Interesting Winter Energy Supply Forecast

[nowty]

Nowty Towers will be keeping to its average of 1kWh per day of gas, so 365 kWh / year target. That's down from 28,000 kWh a decade ago.

Its day 214 for 2022 and the total so far is 229 kWh of gas. I'm a little behind, but I did a quick GCH burn for a short time in April when grid carbon Intensity was very high and I was shocked just how much the GCH eats in just heating up !, I burnt through 20 kWh in very little time before turning it off again.

Whilst its summer with plenty of solar, I've been using the induction hob to perform the initial heat up of things like boiled potatoes. That's shaving around 10kWh a month off my normal gas use, so I expect to make my 2022 gas target.

The second target is to see whether my new air to air heatpumps help to drop the overall cheap rate leccy imports. My annual leccy import is now around 10,000 kWh which includes heating, hot water and 2 EVs. I am hoping the A2A heatpumps will lower the need to boost the storage heaters especially outside of midwinter.

Blimey that's impressive.

Just a thought, and I feel bad mentioning it as you are so, so far ahead of me, but if ~365kWh of gas pa is doable, then have you thought about disconnecting?

I'm only making up numbers in my head, but let's say the standing charge is around £100pa, then the cost of that gas, before 'the actual cost of the gas' is about 30p/kWh, which I assume is your upper leccy import price? So a hot air blower would be similar in costs, and the A2A cheaper.

Is that doable, or do you need the GCH for emergencies for now, till you see how it all goes?

Disclaimer, I may have ocked up most of those figures and thoughts.

I could now completely ditch the gas BUT for now I am not going to.

My standing charge on Octopus Gas Tracker is currently only £55 per year and my max price of gas unit is 11p / kWh guaranteed until next March. It was as cheap as 2.52p / kWh as recent as 13th May 2022 but now its pretty much near the max at 10.99p / kWh every day. Even so my maximum gas bill for the year will still be sub £100 and as its Octopus it all gets paid out of my Virtual Battery balance which should be forever in credit with Ripple WT1, the government freebees, and sooner or later WT2 charging it up.

But there are other reasons for keeping the gas,

• I have my gas combi plumbed in parallel to the GSHP and the hot water goes through it so if we had an extended power cut I can still operate in deep winter with full heating and hot water on gas with my whole house leccy backup operating at low power in the background.

• Then there is the maintenance of the GSHP which in winter requires weekly pressure washing of the (underground "in river") heat exchanger and occasional water pump replacements. If I am away and leave SWMBO to hold the fort, the Nowty Towers operating manual is complicated.

• Then there is cooking, I have given an induction hob a good go, but I have to admit I still prefer cooking with gas. I use the induction hob in summer to heat things up on full power as its quicker. But on low power it cycles on or off and this causes inevitable grid leakage with import and export and sets my solar diverters on and off too. So the extra efficiency of them does not work here at Nowty Towers unless they are on full power.

[Oldgreybeard]

If I am away and leave SWMBO to hold the fort, the Nowty Towers operating manual is complicated.

This is something that has been exercising my mind for a few months now. I've gradually been going around the house replacing bits of home made kit with the nearest off-the-shelf substitute I can find, just so things like the heating and hot water can be fixed by someone that doesn't need to understand how my DIY stuff worked.

The DIY stuff was a very good way to find out what worked and what didn't, though, so it wasn't a wasted effort. I'm currently in the midst of trying to add controls for things to a Home Assistant system I've just been using for displaying house power and energy data until now, using off-the-shelf sensors that will eventually replace the plethora of home built sensors I have all over the place.

[Joeboy]

If I am away and leave SWMBO to hold the fort, the Nowty Towers operating manual is complicated.

This is something that has been exercising my mind for a few months now. I've gradually been going around the house replacing bits of home made kit with the nearest off-the-shelf substitute I can find, just so things like the heating and hot water can be fixed by someone that doesn't need to understand how my DIY stuff worked.

The DIY stuff was a very good way to find out what worked and what didn't, though, so it wasn't a wasted effort. I'm currently in the midst of trying to add controls for things to a Home Assistant system I've just been using for displaying house power and energy data until now, using off-the-shelf sensors that will eventually replace the plethora of home built sensors I have all over the place.

My SWMBO has asked for a manual for when i'm deid. That's ma girl!

[openspaceman]

If I am away and leave SWMBO to hold the fort, the Nowty Towers operating manual is complicated

Yes this is why everything has to be automated and easily serviced here, once I am gone my partner will do nothing to keep any RE systems running, even down to not lighting the stove, mind there's no way logs are economic to buy in either.

When I add more the electrician can fit an eddi type device.

[Mart]

Nowty Towers will be keeping to its average of 1kWh per day of gas, so 365 kWh / year target. That's down from 28,000 kWh a decade ago.

Its day 214 for 2022 and the total so far is 229 kWh of gas. I'm a little behind, but I did a quick GCH burn for a short time in April when grid carbon Intensity was very high and I was shocked just how much the GCH eats in just heating up !, I burnt through 20 kWh in very little time before turning it off again.

