Part ownership of a Ripple Wind Turbine, fancy it?

[Joeboy]

12.00 to 13.00 0.69kwh predicted, actually take? 1.43kWh at 13.01hrs.

Edit, then displaying 1.64kWh at 13.30hrs. Live adjustments!

0.83kWh predicted for this 13.00 to 14.00hrs slot. Quite enjoying this as it's going 'our' way rather than against us.

Edit- actually at 14.01 was 1.42kWh.

It is proving very reliable (performance not prediction) since the sensor change out, just need to see it perform in a big blow.

22nd predicted to be 10.49kWh.
23rd predicted to be 15.32 kWh.
They look like stronger days than that going on the forecast I use. Fingers .

Have to agree there Joe, returned figures are looking much closer to estimates lately.
I don't know if it was just a coincidence but the forecast for 20th with minimal winds was 2.75kWh's with the actual being 2.56!

AE, was that 2.56kWh figure your final adjusted figure? I ask as my 20th figure has risen since this morning, just a touch but hoping you maybe have a squeak more to collect?

[Joeboy]

As of two hours ago (05.00hrs on the 22nd Oct) we are in new monthly generation territory. PBtastic!

That is the unadjusted figure and could come forward in time as the take rises, close enough though.

[Joeboy]

Friday 28th Oct around 7am is my next window to watch for behaviour.

https://xcweather.co.uk/forecast/cardiff_airport

[nowty]

I did a quick calculation last night and the Oct rolling average capacity factor had dropped from 34% on the 15th to 33% on the 21st.

The average for Oct should be about 32%.

The forecast from now till the end of the month looks quite variable, up and down but I'm sure it will end the month very close to baseline as long as we have no further outages.

[Joeboy]

I did a quick calculation last night and the Oct rolling average capacity factor had dropped from 34% on the 15th to 33% on the 21st.

The average for Oct should be about 32%.

The forecast from now till the end of the month looks quite variable, up and down but I'm sure it will end the month very close to baseline as long as we have no further outages.

That's strange, I have it at 36.3% up to midnight last night?

[nowty]

I did a quick calculation last night and the Oct rolling average capacity factor had dropped from 34% on the 15th to 33% on the 21st.

The average for Oct should be about 32%.

The forecast from now till the end of the month looks quite variable, up and down but I'm sure it will end the month very close to baseline as long as we have no further outages.

That's strange, I have it at 36.3% up to midnight last night?

You correct joeboy, my calc last night was a bit leisurely , so its got even better assuming I did the last calc correct.

I might even end up with 800 kWh for the month.

[Joeboy]

I did a quick calculation last night and the Oct rolling average capacity factor had dropped from 34% on the 15th to 33% on the 21st.

The average for Oct should be about 32%.

The forecast from now till the end of the month looks quite variable, up and down but I'm sure it will end the month very close to baseline as long as we have no further outages.

That's strange, I have it at 36.3% up to midnight last night?

You correct joeboy, my calc last night was a bit leisurely , so its got even better assuming I did the last calc correct.

I might even end up with 800 kWh for the month.

No worries Nowty, I have had the time out here to watch it and log it. A part of my morning T routine. I also noticed that the hourly take figures also adjust at about the 1/2 hour mark in the following hour? As you say, next few days are average so will likely pull the average closer to the predicted mean. Its good to see smooth predictable running in decent wind speeds

[nowty]

It is proving very reliable (performance not prediction) since the sensor change out, just need to see it perform in a big blow.

22nd predicted to be 10.49kWh.
23rd predicted to be 15.32 kWh.
They look like stronger days than that going on the forecast I use. Fingers .

Have to agree there Joe, returned figures are looking much closer to estimates lately.
I don't know if it was just a coincidence but the forecast for 20th with minimal winds was 2.75kWh's with the actual being 2.56!

I'm confident that the dodgy blade pitch sensor was clouding it? Hope so anyway!

I'm inclined to agree as I recall several times a few months back when I looked at the live windspeed (not the Ripple prediction) and thought, that's going to be 50% to 75%. And the actuals turned out to be about 25% and I thought what ?

[Joeboy]

Have to agree there Joe, returned figures are looking much closer to estimates lately.
I don't know if it was just a coincidence but the forecast for 20th with minimal winds was 2.75kWh's with the actual being 2.56!

I'm confident that the dodgy blade pitch sensor was clouding it? Hope so anyway!

I'm inclined to agree as I recall several times a few months back when I looked at the live windspeed (not the Ripple prediction) and thought, that's going to be 50% to 75%. And the actuals turned out to be about 25% and I thought what ?

I said this a wee bit back, intermittent faults can be a pig to identify. A wee bit of moisture at the wrong spot and it's all over the place (sensors in general). My next up is to see a consistent strong blow and the turbine to be bouncing off its own limiter, self limiting but no curtailment. After that it'll be looking great and Ripple will have taken a large project and worked through its teething issues in 6 months, no mean feat.

Got some Shell dividends (boo hiss) in Dec earmarked for Project 3.

[Joeboy]

I did a quick calculation last night and the Oct rolling average capacity factor had dropped from 34% on the 15th to 33% on the 21st.

The average for Oct should be about 32%.

The forecast from now till the end of the month looks quite variable, up and down but I'm sure it will end the month very close to baseline as long as we have no further outages.

That's strange, I have it at 36.3% up to midnight last night?

You correct joeboy, my calc last night was a bit leisurely , so its got even better assuming I did the last calc correct.

I might even end up with 800 kWh for the month.

Grasping at straws now here Nowty. Yesterday's average take(14.31kWh, average yet magnificent) down at WT1 needed to be supported by the 3.92kWh of PV FIT generation to balance out the power used at home. Managed an 8p profit too! I NEVER expected to be self supporting at home this late in the year at our latitude. That's with No1 son running the washing machine too.