subsea infrastructure vulnerability

[Joeboy]

Very, very commonplace for undersea cables to be interfered with, both accidentally and deliberately. I doubt there has been any ASW patrol in the past couple of decades that hasn't come across an attempt to interfere with/intercept a subsea cable. It's so commonplace that one attempt even made it on to a recent episode of the TV programme "Warship".

As mentioned before, who gains by severing two shut off gas lines, that were unlikely to be turned on again for years? Certainly not the customers in Europe, at least one of which may well have been prepared to go against almost universal global opinion and request that they be turned on. Doesn't benefit any other gas pipeline operator either, as it very much highlights their vulnerability to attack (and the Baltic Pipe agreement was announced the same day - bit of a coincidence there).

Flip this around, and who had the most to lose? Russia lost nothing, the pipelines were off and Russia has made it clear that neither would, or could, be turned on due to "maintenance problems" related to the supply of sanctioned spares. Sanctions won't be lifted until Russia withdraws from Ukrainian territory, and it is not going to do that unless Ukraine drives its forces out. Best will in the world that is going to take years, not weeks or months.

So who really gains by doing damage to unused pipelines that are unlikely to have been put back in service before the 6 to 9 months it will take to repair them, even if they hadn't been damaged?

The only plausible answer is that Russia gains. On the day of the announcement of the Baltic Pipe from Norway to Poland this action shows the World that Russia can take out pipelines in the Baltic any time it wishes, and so can retain control of gas supplies to Europe.

If someone can come up with a credible beneficiary other than Russia I'm all ears, as I can't think of one.

America, UK, Ukraine & Saudi Arabia. One big co-alition. As plausible as any other...

[rogeriko]

The credible beneficiarys would be the western governments when they bomb Russia to oblivion without their populations dissaproving.

[Oldgreybeard]

America, UK, Ukraine & Saudi Arabia. One big co-alition. As plausible as any other...

Definitely not in the USA's interests right now. Biden is up to his armpits as it is, last thing his government needs is anything more contentious with Russia and Germany, In all probability Biden's pro-Ukraine stance will invigorate the pro-Russia Republicans that helped get Trump into power and get him out at the next election.

The UK is up to it's neck with internal strife, doesn't have the military capability to do it (the one submarine that could do it has been dead in the water for at least five years and isn't likely to get back into service any time soon). Hard to see a motive for the UK, either, as we're gaining a LOT by acting as a big LNG terminal for Europe at the moment.

Ukraine doesn't have the technical capability, never has. Their navy is pretty trivial, as they gave up all their military subsea capability and have only retained their hired in oil exploration stuff in the Black Sea. Mobilising a covert subsea attack would be well beyond Ukraine's technical ability. Same goes for Saudi, they have bugger all in terms of military subsea technology, plus they would never have been able to get kit from there to the Baltic undetected.

Sweden, Germany, possibly Norway, or Russia are the only contenders technically. Out of those, Sweden and Norway are both incredibly conservative (with a small "c") when it comes to anything that might be seen as military provocation. Both have got themselves in hot water with their own populations when dealing with Russian submarines invading their territorial waters over the years.

Germany has the technical capability, probably as advanced as the USA in terms of of covert operations in the Baltic. I'm not aware of them having a serviceable undersea sabotage capability anything like as good as the very well proven and used GUGI capabilities from Murmansk, but they may have. Hard to see a motive, though, given the deep divide within German politics.

My money is still on Russia. They have the capability, they have been conducting covert subsea operations in the Baltic for decades, they have a very good motive (showing the vulnerability of the new Baltic Pipe) and they have absolutely nothing at all to lose.

Sometimes, it it looks like a duck, and quacks like a duck, it really is a duck.

[Joeboy]

America, UK, Ukraine & Saudi Arabia. One big co-alition. As plausible as any other...

Definitely not in the USA's interests right now. Biden is up to his armpits as it is, last thing his government needs is anything more contentious with Russia and Germany, In all probability Biden's pro-Ukraine stance will invigorate the pro-Russia Republicans that helped get Trump into power and get him out at the next election.