Whilst its summer with plenty of solar, I've been using the induction hob to perform the initial heat up of things like boiled potatoes. That's shaving around 10kWh a month off my normal gas use, so I expect to make my 2022 gas target.

The second target is to see whether my new air to air heatpumps help to drop the overall cheap rate leccy imports. My annual leccy import is now around 10,000 kWh which includes heating, hot water and 2 EVs. I am hoping the A2A heatpumps will lower the need to boost the storage heaters especially outside of midwinter.

Blimey that's impressive.

Just a thought, and I feel bad mentioning it as you are so, so far ahead of me, but if ~365kWh of gas pa is doable, then have you thought about disconnecting?

I'm only making up numbers in my head, but let's say the standing charge is around £100pa, then the cost of that gas, before 'the actual cost of the gas' is about 30p/kWh, which I assume is your upper leccy import price? So a hot air blower would be similar in costs, and the A2A cheaper.

Is that doable, or do you need the GCH for emergencies for now, till you see how it all goes?

Disclaimer, I may have ocked up most of those figures and thoughts.

I could now completely ditch the gas BUT for now I am not going to.

My standing charge on Octopus Gas Tracker is currently only £55 per year and my max price of gas unit is 11p / kWh guaranteed until next March. It was as cheap as 2.52p / kWh as recent as 13th May 2022 but now its pretty much near the max at 10.99p / kWh every day. Even so my maximum gas bill for the year will still be sub £100 and as its Octopus it all gets paid out of my Virtual Battery balance which should be forever in credit with Ripple WT1, the government freebees, and sooner or later WT2 charging it up.

But there are other reasons for keeping the gas,

• I have my gas combi plumbed in parallel to the GSHP and the hot water goes through it so if we had an extended power cut I can still operate in deep winter with full heating and hot water on gas with my whole house leccy backup operating at low power in the background.

• Then there is the maintenance of the GSHP which in winter requires weekly pressure washing of the (underground "in river") heat exchanger and occasional water pump replacements. If I am away and leave SWMBO to hold the fort, the Nowty Towers operating manual is complicated.

• Then there is cooking, I have given an induction hob a good go, but I have to admit I still prefer cooking with gas. I use the induction hob in summer to heat things up on full power as its quicker. But on low power it cycles on or off and this causes inevitable grid leakage with import and export and sets my solar diverters on and off too. So the extra efficiency of them does not work here at Nowty Towers unless they are on full power.

Cool, all makes sense.

But I can't shake the feeling you've probably considered yet more PV, and your own H2/methane production / storage .......?

[nowty]

Cool, all makes sense.

But I can't shake the feeling you've probably considered yet more PV, and your own H2/methane production / storage .......?

Maxed out on the PV, no where else for it to go and my SMA Sunny Manager system states a max of 12kW of panels on a single phase system so its probably a non starter. I could DC couple some, but I already do that in winter from my decking anyway.

Other than that I do have space for 3 more Pylontechs but I baulk at paying the current prices, my original ones were pricey enough when compared with my reused growatt ones.

[Joeboy]

Cool, all makes sense.

But I can't shake the feeling you've probably considered yet more PV, and your own H2/methane production / storage .......?

Maxed out on the PV, no where else for it to go and my SMA Sunny Manager system states a max of 12kW of panels on a single phase system so its probably a non starter. I could DC couple some, but I already do that in winter from my decking anyway.

Other than that I do have space for 3 more Pylontechs but I baulk at paying the current prices, my original ones were pricey enough when compared with my reused growatt ones.

Nowty, if the Tsunami that is current Pylontech prices ever abates I'd be game for two more to max out my stack. Potential for a bulk buy discount maybe?

[nowty]

Cool, all makes sense.

But I can't shake the feeling you've probably considered yet more PV, and your own H2/methane production / storage .......?

Maxed out on the PV, no where else for it to go and my SMA Sunny Manager system states a max of 12kW of panels on a single phase system so its probably a non starter. I could DC couple some, but I already do that in winter from my decking anyway.

Other than that I do have space for 3 more Pylontechs but I baulk at paying the current prices, my original ones were pricey enough when compared with my reused growatt ones.

Nowty, if the Tsunami that is current Pylontech prices ever abates I'd be game for two more to max out my stack. Potential for a bulk buy discount maybe?

I've actually got room for 4 more but am at the limit of 8, but if I buy 5 of the new US2000C variety, looks like I can replace the master with a C version and then add a further 4 C versions for slave battery number 9 to 12. My latest Sunny Island software update now allows Pylontech so I could re-install as lithium and not run in my bodged Lead Acid mode with the Pylontechs running stand alone. I will then be left with a surplus US2000 (non C) battery to sell on.

But its probably more cost effective for me to buy into the next Ripple project instead.

[Moxi]

When the price is right I am on for two more US3000C's, I suspect the battery store will have to grow periodically as the boys get older but at least they will be able to carry the batteries to their rack by then

Moxi

[nowty]

I've had a compromise, I've just bought these for £330, I've got an idea which I discounted a long time ago for various reasons but am re-visiting it. If it works out it may unlock another 5 or so kWh's out of my home battery bank.

But there is a chance it wont work at all, I'll update one of my other threads with it.