Part ownership of a Ripple Wind Turbine, fancy it?

[AE-NMidlands]

I have found the other (account balance) line on the graph... if you change their recommended payment it appears from behind the single projection line and diverges from the recommended balance.


Quite useful... and I now think it probably does take potential Ripple payments into account, as it is quite similar to my projections.
A

(and my Ripple "next 4 days" projection has been stuck for 3 days, currently only showing predictions up to today!)

[nowty]

(and my Ripple "next 4 days" projection has been stuck for 3 days, currently only showing predictions up to today!)

Good spot, I had not noticed that even though I tend to look at it most days to compare with the weather forecasts.

[nowty]

Found this publication, a bit old from 2005 but has some interesting tables about UK wind resource capacity factors.
https://www.eci.ox.ac.uk/publications/d ... source.pdf

One of the tables from that publication.


The original forecast for WT1 P75 was based on an average capacity factor of 30.5%, so should be similar to the above graph. Most years vary + / - 10% but last year (2021) the onshore UK wind resource has been deemed by UK Greencoat Wind as down 20% on baseline, worse year since 2010. Don't know how this years is performing yet in terms of available wind resource.

I have just worked out the capacity factors (CF) for WT1 since the start as now the June figures are in,

March 36.7% (based on 16 days pro rata)
April 25.8%
May 22.4%
June 15.0 %

Therefore the average CF for WT1 for the 4 months is about 25% which compares with circa 28% on that graph above so we are not far off 10% of the target figure so far, so all looks good, especially with the initial teething problems and the first service.

EDIT - June CF is actually 23.3% as Ripple have initially released incorrect data so average overall is now 27%.

[Adokforme]

Thanks for posting the CF figures Nowty, that's really informative and a great piece of digging.

Don't know if anyone has noticed that their output generation for the month of June appears awry. Currently mine is showing about two thirds of what their daily output figures total. They are aware and working on it.

Good fun all this, isn't it!

Edit, Only just realised but it may explain why Nowty's CF figure for June is only 15%!

[Joeboy]

Thanks for posting the CF figures Nowty, that's really informative and a great piece of digging.

Don't know if anyone has noticed that their output generation for the month of June appears awry. Currently mine is showing about two thirds of what their daily output figures total. They are aware and working on it.

Good fun all this, isn't it!

Edit, Only just realised but it may explain why Nowty's CF figure for June is only 15%!

Good call, have not been watching. Will keep an eye out for figure change

[nowty]

Thanks for posting the CF figures Nowty, that's really informative and a great piece of digging.

Don't know if anyone has noticed that their output generation for the month of June appears awry. Currently mine is showing about two thirds of what their daily output figures total. They are aware and working on it.

Good fun all this, isn't it!

Edit, Only just realised but it may explain why Nowty's CF figure for June is only 15%!

Good call, have not been watching. Will keep an eye out for figure change

Thanks for pointing that out, now I look at the daily historic numbers for June it cant be that low so instead of waiting for Ripple to correct the monthly total, I've counted up the historic daily figures and make June's CF at 23.3% which gives an average capacity since start up of 27% which is practically bang on baseline.

[Adokforme]

Thanks for posting the CF figures Nowty, that's really informative and a great piece of digging.

Don't know if anyone has noticed that their output generation for the month of June appears awry. Currently mine is showing about two thirds of what their daily output figures total. They are aware and working on it.

Good fun all this, isn't it!

Edit, Only just realised but it may explain why Nowty's CF figure for June is only 15%!

Good call, have not been watching. Will keep an eye out for figure change

Thanks for pointing that out, now I look at the daily historic numbers for June it cant be that low so instead of waiting for Ripple to correct the monthly total, I've counted up the historic daily figures and make June's CF at 23.3% which gives an average capacity since start up of 27% which is practically bang on baseline.

Ripples webite now showing corrected figures so prompt action from them there.

[nowty]

And for future reference I work out that from both WT1 and WT2 offer documents, the average annual Capacity Factors (CF) are,

Graig Fatha (WT1) is forecasted for a CF of 30.5 %
Kirk Hill (WT2) is forecasted for a CF of 36.2 %

[AE-NMidlands]

Thanks for pointing that out, now I look at the daily historic numbers for June it cant be that low so instead of waiting for Ripple to correct the monthly total, I've counted up the historic daily figures and make June's CF at 23.3% which gives an average capacity since start up of 27% which is practically bang on baseline.

but when do you log the daily figure? I have found that a few days after it is posted it gets tweaked upwards! I guess it is why the payout in the early days was a little bit more than I was expecting.

(And they put the predictions page right within an hour or two. Told me " It looks like we need to deploy a small update. Did you want me to drop you an email once we've made the fix?")
A

[nowty]

Thanks for pointing that out, now I look at the daily historic numbers for June it cant be that low so instead of waiting for Ripple to correct the monthly total, I've counted up the historic daily figures and make June's CF at 23.3% which gives an average capacity since start up of 27% which is practically bang on baseline.

but when do you log the daily figure? I have found that a few days after it is posted it gets tweaked upwards! I guess it is why the payout in the early days was a little bit more than I was expecting.

(And they put the predictions page right within an hour or two. Told me " It looks like we need to deploy a small update. Did you want me to drop you an email once we've made the fix?")
A

I don't normally log the daily figures, so I had to count up all the 30 day historic ones. Luckily there were only 30 days in June or else I might have been a day out.

PS - The Ripple total for June is now correct and equal to my manual count, slightly more cashback than for May.