Part ownership of a Ripple Wind Turbine, fancy it?

[nowty]

Kirkhill buy in extended to midnight on 3rdMay 22

So not mid April then and the embarrassing % bar has gone.
Doubt it will be the last extension.

On the positive side, the cold front and the subsequent rapid increase in wind will hit WT1 mid evening and go from zero to probably about half power going by the history.

I need some import tonight, the cold is hitting the south coast tomorrow so need the storage heater boost tonight.

As its such an abrupt wind change this evening, I will publish the hourly actuals so the non members can see what their missing.

[Joeboy]

Kirkhill buy in extended to midnight on 3rdMay 22

On the positive side, the cold front and the subsequent rapid increase in wind will hit WT1 mid evening and go from zero to probably about half power going by the history.

[AE-NMidlands]

Here's mine:

[Joeboy]

Here's mine:

Same thing here, If its true it'll fairly lift a tile or two in the village.

[nowty]

Based on history its very unlikely to do that crazy increase from near zero to 100% at 8pm, but it should be sizable, wind was strong strong around East Anglia a couple of hours back, now its getting into the Midlands. I'll re-calibrate the output based on the whole wind turbine as a percentage of full power using the actual generation (rounded to nearest %). Remember you have to wait till the following hour to get the actual historic value so come back at 9pm to hopefully see the first big increase for 8pm.

So here is the history so far from 1pm today of the whole turbine with 100% being max power at 2,500 kW or 2.5MW.

1pm - 0 %
2pm - 2 %
3pm - 5 %
4pm - 3 %
5pm - 7 %
6pm - 12 %

[Joeboy]

Based on history its very unlikely to do that crazy increase from near zero to 100% at 8pm, but it should be sizable, wind was strong strong around East Anglia a couple of hours back, now its getting into the Midlands. I'll re-calibrate the output based on the whole wind turbine as a percentage of full power using the actual generation (rounded to nearest %). Remember you have to wait till the following hour to get the actual historic value so come back at 9pm to hopefully see the first big increase for 8pm.

So here is the history so far from 1pm today of the whole turbine with 100% being max power at 2,500 kW or 2.5MW.

1pm - 0 %
2pm - 2 %
3pm - 5 %
4pm - 3 %
5pm - 7 %
6pm - 12 %

Nicely done .

[nowty]

So here is the history so far from 1pm today of the whole turbine with 100% being max power at 2,500 kW or 2.5MW.

1pm - 0 %
2pm - 2 %
3pm - 5 %
4pm - 3 %
5pm - 7 %
6pm - 12 %
7pm - 10 %
8pm - 19 %

Note - the current 9pm forecast has been significantly reduced downwards from nearly 100% to 27%. It will be another hour before we see what it turns out to be but it seems that they are using more realistic data for the current estimated hour than future estimated hours.

EDIT - I'll probably stay up till 1am and post if its still increasing.

[nowty]

So here is the history so far from 1pm today of the whole turbine with 100% being max power at 2,500 kW or 2.5MW.

1pm - 0 %
2pm - 2 %
3pm - 5 %
4pm - 3 %
5pm - 7 %
6pm - 12 %
7pm - 10 %
8pm - 19 %
9pm - 32 %

Increasing !

50% by midnight

[Joeboy]

I really hope they are feeding back the data generated to refine the prediction model over a relatively tight window.

Best of fortune to them in that as its a hard go anywhere to predict wind, never mind with a load of engaged eyeballs!

Nonetheless, it's a part of it, what they signed up for and for all of us remote viewers a large part now the build is done and it is up and running(turning).

P.S their prediction model as is, is shit.

I wouldn't miss any sleep Nowty...

[nowty]

I really hope they are feeding back the data generated to refine the prediction model over a relatively tight window.

Best of fortune to them in that as its a hard go anywhere to predict wind, never mind with a load of engaged eyeballs!

Nonetheless, it's a part of it, what they signed up for and for all of us remote viewers a large part now the build is done and it is up and running(turning).

P.S their prediction model as is, is shit.

I wouldn't miss any sleep Nowty...

1pm - 0 %
2pm - 2 %
3pm - 5 %
4pm - 3 %
5pm - 7 %
6pm - 12 %
7pm - 10 %
8pm - 19 %
9pm - 32 %
10pm - 26 %

Dropping now
I'll do one more update at midnight, my live wind reports look good for this hour.