Decision time...

[AE-NMidlands]

My current tarriff expires 24/10 - and it feels like the very worst time to make a commitment! We have had months of government paralysis and now there is to be another hiatus before we learn what their cunning plan will mean for us.

The choices I have currently both have standing charges of 47.31 and 27.22 pence per day for elec and gas respectively, but the rates are dramatically different: 71.22p / kWhr fixed as opposed to 29.58 variable for elec and 18.91 fixed versus 7.36 variable for gas.

Now... Gas prices are about as high as they have ever been, but we aren't into winter yet and if Putin keeps on as he is I can imagine international prices going through the roof as a desperate scramble for supplies ensues. Although the UK has its own gas I'm sure we shall still have to pay "international prices" for it as that is what enriches tory donors the most.

(Even if they decouple electricity from gas, we still use 8 times as much gas as electricity so a better electric price won't do us that much good.)
So the dilemma is how much higher do we think gas prices can go - could things get so bad that the variable rate could actually triple?

I suspect my rooftop pv won't materialise in the next 12 months, so transferring gas use to home-produced elec isn't going to help there either - not that winter pv output will do much to displace gas heating. Long-term I hope to do Ext wall insulation on a bit of the house but again that won't make much differnce in the near-term. At least Octopus don't have exit fees, so if something turns out to be abad deal I can move away - if anything better is available at that stage!
Anyone else having to choose just now?
A

[AE-NMidlands]

p.s. a financially-connected friend said

I understand that the variable rates are going to be capped for two years at about 25% above the current cap, so there's no way I would choose the fixed rates.

so that might be the clincher anyway.
I did wonder how the new subsidy could apply to people already on agreed fixed rates...

[Thebeeman]

My gut feel and fag packet calcs come up with about 30% for leccy. The "Green Levy" could be removed from fixed tariffs with no problems, where the money is coming from to pay us our FIT's is anyone's guess. I hope all the providers will now come up with some new tariffs fixed for 2 years so I would not fix for a week or two.

[Bugtownboy]

AE, if you’re not with Octopus, you can get a £50 cashback on referral by a friend

That’d help to offset some of the increase too.

[Thebeeman]

We were on a fix @ £0.16p until May this year and defaulted to variable but have just fitted batteries so we really need a sensible T.O.U. tariff to appear, at present no one is offering anything, especially to new customers.

[nowty]

From what I understand so far,

1) Standing charge will be the same as the already published rates for Oct by OFGEM which are similar to current rates.

2) Unit rates on capped standard variable rates will be capped to circa 38.5p / kWh for leccy and 9.5p / kWh for gas for two years. It can go down if market rates do but don't bank on it.

3) The temporary removal of green levies is already included in the newer capped rates.

4) We still get the £400 credit on our bills.

5) People on certain benefits will also get £650 paid in cash.

6) Something will be done for people on fixed rates but I think this is being left to the actual suppliers, something like your fixed rate will be reduced to match capped rates or you are allowed to move to capped rates without any penalties.

EDIT - Current E7 cheap rate is about 21p / kWh so I expect that to rise to about 28p / kWh, thats about the best your going to get if you cannot get onto Octopus Go.

[Oldgreybeard]

We were on a fix @ £0.16p until May this year and defaulted to variable but have just fitted batteries so we really need a sensible T.O.U. tariff to appear, at present no one is offering anything, especially to new customers.

We're in much the same boat. I opted for the best E7 tariff I could find about 18 months ago, it was great while it lasted, 7.56p/kWh off-peak, and because of the batteries we barely use any peak rate at all (our average is sitting at around 98% off-peak, 2% peak). I looked at fixing last October, but decided not to, and now we're stuck on a standard variable tariff that has increased massively.

Our standard variable tariff off-peak rate rose from 7.56p/kWh to 17.832p/kWh in April (so much for the much-vaunted 54% maximum!!!) and I expect it to rise to around 25p/kWh to 30p/kWh with the October increase. It is very clear that all the E7 suppliers are increasing their off-peak tariffs far more than their standard tariffs, presumably because there is no legislation preventing them from doing this. Grates a bit, knowing that those of us that are trying to do our bit, reduce peak rate demand etc, are just subsidising the profligate.

I keep looking around but no suppliers are offering a better deal at the moment, and some are just not accepting new customers, anyway. Not being able to have a smart meter seems a distinct problem, as it means that reasonably good value suppliers like Octopus don't want to know.

[Thebeeman]

The 'new' Liz in our lives has mentioned doing something for us oil users but no details yet. I'm in need of 1500 litres but can wait and see for a month or two.

[Thebeeman]

I keep looking around but no suppliers are offering a better deal at the moment, and some are just not accepting new customers, anyway. Not being able to have a smart meter seems a distinct problem, as it means that reasonably good value suppliers like Octopus don't want to know.

You would think that they could invent a smart meter that talked to the supplier via the Web as everything else does at present or is that too simple?
My Fronius inverter and Luxpower inverter with the new batteries all talk via the web.

[Oldgreybeard]

I keep looking around but no suppliers are offering a better deal at the moment, and some are just not accepting new customers, anyway. Not being able to have a smart meter seems a distinct problem, as it means that reasonably good value suppliers like Octopus don't want to know.

You would think that they could invent a smart meter that talked to the supplier via the Web as everything else does at present or is that too simple?
My Fronius inverter and Luxpower inverter with the new batteries all talk via the web.

They do more or less use the internet, I believe. The problem is with the connection method they use. They need the meters to be independent of any local area network owned by the consumer, for security reasons as well as the obvious problems related to consumers changing their internet provider or local area network and the meter needing to be reconfigured. For the Southern part of the UK they've opted to do this using the mobile phone network, in effect, and have just accepted that about 20% of households won't be able to have a smart meter with a direct connection like this.

When SSE were trying to get one to work here they tried to get the meter to use what they call a mesh system, where the meter talks to the meters of neighbours, passes data to them, and those meters then relay the data back to the main database. Unfortunately that mesh network is short range, and with our nearest neighbour being about 50 metres or so away the meter still couldn't get a connection.

It's a pity that they haven't used the system they use in the North of the country, as it seems that uses a radio link that is more reliable in hilly terrain, and can get meters to connect even when they are in locations where there is no reliable mobile signal. Better still would be if the mobile people could get good coverage everywhere. We've been told that there is no prospect of ever getting a mobile signal, as there aren't enough people living in the area to make installing a new mast a viable option. I dare say some would probably object if they did try to put a new mast up, too, as that seems to becoming commonplace in rural areas.