OFGEM Price Cap April to June Announcement 27th Feb

[nowty]

My stab at E7 rates come April.

So if the average per kWh is = 48.86p
See earlier message for previous calculation, https://camelot-forum.co.uk/phpBB3/view ... 818#p28792

Its up to each supplier to set the rates as long as the average consumer pays the average rate. As more folk shift more to cheap rate, that will inevitably increase the cheap rate and lower the peak rate to match the average. But as a starting point the OFGEM E7 split for the average person which is 58% peak, and 42% off peak.
https://www.ofgem.gov.uk/sites/default/ ... tter_0.pdf

Sanity check with the current Octopus E7 rate in my area.
46.91p / kWh Peak
16.05p / kWh Cheap

(0.58 x 46.91) + (0.42 x 16.05) = 33.95p which is not far off the Octopus flexible standard rate in my area of 34.23p.

So if the price of leccy for E7 increases to an average of 48.86p / kWh, you see where its going.

Cheap = (48.86 – (0.58 x Peak)) / 0.42

Say Peak goes up 10p to 57p, that would imply a cheap rate of 37.62p.
So more likely Peak goes up to 65p, that would imply a cheap rate of 26p.
If Peak goes up to 70p, that would imply a cheap rate of 19.66p.

Take your pick but that would suggest IO and GO cheap rate head upwards quite sharply, if only for 3 months.

DISCLAIMER - This is based on the Cornwall Insights latest press release and I am personally surprised of the large hike in leccy. Hoping they have got it wrong, but as its now based on historical numbers, it going to be pretty close.
https://www.cornwall-insight.com/our-fi ... price-cap/

[Yuff]

My stab at E7 rates come April.

So if the average per kWh is = 48.86p
See earlier message for previous calculation, https://camelot-forum.co.uk/phpBB3/view ... 818#p28792

Its up to each supplier to set the rates as long as the average consumer pays the average rate. As more folk shift more to cheap rate, that will inevitably increase the cheap rate and lower the peak rate to match the average. But as a starting point the OFGEM E7 split for the average person which is 58% peak, and 42% off peak.
https://www.ofgem.gov.uk/sites/default/ ... tter_0.pdf

Sanity check with the current Octopus E7 rate in my area.
46.91p / kWh Peak
16.05p / kWh Cheap

(0.58 x 46.91) + (0.42 x 16.05) = 33.95p which is not far off the Octopus flexible standard rate in my area of 34.23p.

So if the price of leccy for E7 increases to an average of 48.86p / kWh, you see where its going.

Cheap = (48.86 – (0.58 x Peak)) / 0.42

Say Peak goes up 10p to 57p, that would imply a cheap rate of 37.62p.
So more likely Peak goes up to 65p, that would imply a cheap rate of 26p.
If Peak goes up to 70p, that would imply a cheap rate of 19.66p.

Take your pick but that would suggest IO and GO cheap rate head upwards quite sharply, if only for 3 months.

DISCLAIMER - This is based on the Cornwall Insights latest press release and I am personally surprised of the large hike in leccy. Hoping they have got it wrong, but as its now based on historical numbers, it going to be pretty close.
https://www.cornwall-insight.com/our-fi ... price-cap/

It’s looking like they have taken on the mantra of petrol stations
When prices go up they rocket up, when they drop they fall like a feather.
Luckily most posters have solar so that should help cover any steep increases as long as they are short lived

[Swwils]

Short lived

[nowty]

It’s looking like they have taken on the mantra of petrol stations
When prices go up they rocket up, when they drop they fall like a feather.
Luckily most posters have solar so that should help cover any steep increases as long as they are short lived

In terms of the OFGEM price cap, yes I agree, but its exacerbated by the fact that there is effectively a lot of gearing on the E7 cheap rate tariff. Previously GO and IO were fixed products and not aligned to E7 but as they are now variable rates subject to the government guarantee prices in a similar way to E7 , they effectively now are.

[Yuff]

It’s looking like they have taken on the mantra of petrol stations
When prices go up they rocket up, when they drop they fall like a feather.
Luckily most posters have solar so that should help cover any steep increases as long as they are short lived

In terms of the OFGEM price cap, yes I agree, but its exacerbated by the fact that there is effectively a lot of gearing on the E7 cheap rate tariff. Previously GO and IO were fixed products and not aligned to E7 but as they are now variable rates subject to the government guarantee prices in a similar way to E7 , they effectively now are.

I think they will struggle to sell an EV tariff, as such, when their flexible rate, 24/7, is averaging circa 22p /kWh.
One would have thought

[John_S]

Previously GO and IO were fixed products and not aligned to E7 but as they are now variable rates subject to the government guarantee prices in a similar way to E7 , they effectively now are.

I thought that GO was a fixed price tariff. Mine appears to fix annually each October. Increased when it rolled over last October and on my bill it states that it is fixed to Oct 2023. It did not change in January, although my gas did.

Does Octopus do any gas tariffs other than standard variable rate? If they do, I cannot find them.

I am still waiting for Octopus to approve Wallbox Pulsar Plus chargers with VW ID4s so I can consider changing to IO. Bit frustrated as it was on the list of approved chargers when I got Octopus to install it.

[nowty]

Previously GO and IO were fixed products and not aligned to E7 but as they are now variable rates subject to the government guarantee prices in a similar way to E7 , they effectively now are.

I thought that GO was a fixed price tariff. Mine appears to fix annually each October. Increased when it rolled over last October and on my bill it states that it is fixed to Oct 2023. It did not change in January, although my gas did.

Does Octopus do any gas tariffs other than standard variable rate? If they do, I cannot find them.

I am still waiting for Octopus to approve Wallbox Pulsar Plus chargers with VW ID4s so I can consider changing to IO. Bit frustrated as it was on the list of approved chargers when I got Octopus to install it.

If your still on a fixed deal then it still is, but many have either rolled over to the variable rate version or are about to. My IO tariff rolls over to the variable version next month.

If you moved onto the tariff (or rolled over) from around November last year your on the variable version.

The reason is that Octopus had to change it to get the government price guarantee because the price guarantee does not apply to fixed rates after the guarantee came in.

Fixed rates may come back once the price guarantee is removed.

[spread-tee]

Why are they still linking electric prices to the gas price?
Surely all renewable cheap production should be subsidising electric use not gas use…….FFS

Basically a scam :-



Still it's made a few people an awful lot of money so that is OK!

Desp

[nowty]

OFGEM has made the announcement of the Apr to Jun price cap today at £3,280 which is not far off the recent forecast from Cornwall Insight at £3,295. The important thing is that it will be higher than the increased government price guarantee which is rising from £2,500 to £3,000.

If you have not followed this, as there is a difference between the OFGEM price cap and the government price guarantee, it might be worth reading back from the start of the thread.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-64748135

[smegal]

OFGEM has made the announcement of the Apr to Jun price cap today at £3,280 which is not far off the recent forecast from Cornwall Insight at £3,295. The important thing is that it will be higher than the increased government price guarantee which is rising from £2,500 to £3,000.

If you have not followed this, as there is a difference between the OFGEM price cap and the government price guarantee, it might be worth reading back from the start of the thread.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-64748135

Thank you for explaining it like this. I saw an article earlier and couldn't follow the two figures in the way that the article set them out.