subsea infrastructure vulnerability

[Oldgreybeard]

You can bet that the authorities here know exactly who did it, say no more!

Indeed. I'd bet my pension that the Russians did it to up the pressure on those countries that had been getting gas from Russia, mainly Germany, in an attempt to pressure them into withdrawing support for Ukraine. I believe that even if Germany did a U turn (possible, there is still a lot of pro-Russian feeling there), then it would take around 6 to 9 months to repair the sabotaged pipelines.

There are two consistent themes emerging. Russia seems to seriously underestimate the fortitude and determination of those it has chosen to treat as adversaries, and conversely Russia seems to have seriously over-estimated it's own abilities. We had a glimpse of this not far from me, when the Russian security service chose to undertake a chemical weapons attack in a suburban area.

Leaving aside the mentality of anyone that could possibly think that using extremely toxic nerve agents was in any way justified, what stood out was the incompetence of the Russian operatives. They were so lacking in basic trade craft as to be have the competence level that might be expected from a crack head burglar. It should be no surprise that Russia has been shown to be far less of a formidable conventional force in the war in Ukraine than many would have believed just a short time before that kicked off.

In many ways the Russian regime is one of the most dangerous in the world, though. The combination of a burning ambition to rebuild a Russian Empire, the staggering incompetence and corruption within their own military, plus the fact that they are still a major nuclear capable force, makes me particularly concerned about the rest of the world pushing Russia into a corner, with no diplomatic way out. The "cornered rat" syndrome comes to mind. Anyone that has witnessed the manic and suicidal behaviour of a cornered rat will understand why this is something I feel the world needs to avoid at all costs with Putin and his cronies.

[AE-NMidlands]

and another take on it:
Russia is offended by the West refusing to take and pay for gas (and equally the W not seeming to have been spooked by the Russians pretending that the first pipeline has had to be shut because of a fault or maintenance problems)

So the sociopath ups the ante by blowing up his own (out-of-use) pipeline on the day a competing pipe from Norway is being opened to show that if he wants to strangle the west he can do the same to theirs too.
Not too implausible I think.
A

[Joeboy]

and another take on it:
Russia is offended by the West refusing to take and pay for gas (and equally the W not seeming to have been spooked by the Russians pretending that the first pipeline has had to be shut because of a fault or maintenance problems)

So the sociopath ups the ante by blowing up his own (out-of-use) pipeline on the day a competing pipe from Norway is being opened to show that if he wants to strangle the west he can do the same to theirs too.
Not too implausible I think.
A

A criminal state that would have Lenin spinning.

[Oldgreybeard]

and another take on it:
Russia is offended by the West refusing to take and pay for gas (and equally the W not seeming to have been spooked by the Russians pretending that the first pipeline has had to be shut because of a fault or maintenance problems)

So the sociopath ups the ante by blowing up his own (out-of-use) pipeline on the day a competing pipe from Norway is being opened to show that if he wants to strangle the west he can do the same to theirs too.
Not too implausible I think.
A

Highly plausible, hadn't thought of the implied threat to the Baltic Pipe, but that does indeed make a lot of sense from the twisted perspective of Putin. I really struggle to get my head around what Putin is trying to achieve. I know that he's a scholar of the old Imperial Russian school, and advocates the rebuilding of the Tsarist era Russian Empire, and that he saw the fall of the Soviet Union as a disastrous failing by his then bosses, when he was still working in the KGB (although even a blind man would see that Mikhail Gorbachev had no good choices to make, at the end of the Soviet era).

Putin's lack of understanding of his own countries capabilities, together with the reaction of other countries, even those seen as possible allies, like China, is the thing I find most surprising. The war in Ukraine has exposed the rotten underbelly of the Russian armed forces, from levels of incompetence that I don't think anyone from the West anticipated, to widespread corruption, that was, perhaps, more predictable.

For the past couple of years I've been following a few Russian YouTube channels, and what has hit me is how disconnected from reality many within Russia are. It seems that the older population believe all that Putin says, and only really have access to state media, like TV. Younger Russians are far more tech savvy, able to use VPNs and understand better how the media can be manipulated as a propaganda tool.

I know that YouTube is deeply flawed and biased, and that the underlying motive for the majority of "content creators" is to make money, and that inevitably skews the way they present things, but if anyone has a few hours to spare, and the inclination to see what younger Russians are thinking, then I can recommend the following channels (in no particular order):

https://www.youtube.com/c/NikiProshin Probably the least biased Russian channel. Niki seems to put a lot of effort into trying to give a balanced view, whilst still being pretty obviously anti-war.

https://www.youtube.com/c/MultiNfz Roman's views are not for the faint hearted. Avidly anti-Putin, moved to Georgia a few months ago, lots of bad language (which I've found seems to be a generic Russian trait), but his views are valid, as a young Russian that is very much against what his government is doing.

https://www.youtube.com/c/DepressedRussian and https://www.youtube.com/c/NatashasAdventures are both channels that give a view of life in the far east of Russia, not that well presented (IMHO), but do show how, even in the far reaches the actions of the Russian government are seriously impacting the lives of Russians. Natasha has now left Russia and is living in Georgia, like many others on YouTube I very strongly suspect this is mainly so she can continue to earn revenue from YouTube without too much hassle from the sanctions.

https://www.youtube.com/c/ZacktheRussian probably the most hard core anti-government young Russian on YouTube. Not the best content, but a useful insight into how protesters were treated, if you look back at videos from just before he left Russia (seems he had little choice, because of his anti-government protests).

