a quick buck. All the more so because many of those companies have now failed due mostly to poor management (i.e. not hedging for the future).

It also annoys me a great deal to see in the news today that BP have announced record profits, profits in ONE quarter that are enough to pay every man, woman and child in the UK £103 (EACH) : https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-62382624

British Gas (a.k.a. Centrica) and Shell similarly have announced record profits recently: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-62330190

There is something seriously wrong when an energy crisis, caused by a massive hike in wholesale prices, means that energy companies make obscene amounts of additional profit. That's unlike just about every other business. I was talking with our local village shop owner recently and he was really stressed about the increases he was paying for goods and the negative impact that was having on his profits, as he was reluctant to put up his prices. Seems that the fossil fuel companies have no qualms at all about using cost increases to hike their profits.

[Joeboy]

Mention of the standing charge raises the issue that much of it is now going to bail out the failed energy suppliers, apparently. My standing charge rose by around 18p/day in April and it is extremely irritating to think that this money is just going to line the pockets of the sharks that jumped on to the energy supplier bandwagon to make a quick buck. All the more so because many of those companies have now failed due mostly to poor management (i.e. not hedging for the future).

It also annoys me a great deal to see in the news today that BP have announced record profits, profits in ONE quarter that are enough to pay every man, woman and child in the UK £103 (EACH) : https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-62382624

British Gas (a.k.a. Centrica) and Shell similarly have announced record profits recently: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-62330190

There is something seriously wrong when an energy crisis, caused by a massive hike in wholesale prices, means that energy companies make obscene amounts of additional profit. That's unlike just about every other business. I was talking with our local village shop owner recently and he was really stressed about the increases he was paying for goods and the negative impact that was having on his profits, as he was reluctant to put up his prices. Seems that the fossil fuel companies have no qualms at all about using cost increases to hike their profits.

It's not as simple as that. 57.95p per ltr is govt fuel duty and 20% vat on top too. Nobody forces people to buy the fuels and they sure as hell can't go and get it themselves so they pay someone else to. O&G exploration is a costly, hazardous venture with no guarantee of a payday. Why should they not profit in their version.of good times? Walk, bike, extra jumpers, exercise. It's all available as options to curb fuel use. I seek no handouts or complain about my lot. Every adult has the power to exert change rather than sitting back crying and hoping for change like a child. I continue to take dividends from the O&G.market and reinvest them in green projects. That's my choice and I heard not a single voice raised to help us when those dividends went to zero in the last downturn and they stayed there...

The proles who won't do for themselves? Bollocks to the lot of them. Hey, just my view.