Cornwall Insight latest predictions

[Moxi]

https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/uknews/e ... 7fdd&ei=83

Looks like the downward trend in prices that were predicted is starting to take effect, its not massive but definitely most welcome for many struggling UK bill payers.

Moxi

[dan_b]

Is that driven by a fall in the cost /kWh, or is there also going to be a fall in the standing charge? It's at the point where you can't really lower your bill much further by reducing/modifying consumption and the standing charge then becomes a disproportionately large portion of the overall cost.

[nowty]

For reference, the OFGEM price cap has been,

Jan 2019 - £1,137 .....(based on the medium user rate of 2,900 kWh for electricity 12,000 kWh for gas)
Aug 2019 - £1,179
Feb 2020 - £1,042
Feb 2021 - £1,138
Aug 2021 - £1,277
Apr 2022 - £1,971
Oct 2022 - £3,549 .....(but limited to £2,500 by government subsidy) + (we also got £67 a month extra credit on our energy accounts)
Jan 2023 - £4,279 .....(but limited to £2,500 by government subsidy) + (we also got £67 a month extra credit on our energy accounts)
Apr 2023 - £3,280 .....(but limited to £3,000 by government subsidy)
Jul 2023 - £2,074
Oct 2023 - £1,834 .....(now based on the lower consumption rate of 2,700 kWh for electricity 11,500 kWh for gas)
Jan 2024 - £1,928
Apr 2024 - £1,635 .....(firm forecast) ..... EDIT - Actual price cap came in at £1,690
Jul 2024 - £1,497 .....(forecast)
Oct 2024 - £1,541 .....(forecast)

[Moxi]

Is that driven by a fall in the cost /kWh, or is there also going to be a fall in the standing charge? It's at the point where you can't really lower your bill much further by reducing/modifying consumption and the standing charge then becomes a disproportionately large portion of the overall cost.

The standing charge is all about updates to the grid, meter reading, support to those on hard times, environmental energy infrastructure development and of course propping up the companies that were given customers from failed businesses during the "big" market collapse.

I would state the last item should be bourn by the Government as they presided over the free market and failed to adequately regulate - but even if that was done they would still need to raise that funding from "us" so you could say we voted for that cost increase some time in the dim and distant past and so the cost is with the right people - I didn't vote for the mob that started it but all colours of government at some point in time presided over the market and didn't step in to "improve matters" so to my mind that means I own part of the steaming mess. I apologise to you all now, I am VEry SORRY

I think the most contentious element is the regional variations in SC and the fact that the suppliers can hedge the SC for new customers or customers on a specific tariff and offset that cost to another set of customers, wouldn't it be far more equitable and transparent for the SC to be the same across the UK ?

As for the falling energy costs the article does state that gas imports remain at risk from influence by malicious and hostile global entities and therefore the ability to project prices long term still hold a degree of risk. That reliance on imports would suggest we need a domestic alternative and maybe this was what the government were thinking when they announced new gas and oil exploration for UK shores ? Maybe (hopefully) in the background the National Grid is fast tracking strategic projects that strengthen our ability to use home produced and more secure energy sources.

I cant see world politics being more stable for the foreseeable so I reckon the higher SC is going to be with us for quite some time.

Moxi

[nowty]

Is that driven by a fall in the cost /kWh, or is there also going to be a fall in the standing charge? It's at the point where you can't really lower your bill much further by reducing/modifying consumption and the standing charge then becomes a disproportionately large portion of the overall cost.

Practically all by a fall in the cost of kWh, the standing charge has been the same or slightly increased. There is and have been a number of consultations about standing charges as to whether it will increase further or be passed on to unit rates. No outcome yet as politically difficult, nobody wants to make a decision.

Wholesale prices still falling, the graph starts Nov 22 to today, prices are £ / MWh so divide by 10 to give pence per kWh.
https://zenergi.co.uk/market-watch/

Note, you can see the small uptick in Oct 23 when the Gaza / Israel war started and that fed though to a small increase in the Jan energy costs, cos its a moving average of the year ahead price. And now its falling away again heading towards 5p / kWh, in fact day ahead leccy prices are already around that level. Year ahead gas is now about 2.4p / kWh and next day gas is about 2p / kWh.

[Moxi]

https://www.msn.com/en-gb/money/other/s ... 9039&ei=49

Seems to dove tail nicely in to this topic, I wonder if they read our forum?

Moxi

[AE-NMidlands]

The adjustment is one of several introduced alongside today’s overall cut in prices, which masks some new levies introduced by Ofgem.

One additional charge, costing a nominal £28 a year, will go to suppliers to cover unpaid debts by customers and will be added to the bills of direct debit payers. Another charge of £11 a year will be abolished, so the net cost to householders will be £17.

Prepayment meter customers will not have to pay the extra charge as they do not build up debts, Ofgem said.

Another levy will support prepayments customers, who will also no longer face higher standing charges – typically around £21 a year. The cost will instead be spread across direct debit billpayers, costing them another £10 a year.

The overall effect of the levies, said Ofgem, is that prepayment customers will save around £49 per year while direct debit customers will pay £10 more each year.

Thanks for nothing!

[Moxi]

As the good book says - paraphrasing the next bit - "they giveth with the one hand whilst takething much much more from the other hand behind your back"

or something like that

The way I read that we would all be better moving to prepayment now that there's no standing charge and they have to offer competitive tariffs? I presume the snake oil merchants have the next manoeuvre to address such ideas and ensure the status quo is maintained - that being they get to fleece us.

Moxi

[dan_b]

I did spot that bit about prepay accounts now potentially being the cheapest way to get electricity - I'm not sure how long that will be the case!

[Moxi]

I did spot that bit about prepay accounts now potentially being the cheapest way to get electricity - I'm not sure how long that will be the case!

Yes and when it changes would they allow you to move away from a prepay meter ?

Moxi