Will the chancellor increase road fuel duty by 7.5p/L?

[Stinsy]

I'm not sure anyone really change their mind on buying a £110k Range Rover because the first year VED has gone from £2.75k to £5.5k. And I don't imagine it will raise much money either.

I mainly agree with you, but looking for the good news (as I tend to try) I'll play Devil's Advocate, and do something I was told a decade or so back - 'test it to the extreme'.

So, if for example the VED was increased to £1m, then it would end all (almost? all) sales. So there has to be a point where increases affect sales. The nudge effect, would suggest every £1 has an impact, until the point it changes the mind of one person, then more £'s till the next mind is changed.

Hopefully, all such increases will impact people's decision, and drive a few to look at other options (smaller cars, BEV's etc). I hope (well we can all hope) that some potential buyers of the Range Rover may just Google BEV's, and be pleasantly surprised by some offerings like the Kia EV9 just as an example.

That's my rose tinted glasses attempt for the day.

Your logic is sound.

We can both agree that a V8 Range Rover having 1st year VED £1 more expensive than an EV would make zero difference. We also both agree that 1st year VED being £1,000,000 more expensive would end (almost?) all such vehicle sales. I propose that the £5k difference makes almost-zero difference. Particularly when these vehicles are already well into 6-figures.

There was a time when “environmentally friendly” cars were uninspiring to drive. However these days PHEVs and BEVs are very dynamic indeed. I get that there is a shortage of full-size estate cars and 7-seat SUVs are thin on the ground too. But they do exist and choice will improve over time.

[Mart]

I'm not sure anyone really change their mind on buying a £110k Range Rover because the first year VED has gone from £2.75k to £5.5k. And I don't imagine it will raise much money either.

I mainly agree with you, but looking for the good news (as I tend to try) I'll play Devil's Advocate, and do something I was told a decade or so back - 'test it to the extreme'.

So, if for example the VED was increased to £1m, then it would end all (almost? all) sales. So there has to be a point where increases affect sales. The nudge effect, would suggest every £1 has an impact, until the point it changes the mind of one person, then more £'s till the next mind is changed.

Hopefully, all such increases will impact people's decision, and drive a few to look at other options (smaller cars, BEV's etc). I hope (well we can all hope) that some potential buyers of the Range Rover may just Google BEV's, and be pleasantly surprised by some offerings like the Kia EV9 just as an example.

That's my rose tinted glasses attempt for the day.

Your logic is sound.

We can both agree that a V8 Range Rover having 1st year VED £1 more expensive than an EV would make zero difference. We also both agree that 1st year VED being £1,000,000 more expensive would end (almost?) all such vehicle sales. I propose that the £5k difference makes almost-zero difference. Particularly when these vehicles are already well into 6-figures.

There was a time when “environmentally friendly” cars were uninspiring to drive. However these days PHEVs and BEVs are very dynamic indeed. I get that there is a shortage of full-size estate cars and 7-seat SUVs are thin on the ground too. But they do exist and choice will improve over time.

Yeah, bums on seats for BEV's is the best way to sell them. Uninspiring just doesn't describe their lovely torque delivery.

Just pondering that your 'thin on the ground' point might be really important. And as BEV's start to approach significant %ages of sales, maybe 33% or 50%, then the Gov may get braver in starting to price the worst off the road.

I suppose choice, market direction, and charging options (for those that can't charge at home, or use rapid chargers a lot) may allow for a brave Gov to roll out more punitive ICE measures. Or, they can simply hope that the rapidly increasing ZEV (zero emission vehicle) mandate will do the work for them. It's 22% this year, 28% next year and rises through to 80% for 2030. But there is some wiggle room.