UK Wind Record

[Mart]

I've got some numbers spinning around in my head, but I don't know if they mean anything or not (other than that I'm pretty weird).

So, no laughing at me, but here goes ..... for the max wind power to go up 1GW (each time) we need an extra 1GW of wind generation, plus of course the ability to manage it without curtailment.

1GW of offshore wind (where much of the extra is now coming from), has a cf of ~50%, so is equal to 0.5GW of average generation through the year.

The UK consumes about 38GW on average, but let's call it 50GW for simplicity and maths, and it will start to rise this decade.

So 0.5GW v's 50GW is 1%.

Not a great rule/guide, but it suggests to me that each time we see a 1GW rise in the record, we have shifted another 1% of leccy generation to wind pa.

As I said, it's a mess, but these rising records reflect a steady shift to RE.


Speaking of RE, anyone know what the UK mix is looking like for 2022? 2019 was around 37%, and we have been growing it around 3.5%pa. 2020 was much higher but helped by lower overall demand due to Covid, and 2021 was poor due to lower than average winds, so I don't have a great reference point for 2022, other than 2019 + 10(ish)%.

Edit - Just to add RE was 43.1% in 2020, flattered by lower demand, and 42.8% in 2021 a poor wind year.

[Ken]

https://assets.publishing.service.gov.u ... r_2022.pdf

there must be another version for Q1 2022

[Mart]

Thanks Ken, very interesting.

Fingers crossed for RE closing in on 50% next year, maybe reaching it in 2024.

[Ken]

Thanks Ken, very interesting.

Fingers crossed for RE closing in on 50% next year, maybe reaching it in 2024.

I agree with your guess but dont know if we will know when we get there. We may be closer than we think if we counted embedded production but ruled out all the export we have been doing to France. Reading this i am not sure we could be there now


"Section 5: Electricity
Quarter 2 of 2022 saw .....net exports of 4.0 TWh. (all gas ?)

Renewable electricity generation increased 12 per cent to 30.5 TWh as generation from wind increased
substantially. Fossil fuels generation increased by 3.1 per cent to 33.2 TWh."

So if we subtract the 4 TWh from the 33.2 TWh ie 29.2 TWh then less than the 30.5TWh for RE . So as soon as we stop exporting as the norm it will 50%

[Countrypaul]

Thanks Ken, very interesting.

Fingers crossed for RE closing in on 50% next year, maybe reaching it in 2024.

I agree with your guess but dont know if we will know when we get there. We may be closer than we think if we counted embedded production but ruled out all the export we have been doing to France. Reading this i am not sure we could be there now


"Section 5: Electricity
Quarter 2 of 2022 saw .....net exports of 4.0 TWh. (all gas ?)

Renewable electricity generation increased 12 per cent to 30.5 TWh as generation from wind increased
substantially. Fossil fuels generation increased by 3.1 per cent to 33.2 TWh."

So if we subtract the 4 TWh from the 33.2 TWh ie 29.2 TWh then less than the 30.5TWh for RE . So as soon as we stop exporting as the norm it will 50%

I assume that Nuclear is not RE and it is not fossil fuel, so presumably not included in the figures so far and might make RE slightly less than 50%, or alternatively non fossil fuel should already be well above 50%.

Any others not included?

[Mart]

Hiya Paul, nuclear is classed as low carbon generation, so not a perfect rule of thumb, but say 20% (it's slipping, as reactors age out, but HPC should bring it back to 20% before the end of the decade).

So, nuclear 15-20%, RE 45%(ish), and FF's 35-40%.

But as Ken mentions there's also imports and exports, and the RE / low carbon / FF generation that that can be.


@Ken, yep, great point, the export to France for around a year, will have altered our generation, if not consumption, so presumably has to have some impact, or needs to be explained (in notes) when the numbers for 2022 come out.

[nowty]

Hiya Paul, nuclear is classed as low carbon generation, so not a perfect rule of thumb, but say 20% (it's slipping, as reactors age out, but HPC should bring it back to 20% before the end of the decade).

By the time HPC is operational Heysham 1 and Hartlepool will have closed so only increasing net nuke by about 1 GW. Within a year of HPC starting up Heysham 2 and Torness will also be closing and losing another 2.5 GW.

So by the end of the decade we will only have Sizewell B and HPC left operating and be roughly down a net 1.5 GW of nuke from where we are today. So, it will be more like 10%.

[nowty]

What a difference a day makes.

[Mart]

Hiya Paul, nuclear is classed as low carbon generation, so not a perfect rule of thumb, but say 20% (it's slipping, as reactors age out, but HPC should bring it back to 20% before the end of the decade).

By the time HPC is operational Heysham 1 and Hartlepool will have closed so only increasing net nuke by about 1 GW. Within a year of HPC starting up Heysham 2 and Torness will also be closing and losing another 2.5 GW.

So by the end of the decade we will only have Sizewell B and HPC left operating and be roughly down a net 1.5 GW of nuke from where we are today. So, it will be more like 10%.

No worries, SZC might be along in 2035+.

[nowty]

Hiya Paul, nuclear is classed as low carbon generation, so not a perfect rule of thumb, but say 20% (it's slipping, as reactors age out, but HPC should bring it back to 20% before the end of the decade).

By the time HPC is operational Heysham 1 and Hartlepool will have closed so only increasing net nuke by about 1 GW. Within a year of HPC starting up Heysham 2 and Torness will also be closing and losing another 2.5 GW.

So by the end of the decade we will only have Sizewell B and HPC left operating and be roughly down a net 1.5 GW of nuke from where we are today. So, it will be more like 10%.

No worries, SZC might be along in 2035+.

Just in time for Sizewell B to close.