Timeshifting power use mainstream

[Joeboy]

That DC connection is looking good and clever! I'm away up.on the roof today to start prepping (banjos) for the ground mount string of three going up on top roof of house.

[Oldgreybeard]

Despite this our bill increased by about 230% in April

Do you really mean the increase was to about 330% or do you really mean it increased by about 130% to 230 % of the previous?

I honestly cannot understand how it increased by 230% (to 330%) unless you were on a fixed term tariff previously.

We are on a standard variable Economy 7 tariff and about 98% of our usage is at the off-peak rate, thanks to the batteries. We only have electricity, no gas, oil, solid fuel or whatever.

The standard variable off-peak rate actually increased by 236% in April this year (i.e. the price more than doubled). The standard variable peak rate increased by only about 40% - the company can over-charge off-peak usage to subsidise peak rate prices, OFGEM allow this apparently.

They are doing the same in October. I've had an email suggesting that the off-peak rate is going to rise by another 200% then. Combined those increases mean that our heating and hot water this winter will cost about 470% more (i.e. about 4.7 times) than it cost last winter.

All suppliers are doing this trick, so there is no merit in trying to change. The OFGEM price cap is just a joke for those that have off-peak electric heating, and last time I checked there were around 4 million users of E7.

[Joeboy]

Despite this our bill increased by about 230% in April

Do you really mean the increase was to about 330% or do you really mean it increased by about 130% to 230 % of the previous?

I honestly cannot understand how it increased by 230% (to 330%) unless you were on a fixed term tariff previously.

We are on a standard variable Economy 7 tariff and about 98% of our usage is at the off-peak rate, thanks to the batteries. We only have electricity, no gas, oil, solid fuel or whatever.

The standard variable off-peak rate actually increased by 236% in April this year (i.e. the price more than doubled). The standard variable peak rate increased by only about 40% - the company can over-charge off-peak usage to subsidise peak rate prices, OFGEM allow this apparently.

They are doing the same in October. I've had an email suggesting that the off-peak rate is going to rise by another 200% then. Combined those increases mean that our heating and hot water this winter will cost about 470% more (i.e. about 4.7 times) than it cost last winter.

All suppliers are doing this trick, so there is no merit in trying to change. The OFGEM price cap is just a joke for those that have off-peak electric heating, and last time I checked there were around 4 million users of E7.

If it is as bad as that In October I will have the supply cut off to my sons and run over a 16A cable from our place. He can shower and eat here. Over the Winter i'll rip out the dual meter stuff and single meter his property. Bollocks to them.

At them moment he is paying Flexible Octopus for normal power
27.90p/kWh S/C 49.79p/day
E7 rates
DAY RATE NIGHT RATE
29.70 p/kWh 22.01 p/kWh
STANDING CHARGE
49.88p/day

I know he is getting off lightly compared to many but i'm playing to minimise his costs. Hmmn, New project..

[Joeboy]

Despite this our bill increased by about 230% in April

Do you really mean the increase was to about 330% or do you really mean it increased by about 130% to 230 % of the previous?

I honestly cannot understand how it increased by 230% (to 330%) unless you were on a fixed term tariff previously.

We are on a standard variable Economy 7 tariff and about 98% of our usage is at the off-peak rate, thanks to the batteries. We only have electricity, no gas, oil, solid fuel or whatever.

The standard variable off-peak rate actually increased by 236% in April this year (i.e. the price more than doubled). The standard variable peak rate increased by only about 40% - the company can over-charge off-peak usage to subsidise peak rate prices, OFGEM allow this apparently.

They are doing the same in October. I've had an email suggesting that the off-peak rate is going to rise by another 200% then. Combined those increases mean that our heating and hot water this winter will cost about 470% more (i.e. about 4.7 times) than it cost last winter.

All suppliers are doing this trick, so there is no merit in trying to change. The OFGEM price cap is just a joke for those that have off-peak electric heating, and last time I checked there were around 4 million users of E7.

If it is as bad as that In October I will have the supply cut off to my sons and run over a 16A cable from our place. He can shower and eat here. Over the Winter i'll rip out the dual meter stuff and single meter his property. Bollocks to them.

