Mark P. Mills on renewable energy.

[bxman]

Are we heading toward an all-renewable energy future, spearheaded by wind and solar? Or are those energy sources wholly inadequate for the task? Mark Mills, Senior Fellow at the Manhattan Institute and author of The Cloud Revolution, compares the energy dream to the energy reality.


Mark Mills on The Energy Transition Delusion
2 hour & 8 min
If it is to long
best to just listen to the Q&A which start @ !h 01m

or simply the Question from 1H 17m to 1h 27m on metals mining .

[Mart]

Not sure if I'm missing something?

I watched the 10min bit, with him talking about the rising demand for copper, aluminium and nickel, pushing the prices up considerably, but on checking the market rates, I'm not seeing the high levels he describes.

[Edit- I'll add links to where I found the prices, as it may be that I've confused things / looking at the wrong commodity, and hence why I can't see what he's saying. M]

For copper the price is about $4/lb, as it was in 2012. Between those dates, it has been as low as $2, but also reached $5 between April 2021 and April 2022.

For aluminium, there's more of an increase, but in 1998 it was $1,400/tonne, and now it's about $2,140/tonne. In between those dates it has reached ~$3,500 a year ago, and ~$3,000 in 2008.

For nickel the high price spike was in 2007 at $50k/tonne. But for the last 15yrs, the price has varied between $10k and $30k and is currently about $20k.

So none of those seem to jump out at me as a problem, since they're not exceptional today, despite us being well into the RE and BEV transition.

He also mentions lithium, and those prices (lithium carbonate) have spiked massively, up from 50kYaunn/tonne to about 300k, but down from their 600k high a year ago, and up from their recent low of 165k in Apr this year. Also we now have sodium-ion batts for stationary storage, and in at least one Chinese BEV. Also, China has apparently been trying to reduce production of lithium and batteries, as there is now an oversupply issue, reducing prices and profits. I'm pretty sure I heard/read that planned Chinese battery production facilities are growing faster than anticipated demand.


Not knocking concerns about the need to expand mining of the materials that we will now need more of, it's just that the prices, or perhaps more importantly, the price trend, doesn't seem to support his conclusions that we simply can't produce enough, soon enough.

[nowty]

First there is an online resource which debunks most of what he says and probably does a better job than me.
https://arstechnica.com/science/2021/03 ... enewables/


I did watched some of it last night and its the usual half truths to make themselves sound plausible, then state actual facts but make false arguments.

His general view is along the lines of, climate change is happening anyway so might as well get used to it. Ignores, that sticking with FF will accelerate it. Its all too big, too difficult, too complicated so lets stay with FF. He prefers to spend "capital" on adaptation and keeping the status quo.

A couple of examples I noted in addition to Mart's comments,

He compares energy density of FF to batteries by weight so FF is obviously better. But he fails to understand the inherent inefficiency of an ICE engine or that a BEV is perfectly adequate in range now for most people. Also he ignores the FF emissions of ICE or simply shrugs it off in that BEVs are worse overall.

He says efficiency of wind turbines cannot get much better, but fails to understand that the current efficiency of them is currently more than enough and they are still getting larger with their economies of scale. Similar issue with solar PV.

He makes an argument misquoting something from Bill Gates, that if we make net zero by 2050 it will make little difference, then changes that to no difference at all. Then makes the argument that there is no point making things more efficient as you will just use more.

He seems to be OK with geothermal and nuclear.

[Mart]

He says efficiency of wind turbines cannot get much better, but fails to understand that the current efficiency of them is currently more than enough and they are still getting larger with their economies of scale. Similar issue with solar PV.

Hiya Nowty. Funny you should say that, as I was looking at a news item today for onshore wind, that suggests a cf of 46%.

It may be that there's a mistake in the claimed upto 1.8TWh pa, or in my maths, but I did wonder if the location (Shetland), and the very large size WT's for UK onshore wind of 4.3MW, may be the reason.

Final turbine installed at Viking Wind Farm

Just over three years since breaking ground on the project, SSE Renewables has successfully installed the final turbine at the 443MW Viking Wind Farm in Shetland.

The process began in February 2023 and in just over six months the team of technicians has safely and successfully installed all 103 Vestas V117 4.3MW machines on the site.

Over the last month, the project has progressed rapidly. The final unit went up well ahead of schedule, as the original programme had been due to complete in autumn 2023.
The project remains on track for completion in 2024, with commissioning works set to continue over the next year.

When fully operational, Viking’s turbines will operate in 4.3MW power mode and comprise 443MW of capacity, capable of generating up to 1.8TWh of renewable electricity annually – enough to power almost half a million typical British homes, including every home in Shetland.

[smegal]

He says efficiency of wind turbines cannot get much better, but fails to understand that the current efficiency of them is currently more than enough and they are still getting larger with their economies of scale. Similar issue with solar PV.

Hiya Nowty. Funny you should say that, as I was looking at a news item today for onshore wind, that suggests a cf of 46%.

It may be that there's a mistake in the claimed upto 1.8TWh pa, or in my maths, but I did wonder if the location (Shetland), and the very large size WT's for UK onshore wind of 4.3MW, may be the reason.

Final turbine installed at Viking Wind Farm

Just over three years since breaking ground on the project, SSE Renewables has successfully installed the final turbine at the 443MW Viking Wind Farm in Shetland.

The process began in February 2023 and in just over six months the team of technicians has safely and successfully installed all 103 Vestas V117 4.3MW machines on the site.

Over the last month, the project has progressed rapidly. The final unit went up well ahead of schedule, as the original programme had been due to complete in autumn 2023.
The project remains on track for completion in 2024, with commissioning works set to continue over the next year.

When fully operational, Viking’s turbines will operate in 4.3MW power mode and comprise 443MW of capacity, capable of generating up to 1.8TWh of renewable electricity annually – enough to power almost half a million typical British homes, including every home in Shetland.

CF is a measure of effectiveness, not efficiency.

Efficiency is how much of the wind's energy is turned into electricity, which matters less in renewables as the fuel is free, so the only loss is wasted size.

[Mart]

Thanks Smegal, you are absolutely right.

But I was thinking about Nowty's mention of them getting larger, and wondering if that might be part of the reason for such a high cf (if it's correct)? I've noticed folk from the US and Aus talking (in comments) about higher onshore wind cf's, than I'm used to, perhaps 35%+. But I suspect that's because flatter (and windy) lands allow for larger WT's, whereas UK roads and hills, often limit them to around 2.5MW due to access problems. But some UK coastal onshore WT's (dock side) have been 4MW+.

All great news, and sorry for confusing the issue.

[Joeboy]

I worked up there a few Winters and I'd say the bigger and more capable of increased rpm the better. It can be brutal. They wouldn't be sitting idle much at all.

[Ken]

The existing turbines on Shetland hold a world record.

"They were commissioned on 17th December 2000. Since then, the turbines have had an average capacity factor of 52%, and in 2005 averaged an amazing world record, 57.9%. The first three turbines constructed were all given women's names – Mina, Betsy and Brenda."

[Fintray]

I've been in Shetland many times and it is not known for trees, any that exist are mostly stunted and bent by the prevailing winds.