winter blackouts, news trickle out (just like covid)

[Mr Gus]

Should we even be using gas in 20 years time!?
Can we possibly get rid of the gas turbines to electricity?

20 year lock in sounds like a panicked last minute cake bake being thrown together by someone who doesnt make cakes.

its going to completely skew the cost of electricity surely?


Hooray.

[spread-tee]

Re Smog is lining up Quatar as a two decader as well, trouble is they have us by the short and curlies, we need energy for a couple of years? but they can call the shots if we really want any. Apart from which the climate agenda is well dead and gone now.

[ecogeorge]

Should we even be using gas in 20 years time!?
Can we possibly get rid of the gas turbines to electricity?
Hooray.

Now that's a good idea -run the turbines on electric
I'll get me coat..............
George

[Mr Gus]

No, get rid of gas turbines altogether, there was a recent topic discussing efficiency, (or lack of) I amwondering how far down the road we need to be to dispense with that sort of fuel to ratchet down on renewable targets, ie how much alt-tech displacement is / would be needed.

(isnt that the ultimate aim long term)?

[Swwils]

You probably can't get rid of the CCGT generation because we are already late on delivering new forms of dispensible generation.

As much as I like solar and wind the capacity factor is just not there to work for the grid without storage.and unfortunately physics trumps any willful ambitions.

[Mr Gus]

understood, i am of course including big battery storage in that, pre-packaged ready to go energy is a must (as it always was)

[Swwils]

Storage is a tricky scaling problem. The grid needs balancing minute by minute, this rules out pumped storage for frequency adjustments (pumped also takes ages to build out even if you got the space).

Chemical storage on the scale of the EU... Is very ambitious, even the EU commission target of 550 GW by 2050 required for grid decarbonisation assumes some very.... favourable.... Capacity factors.

I think an entire gigafactory output for the year is pegged at 300 GW of batteries storage equivalent. EU grid uses 3,000,000 GW a year...

Globally there is around 4000 MW of chemical storage.

Let's hope Norway keeps up the exports and other things improve.

[CrofterMannie]

Let's hope Norway keeps up the exports and other things improve.

Norwegian gas production 'might' be maintained but don't expect to see any increase over the next 2 years.

I work in Norway, on drilling rigs, and we are seeing a noticible drop in drilling activity. I know a number of people who have been laid off and more who are being furloughed.
The forecast is for it to be about 2 years before drilling picks up again.

[Ken]

We dont have a leccy production problem, we have a gas supply problem. As we use most of our gas for heating in winter then is this not where the pain is going to be felt. ie heating not electricity supply. So why all the talk of blackouts as against lack of CH ?

[Oldgreybeard]

We dont have a leccy production problem, we have a gas supply problem. As we use most of our gas for heating in winter then is this not where the pain is going to be felt. ie heating not electricity supply. So why all the talk of blackouts as against lack of CH ?

I think it's because it's near-impossible to turn off sections of the gas grid, because of the individual safety checks that need to be done (because of the possibility of air having got in) when they turn it back on.

Much easier to turn off gas fired power stations and keep the gas flowing in domestic supplies.