At them moment he is paying Flexible Octopus for normal power
27.90p/kWh S/C 49.79p/day
E7 rates
DAY RATE NIGHT RATE
29.70 p/kWh 22.01 p/kWh
STANDING CHARGE
49.88p/day

I know he is getting off lightly compared to many but i'm playing to minimise his costs. Hmmn, New project..

These threads fairly sharpen the mind! Mail off to Octopus requesting the removal of both meters, isolation of the E7 incoming and a single smart meter installed running on the Flexible Octopus tarriff.

[Oldgreybeard]

Those E7 rates are similar to ours, we're currently paying 17.831p/kWh off peak, 33.26p/kWh peak rate and 41.71p/day standing charge. The "early warning" email tells us to expect the off-peak rate to rise to around 36p/kWh in October and the peak rate to rise to around 45p/kWh.

The key issue is that the differential between peak and off-peak rates is being massively eroded. Last winter our standard variable rate tariff was 7.56p/kWh off-peak, 27.773p peak rate and 22.97p/day standing charge. Last winter off-peak rate electricity was about 27% of the cost of peak rate, which was a very strong incentive to shift loads to the off-peak period (which we did). This winter the differential is very much smaller, off-peak electricity will be around 80% of the cost of peak rate.

[Andy]

I’ve actually just moved our home phone and one mobile sim to UW to secure their 12m fix tariff for exactly that. I had looked at the octopus tariff and almost fainted. Now roughly 26p night 60p day I forget the decimals. What was galling was that I looked on Sunday and it was 24p night and 50 something day. It went up overnight

[nowty]

Current wholesale prices are eye watering.
https://marketwatch.zenergi.co.uk/price/19-08-2022/

Many stories in this weeks press are now talking about £6k per year by April next year.
https://www.itv.com/news/2022-08-20/ene ... w-forecast

Gas and electricity prices could soar by more than threefold from an already record level, according to a worrying new forecast.

Experts have warned energy prices could spike at as much as £6,000 per year for the average household from next April.

The cost-of-living crisis is only set to get worse between now and next summer, as consultancy Auxilione predicted that the price cap on bills will gradually rise by more than £4,000 in the next eight months.

They said that the cap is expected to reach £3,576 in October, rising to £4,799 in January, and finally hitting £6,089 in April.

The consultants forecast that bills will slowly drop in the second half of next year, to £5,486 in July and £5,160 in October 2023.

[Oldgreybeard]

The thing that gets me is that the prices quoted all relate to the high price of gas, as that's the only fuel that has really got a lot more expensive. this is the data on prices so far this year, note how electricity tracks gas, despite the fact that gas only accounts for a part of our electricity generation (and not a big part during the summer):

Energy prices.jpg (48.7 KiB) Viewed 1050 times

Given that gas only makes up around half of our electricity generation, why has the electricity price very, very closely tracked the gas price, rather than only rising at about half the rate?

Wind, coal, nuclear and solar hasn't got any more expensive to generate, looking at Gridwatch they make up around half, maybe more, of our total generation.

Someone, somewhere, is profiteering when it comes to electricity generation, because of the way the prices seems to be in lock-step with the gas price.

[Joeboy]

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-62630787

Power & War.

[Oldgreybeard]

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-62630787

Power & War.

Yes, I get that gas prices are massively impacted by global factors, from the post-pandemic changes through to the war in Ukraine. However, why has the price of nuclear, wind, solar and coal generation risen by the same amount?

This makes no sense at all. Nuclear and coal power stations haven't had any major increases in their cost of generation, and wind and solar have had no increases at all, if anything wind should be coming down in price because of the reduced cost per kWp of new installations.

Something is distorting the electricity pricing, big time, and all the non-gas powered generators must be raking in huge profits, as their costs haven't really increased much, if anything. Worst case is that they will have seen the same wage rate inflation as everyone else, but that doesn't account for their generation cost having risen by hundreds of percent.

I would have expected the gradient of the electricity cost line to be roughly half that of the gas cost line, yet it clearly isn't.