High loss of load probability forecast

[Swwils]

07/03/23 18:00 LOLP forecast

56.2855500%

Expected GB generation is currently less than demand by -115.9MW (negative derated margin)

I guess they will stick on West Burton 1 coal and Drax 5 & 6.

[sharpener]

I see they are currently exporting 2.3GW to France and Ireland, wouldn't they want to reduce these first?

[Countrypaul]

I see they are currently exporting 2.3GW to France and Ireland, wouldn't they want to reduce these first?

I would guess that if they can earn more by generating and exporting then that is what they will do.

[Countrypaul]

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-64879044

[Swwils]

I see they are currently exporting 2.3GW to France and Ireland, wouldn't they want to reduce these first?

It doesn't quite work like that, just because it's a grid doesn't mean twh transmission is free.

[Swwils]

Outturn imbalance prices hit £1950/MWh over the evening peak.

3.61 GW of wind. 22.67 GW gas. 1.74 GW coal.

Hopefully this illustrates that wind power is not the same value as power from a fuel, just like random Ubers isn't the same usefulness as regular Uber.

[sharpener]

Biggest constituent is transfers to/from France, it went from -4 to +2.5 GW during the course of the day, completely dwarfs the contribution from coal useful though that is. I am surprised given the state of their nukes they can spare it.

[Swwils]

Also true.

EU grid not really at its best!