winter blackouts, news trickle out (just like covid)

[spread-tee]

Spot on OGB, an interruption of the gas supply is very difficult to deal with on a large scale, whereas if the electricity goes off most of our CH systems shut down anyway but the gas grid stays pressurised and "safe".

Desp

[marshman]

__

[Moxi]

The potential of power outages is obviously real given the mix of generating systems is reliant on gas and WT to a greater or lesser extent according to what the weather is doing on a given day, the probability that it will occur depends on many factors - we may be lucky, or we may not, time will tell.

The probability that a shortage of gas will result in turn in a shortage of electric power depends on the governments discussions with large industrial users and how they have set the triad pricing structure for the forthcoming period, the concern I feel is that even curtailing heavy industries supplies for general public generation there may still be insufficient gas volumes available to keep the CCGT's running for long enough (ie until the wind returns).

Government will NOT want to have any interruption to the supplies to the general population - they know they will not survive such an event and if they fail to stop it then they are committing political suicide, I suspect though that their discussions with heavy industry and the generators has come up with a GAP in gas savings to available CCGT capacity and as such theres a statistically probability of generation not meeting demand.

The only option then is to ration power, the question then will be will we all share the pain, or will there be a Geopolitical divide as they seek to limit their vote losses?

Moxi

[Oldgreybeard]

Last time this happened the government shut down industrial users in a rolling pattern as well as shutting down electricity supplies right across the country, again in a rolling pattern, but avoiding critical facilities like hospitals. It worked OK, I lived through it as a student, and although it was a bit of a nuisance it wasn't the end of the world.

It did seriously change British politics, though, probably forever. Has we not had the industrial issues and poor government during those first few years of the 1970s then we would never have ended up with Thatcher. If Thatcher had not ever come to power then a lot of the major issues we have today that are directly related to critical infrastructure being under the control of entities that do not have much interest in the welfare of the population probably wouldn't exist, either. Government needs to get back to understanding that one of its key functions is to ensure that it controls all the key infrastructure the population needs to survive and prosper, not some oligarch in a far off land that happens to be a good mate, or who chucks the metaphorical equivalent of a fat brown envelope at the ruling political party.

[Tinbum]

I'm expecting them this winter.

One think that strikes me is if their are rolling blackouts in areas then they will also be switching off renewable sources such as PV and wind. So could it be that they are done using the smart meter relay? This is one reason I've kept one of my supplies without a smart meter despite being harassed and threatened repeatedly by e-onNext.

[Oldgreybeard]

I'm pretty sure they can selectively switch at quite a fine level within the grid, so can probably make sure wind and solar farms mostly remain connected. The exceptions would be all the microgeneration that people like us have installed, and which will mostly stop generating when the power goes off. Given that they are most likely to schedule cuts during peak usage, which is the daytime, losing generation would be a nuisance, and gets me back to pondering whether or not a small inverter type generator could keep an islanded PV system alive.

Just being able to keep a PV inverter charging the batteries in the event of a cut could be both cost saving and also reduce the impact we'd have on the grid when the power comes back on. I've ordered a generator changeover switch and an interlocked commando fixed plug, and will get that installed into our house supply cable just in case (easy to do as we have a long run of armoured cable supplying the house from the meter kiosk).

[Mr Gus]

thanks boys, that reminds me, my 1960's tilley lamp needs prepping.
same style as got us through the 1970s ..memories.

[Oldgreybeard]

thanks boys, that reminds me, my 1960's tilley lamp needs prepping.
same style as got us through the 1970s ..memories.

As mentioned elsewhere, I inherited the Tilley lamp that we used in the winter of 1970, during the rolling power cuts. Even still have a couple of the original spare mantles for it (probably need to treat them as hazardous waste now - they are slightly radioactive!). I've still got a few litres of paraffin, need to get some meths though, and find a new wick for the clip-on meths fired pre-heater thing. IIRC, last time I used the Tilley I cheated and pre-heated it with a small gas blowtorch. Might still be the best way, avoids the smell of meths and the paraffin smell if I'm impatient and don't wait long enough for the vaporiser to work properly.

[Mr Gus]

it was so many years (decades) that id forgott tilley mantle protocols.

need to youtube it & grab some, i have 5 litres of paraffin in the garage, & a swedish paraffin heater just in case.

[Stinsy]

I have a Coleman branded lamp that is very similar to a Tilley, I use it when camping. I don't think I'd use it indoors though. A USB battery pack and LED lantern would be much safer and more convenient for all concerned.