CfD AR6 - huge

[dan_b]

Mart we need your insight here!

https://renews.biz/91444/uk-could-set-offshore-record/

"14 wind farms are already eligible to bid into this year’s AR6 process, providing nearly 10.3GW of new capacity."

[Moxi]

Hopefully, with the ongoing delays and budget overruns at Hinkley and other energy/ environmental commitments and pressures, the mandarins and government will be suitably focussed to take advantage and make the UK more resilient in power generation.

It would be fabulous to see us become a net exporter of power to Europe in the years ahead as well as having a much cheaper and stable energy base to allow us to regrow our manufacturing base and increase export potential.

Fingers crossed this comes to fruition.

Moxi

[Mart]

Mart we need your insight here!

https://renews.biz/91444/uk-could-set-offshore-record/

"14 wind farms are already eligible to bid into this year’s AR6 process, providing nearly 10.3GW of new capacity."

Hi Dan, that sounds like good news. I was hopefull that after the R5 cock up, that R6 would try to catch up, effectively trying to allow an amount equal to R5 + R6, but I've no idea if that's how things work.

I've been searching today, but can't find info on the pot size for off-shore wind, so the amount approved will depend on beating the strike price max, which should be easy(?) at the super new high £73/MWh. But then we need to see the approved price, since the lower the price, the more capacity that can be approved as the pot will stretch further. But I think there is typically a max capacity too for each auction.

For anyone wondering about the mechanics, the scheme looks at the approved bids, and after reviewing them (in case they aren't serious/viable) it approves from the cheapest bid up, till the max capacity, or pot budget is reached. Then all of the approved schemes actually get the bid price of the highest priced succesful scheme.

[Way, way back in R2 when PV was first allowed to bid, there were two PV pots (with different start years). One company thought they were clever, and bid really low (about £50 back then), in order to win, but expecting a higher price based on other bids. But nobody else bid in that pot, they bid in the other. So they 'won' at £50, but had to withdraw, as they couldn't afford to build it at that price. And the penalties for gaming the system back then were trivial, it simply meant that that company couldn't submit the very same scheme again, for 2 or 3 years. Not sure what the rules are now.]

[Moxi]

Seems they settled the 27/28 capacity auction at the lower end of the scale.

https://www.msn.com/en-gb/money/other/u ... 786&ei=103

Moxi

[Moxi]

Another report with a bit of a break down on awards

https://www.msn.com/en-gb/money/other/u ... 9079&ei=28

Moxi
(cold, tired, snuffly)

[dan_b]

New interconnectors? Ooh

[Moxi]

and for completeness one of the growing doom articles about lack of generation capacity by 2028 which could be seen to have influenced price agreements noted in the previous articles.

https://www.msn.com/en-gb/travel/news/u ... 9079&ei=97

Moxi

[Mart]

Hope I'm not kicking HPC whilst it's down, but the article said that generation was hoped by 2027, now 2030. But isn't that 2027 date itself a revised one? I'm sure there were hopes/plans for one reactor (1.6GW) in 2025/26 and final commissioning with the second reactor in 2027/28.

Moxi (or anyone), are the capacity auction prices good? I've no idea, also interested how they are trending.


Back to the CfD and general rollout of RE in the UK - my figures, not officiall, but I think we need to approve/add the equivalent of about 2GW of additional generation each year, or around +6% through to 2050, to get us to net zero leccy, and on to net zero(ish) energy as we 'electrify everything'.

So, for example, that would mean approving about 4GW of off-shore wind each year, at a capacity factor of 50%. But of course it will actually be a package of RE, but almost certainly off-shore wind heavy in the case of the UK specialism.

+2GW is not actually that hard, just needs consistent effort, and other than the huge inflationary 'blip' as a result of European gas prices (which is now slowly being resolved), the general trend for RE and battery prices is still downward.

[nowty]

Moxi (or anyone), are the capacity auction prices good? I've no idea, also interested how they are trending.

The £65 / MWh or 6.5p / kWh strike price is almost identical to the current leccy year ahead price.
https://zenergi.co.uk/market-watch/

[Moxi]

https://www.msn.com/en-gb/money/news/uk ... 7f1e&ei=62

more detail and a bit of an indication about some battery storage and a hint of a marginal undershot of required generation for the period 27/28.

A good indication that the UK Government needs to wake up and be proactive or we will all be in the soup!

Moxi