The UK is up to it's neck with internal strife, doesn't have the military capability to do it (the one submarine that could do it has been dead in the water for at least five years and isn't likely to get back into service any time soon). Hard to see a motive for the UK, either, as we're gaining a LOT by acting as a big LNG terminal for Europe at the moment.

Ukraine doesn't have the technical capability, never has. Their navy is pretty trivial, as they gave up all their military subsea capability and have only retained their hired in oil exploration stuff in the Black Sea. Mobilising a covert subsea attack would be well beyond Ukraine's technical ability. Same goes for Saudi, they have bugger all in terms of military subsea technology, plus they would never have been able to get kit from there to the Baltic undetected.

Sweden, Germany, possibly Norway, or Russia are the only contenders technically. Out of those, Sweden and Norway are both incredibly conservative (with a small "c") when it comes to anything that might be seen as military provocation. Both have got themselves in hot water with their own populations when dealing with Russian submarines invading their territorial waters over the years.

Germany has the technical capability, probably as advanced as the USA in terms of of covert operations in the Baltic. I'm not aware of them having a serviceable undersea sabotage capability anything like as good as the very well proven and used GUGI capabilities from Murmansk, but they may have. Hard to see a motive, though, given the deep divide within German politics.

My money is still on Russia. They have the capability, they have been conducting covert subsea operations in the Baltic for decades, they have a very good motive (showing the vulnerability of the new Baltic Pipe) and they have absolutely nothing at all to lose.

Sometimes, it it looks like a duck, and quacks like a duck, it really is a duck.

Now I realise why we avoid politics...
Would you like a ramming stick to go with your pov?

[Mr Gus]

& whilst it was reported that the "leak" ..was outside of any sovereign waters now they are reported as being in both Denmark & Swede's economic zones, just to confuse the average head in the sand, news read to to them citizens of gb news channel.

https://brilliantmaps.com/territorial-waters/

[Oldgreybeard]

America, UK, Ukraine & Saudi Arabia. One big co-alition. As plausible as any other...

Definitely not in the USA's interests right now. Biden is up to his armpits as it is, last thing his government needs is anything more contentious with Russia and Germany, In all probability Biden's pro-Ukraine stance will invigorate the pro-Russia Republicans that helped get Trump into power and get him out at the next election.

The UK is up to it's neck with internal strife, doesn't have the military capability to do it (the one submarine that could do it has been dead in the water for at least five years and isn't likely to get back into service any time soon). Hard to see a motive for the UK, either, as we're gaining a LOT by acting as a big LNG terminal for Europe at the moment.

Ukraine doesn't have the technical capability, never has. Their navy is pretty trivial, as they gave up all their military subsea capability and have only retained their hired in oil exploration stuff in the Black Sea. Mobilising a covert subsea attack would be well beyond Ukraine's technical ability. Same goes for Saudi, they have bugger all in terms of military subsea technology, plus they would never have been able to get kit from there to the Baltic undetected.

Sweden, Germany, possibly Norway, or Russia are the only contenders technically. Out of those, Sweden and Norway are both incredibly conservative (with a small "c") when it comes to anything that might be seen as military provocation. Both have got themselves in hot water with their own populations when dealing with Russian submarines invading their territorial waters over the years.

Germany has the technical capability, probably as advanced as the USA in terms of of covert operations in the Baltic. I'm not aware of them having a serviceable undersea sabotage capability anything like as good as the very well proven and used GUGI capabilities from Murmansk, but they may have. Hard to see a motive, though, given the deep divide within German politics.

My money is still on Russia. They have the capability, they have been conducting covert subsea operations in the Baltic for decades, they have a very good motive (showing the vulnerability of the new Baltic Pipe) and they have absolutely nothing at all to lose.

Sometimes, it it looks like a duck, and quacks like a duck, it really is a duck.

Now I realise why we avoid politics...
Would you like a ramming stick to go with your pov?

Not really a point of view as much as a list of reasons why a thing may or may not be possible, in a practical sense. Say the UK wants to do it. Where is the kit? Answer is that it's still U/S. This has to have been done covertly (i.e. by a military force) and has to have been done sub-surface, for very practical reasons. No surface ship operating a diving team would get anywhere near the pipeline without being detected, given the extra surveillance that operates over critical cable and pipeline routes.