There are several other Russian vloggers around, some better than others, but the above are channels that I've watched since before the war against Ukraine started, and I think they give a reasonably well balanced view of the way that younger Russians think. One stand out feature is that there is an overwhelming view that the people have no control over their government, and don't seem to think that they necessarily should have. It's as if government is something that is always imposed on the people, with no real opportunity for democracy. I'm not even convinced that most Russians actually want democracy - it seems not to be something that is valued at all by most Russians.

[rogeriko]

Aha a political thread. Two views for everyone to ponder.

1. The Americans/Western nations blew up the pipeline knowing full well everyone would blame Putin as all the previous posts have proven. Isnt propaganda wonderful.

2. There is only one problem with the world right now that we live in. Overpopulation. Think of Myxomatosis, strange how always a few rabbits survive, just enough to carry on the species.

[Joeboy]

Aha a political thread. Two views for everyone to ponder.

1. The Americans/Western nations blew up the pipeline knowing full well everyone would blame Putin as all the previous posts have proven. Isnt propaganda wonderful.

2. There is only one problem with the world right now that we live in. Overpopulation. Think of Myxomatosis, strange how always a few rabbits survive, just enough to carry on the species.

At no point did I say that or lay blame, I said you could do the job for 20 grand.
MEND have been doing it in Nigeria for decades.

[Oldgreybeard]

Aha a political thread. Two views for everyone to ponder.

1. The Americans/Western nations blew up the pipeline knowing full well everyone would blame Putin as all the previous posts have proven. Isnt propaganda wonderful.

2. There is only one problem with the world right now that we live in. Overpopulation. Think of Myxomatosis, strange how always a few rabbits survive, just enough to carry on the species.

Is that plausible? Seems to me that we need to look at motive, and who gains, as the bottom line with any action like this is to trace who actually benefits. Obviously there is zero benefit to the USA. Much as I detest US political interference, there isn't even the most tenuous of connections to them, and given their home political situation they can ill afford to be as stupid as to do such a pointless act.

Germany is the country most closely connected with this, after Russia. Germany still has a large pro-Russia faction, allied with the strong level of Green support for anything that means not restarting/maintaining their nuclear plants. Hard to see how Germany could do this, both because they don't have a plausible motive, plus they almost certainly don't have the technical capability to do this covertly.

That really leaves the Baltic states, Scandinavia or possibly the UK. The Baltic states are a non-starter, they just don't have the technical capability to undertake this action covertly. Out of all the Scandinavian states, one stands out as having the technical ability to do this without being detected, and that's Sweden. Sweden is probably more competent in the area of military submarine technology that many other Western states. However, Sweden doesn't specialise in the type of covert submarine technology that the GUGI unit has, neither does Sweden have any real motive.

That really leaves Norway and the UK. Norway definitely has the technology, as does the UK. Pretty much all of that is civil, rather than military, though, and that presents some serious issues when it comes to plausible deniability.

As with all these things, where there will never be definitive proof, it comes down to a balance of probability. Which state is most likely to do this?

Occam's Razor applies, and there seems very little doubt that this is most probably the actions of the Russian state, just like the dozens of other maverick operations by the Russian state over the past couple of decades. `This isn't a question of Russia bad, UK, or USA, good, it is a question as to which state was most likely to have done this and which state had the most to gain by doing it.

[nowty]

Makes me think the Morrocco to UK Wind and Solar project isn't going anywhere soon.
Not that I ever thought it was due to political and security risks.
viewtopic.php?f=11&t=893&start=30

[Joeboy]

Makes me think the Morrocco to UK Wind and Solar project isn't going anywhere soon.
Not that I ever thought it was due to political and security risks.
viewtopic.php?f=11&t=893&start=30

It has always been.like that. Power & comms leads are scattered all over the seabed. Nothing protects them. I personally have moved one of the fibre optic comms lines running to Israel. I was careful and very aware.
There is more chance of a fishing trawler dragging the cables than a terrorist act. That is designed for, terrorist acts sadly, not so much.

[Oldgreybeard]

Very, very commonplace for undersea cables to be interfered with, both accidentally and deliberately. I doubt there has been any ASW patrol in the past couple of decades that hasn't come across an attempt to interfere with/intercept a subsea cable. It's so commonplace that one attempt even made it on to a recent episode of the TV programme "Warship".

As mentioned before, who gains by severing two shut off gas lines, that were unlikely to be turned on again for years? Certainly not the customers in Europe, at least one of which may well have been prepared to go against almost universal global opinion and request that they be turned on. Doesn't benefit any other gas pipeline operator either, as it very much highlights their vulnerability to attack (and the Baltic Pipe agreement was announced the same day - bit of a coincidence there).

Flip this around, and who had the most to lose? Russia lost nothing, the pipelines were off and Russia has made it clear that neither would, or could, be turned on due to "maintenance problems" related to the supply of sanctioned spares. Sanctions won't be lifted until Russia withdraws from Ukrainian territory, and it is not going to do that unless Ukraine drives its forces out. Best will in the world that is going to take years, not weeks or months.

So who really gains by doing damage to unused pipelines that are unlikely to have been put back in service before the 6 to 9 months it will take to repair them, even if they hadn't been damaged?

The only plausible answer is that Russia gains. On the day of the announcement of the Baltic Pipe from Norway to Poland this action shows the World that Russia can take out pipelines in the Baltic any time it wishes, and so can retain control of gas supplies to Europe.

If someone can come up with a credible beneficiary other than Russia I'm all ears, as I can't think of one.