That leaves us with few choices. It has to be a state that has a suitable military submarine sabotage capability that could sail covertly (i.e. not with a surface mother ship - that would be a dead giveaway) to that part of the Baltic, bearing in mind it has to get through the very narrow Skagerak and Kategat to get to the site.

That leaves us with the states around the Baltic as being pretty much the only ones that could have done it, and out of those only one has a very capable and well-proven underwater sabotage capability.

May be it was one of the others, but logic suggests that is unlikely, given the capability each state has,

If this had happened somewhere open, rather than a practically closed bit of water, there would be far more suspects, I'm sure. Just hard to see how a country like, say, Saudi, could magic up such a military capability and transport it to the Baltic without detection, and get it back out again.

[Joeboy]

I'm really sorry but I'm going to stop talking about this. This doesn't have to be complicated nor does the equipment to do it. Which was my point from the beginning. These assets have always been vulnerable. Doesn't need cold War gear to do it or even nation state level.

To inject some humour here are a few 'out there' scenario's.

1. China did it to ensure a steady gas supply over the coming Winter.
2. Greenpeace stepped up their game.
3. Estonia did it.
4. The Secret world council of RE did it to speed up the transition process.
5. Saudi Arabia did it to protect a reopened market.
6. Australian SBS did it to protect the newly opened LNG shipping market.
7. Germany did it in an exemplary bridge burning exercise.

No 2 is my fave.

8. A fishing vessel has dragged some of the dumped ww2 munitions, they have went bang, the subsea shock wave set off others.

[Mr Gus]

"No way back" is my favourite, reason for "who-dunnit" to steady any wobbles in Ukraine support that causes more bickering in European "partners" in order to prevent a climb-down from the likes of Germany over a hard winter.

Nordstream was always an effing liability for giving threatening crazies more bluffing potential, ..glad it's gone.

Anything can be done when the opposing country is deemed to lie 100% of the time, because why would anyone believe a country that throws the lies & confusion switch all day every day!? ..so many cases of dirty deeds, deny, deny deny, ...then latterly admissions when in the clear.


No pun intended, but it does highlight the case for more "on-shore" renewables.right?

[Oldgreybeard]

"No way back" is my favourite, reason for "who-dunnit" to steady any wobbles in Ukraine support that causes more bickering in European "partners" in order to prevent a countdown from the likes of Germany over a hard winter.

Nordstream was always an effing liability for giving threatening crazies more bluffing potential, ..glad it's gone.

Anything can be done when the opposing country is deemed to lie 100% of the time, because why would anyone believe a country that throws the lies & confusion switch all day every day!? ..so many cases of dirty deeds, deny, deny deny, ...then latterly admissions when in the clear.


No pun intended, but it does highlight the case for more "on-shore" renewables.right?

I agree with you, Nordstream was crazy, particularly given the political leverage over the EU it gave. Hard to understand how any nation, or group of nations, would make themselves willingly beholden to any other large state. Many nations have regretted being beholden to the UK, the USA, other European empires over the years, even going back millennia to nations beholden to the empires of old. Being dependent on another nation for simple survival is not a good place to be.

One lesson that every nation should learn from this is to try their damnedest to make themselves energy independent, especially those nations that have cold winters and where a loss of energy supplied by other could easily lead to many deaths in winter.

Sadly I don't have a lot of faith that any country will learn this hard lesson about the importance of energy independence.

[Mr Gus]

Someone with a fat manilla envelope likely crept around whispering improved East West relations within europe, making them more like us.
That worked well then

After that Russian school terrorist takedown (2002)? all my hopes for Russia straightening itself out evaporated.

+ a new wave of refugees as Russian society simply runs away from tackling their own government, organised firebombing of recruitment stations, police (fsb etc) needs to happen, follow them home & firebomb their homes too, make the thugs scared for a change.
Jeez there's enough flammable liquids in handy glass bottles to set Moscow & other stink-holes alight 10x over.

Ex FSB a-holes like Kirik "preaching the word of God & talking up genocide with a clean soul for the perpetrators of war is yet another reminder why I find the "jesus" religion imbecilic & contemptible.

So many holy Joe's sending people to their graves based on lies, & despite technology, science etc, it still has the same damned stranglehold.