Octopus saving sessions coming 1st Nov

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Joeboy
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Re: Octopus saving sessions coming 1st Nov

#591

Post by Joeboy »

Fintray wrote: Wed Apr 05, 2023 11:13 am
cycling_mike wrote: Wed Apr 05, 2023 9:59 am Folk are/were using the system to gain advantage (£££) in a way that was not the purpose of the system.

We may justify this to ourselves in a variety of ways but folk did "game"the system.
Let's get this into perspective Vitol VPI, Uniper and SSE ripped everyone off to the tune of £525M.
https://www.energylivenews.com/2023/03/ ... loopholes/
Personally I game everything all the time, some are short term games, some are long, its called being human. This is no different. :D
It sure doesn't need justifying. :lol:
Sun's come out Iain! 8-)
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Fintray
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Re: Octopus saving sessions coming 1st Nov

#592

Post by Fintray »

Joeboy wrote: Wed Apr 05, 2023 11:20 am Sun's come out Iain! 8-)
Eh, where???
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Joeboy
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Re: Octopus saving sessions coming 1st Nov

#593

Post by Joeboy »

Fintray wrote: Wed Apr 05, 2023 11:30 am
Joeboy wrote: Wed Apr 05, 2023 11:20 am Sun's come out Iain! 8-)
Eh, where???
Had 5.5kW for literally seconds there. It's still outputting 3.2kW so that's a good grey sky day. Panels had a good wash too! :ugeek:

Sky & EV are a close match in colour today.

Image
19.7kW PV SE, VI, HM, EN & DW
Ripple 7kW WT & Gen to date 19MWh
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95kWh Heater storage
12kWh 210ltr HWT.
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Zoned GCH & Hive 2
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Fintray
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Re: Octopus saving sessions coming 1st Nov

#594

Post by Fintray »

Joeboy wrote: Wed Apr 05, 2023 11:37 am
Fintray wrote: Wed Apr 05, 2023 11:30 am
Joeboy wrote: Wed Apr 05, 2023 11:20 am Sun's come out Iain! 8-)
Eh, where???
Had 5.5kW for literally seconds there. It's still outputting 3.2kW so that's a good grey sky day. Panels had a good wash too! :ugeek:
Oh, I must have blinked and missed it! :roll:
3.87kWp PV
10.24kWp PV SolarEdge system
Tesla Powerwall 2
100 x 47mm Navitron tubes (still being installed!) Now likely to be removed for more PV.
MK2 PV router DHW diverter
Morso 5kW WBS
Vaillant AroTherm 10kW ASHP
Nissan Leaf
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Joeboy
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Re: Octopus saving sessions coming 1st Nov

#595

Post by Joeboy »

Fintray wrote: Wed Apr 05, 2023 11:48 am
Joeboy wrote: Wed Apr 05, 2023 11:37 am
Fintray wrote: Wed Apr 05, 2023 11:30 am

Eh, where???
Had 5.5kW for literally seconds there. It's still outputting 3.2kW so that's a good grey sky day. Panels had a good wash too! :ugeek:
Oh, I must have blinked and missed it! :roll:
Must have! The joy of the batteries, catches it regardless. :D
19.7kW PV SE, VI, HM, EN & DW
Ripple 7kW WT & Gen to date 19MWh
42kWh LFPO4 storage
95kWh Heater storage
12kWh 210ltr HWT.
73kWh HI5
Deep insulation, air leak ct'd home
Zoned GCH & Hive 2
WBSx2
Low energy bulbs
Veg patches & fruit trees
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nowty
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Re: Octopus saving sessions coming 1st Nov

#596

Post by nowty »

There are some "deep dive" National Grid ESO events over the next couple of days to review process for next winters Demand Flexibility "aka Saving Sessions". One of the agenda items is what to do about the domestic "In Day" adjustment window in the Process & Operational Delivery session. :?
https://www.nationalgrideso.com/documen ... 6/download
I've registered for the webinar so I'll report back if I can sense which way the wind is blowing.

Baselines: options
Option 1: remove in-day adjustment

Keep P376 Baseline methodology, but remove the within-day adjustment.
This is because the in-day adjustment has the potential to incentivise gaming
by the end consumers. If end consumers know an event is scheduled well in
advance, then they can increase their consumption in the adjustment period
(three hours before the event). This would raise their baseline and
consequently, increase their delivery (and revenue) for the same
measurement.

Option 2: adjustment period before the service notification
In-day adjustments could be maintained if the end consumer is notified of the
event window after the in-day adjustment period, thereby minimising their
chance to game it.
For example, if there is an event at 17:00 the in-day adjustment period goes
from 13:00 to 16:00. Therefore, if the end consumers are notified after 16:00
they would have no way to change their behaviour to affect the baseline.
However, by giving consumers such short notice, their capacity to deliver
DFS would be affected, and based on other feedback this is likely to be too
short a leadtime for winter 2023-24.
Alternatively, the in-day adjustement period can be moved forwards. For
example, if the notice is a 12:00, the adjustment period could be 08:00 to
11:00.

Option 3: longer adjustment period
Change the within-day adjustment period to make it longer, e.g. 10 hours.
This would make it less attractive to game, as you would need to spend more
money on the adjustment that you would stand to gain by gaming.
For example, in 2022-23 the typical retail energy price was around 34p/kWh,
whereas the DFS GAP was £3.00/kWh. This means that it would cost
£1.02/kWh (3 x 34p) for and end consumer to increase their baseline, for a
net reward of £1.98/kWh (£3.00 - £1.02) over a 1hr delivery period.
If the within-day adjustment period was longer (and/or if competition made
DFS prices lower, e.g. £1/kWh), this would remove the gaming incentive:
10hrs x 34p/kWh = £3.40/kWh baseline change vs. £1.00/kWh reward, which
would represent a loss.

Option 4: no change
Keep the current implementation.



No prizes for guessing for which option Nowty Towers is in favour of. ;)
Option.................
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John_S
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Re: Octopus saving sessions coming 1st Nov

#597

Post by John_S »

It is unfair to blame us for gaming the system when the system is poorly designed.

The basic premise of the system was to reward using less at certain times on certain days than the average use at those times.

There were two ways of winning. First, genuinely use less but that is hard when using very little anyway (eg batteries of already minimising peak grid usage). Second was to increase the average usage at the peak times ie 1700 to 1900 by timeshifting loads to those times on non payout days. Doing this puts more strain on the grid most days.

What the individual does to win, harms the masses but this is well known to economists as the tragedy of the commons.

And that is before any consideration of in day adjustments.

Also, if British Gas's top 2% of customers saved an average of £53, that is only around a fiver per session or the price of a pint in a some pubs. Hardly riches.
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Fintray
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Re: Octopus saving sessions coming 1st Nov

#598

Post by Fintray »

Fintray wrote: Wed Apr 05, 2023 11:13 am
cycling_mike wrote: Wed Apr 05, 2023 9:59 am Folk are/were using the system to gain advantage (£££) in a way that was not the purpose of the system.

We may justify this to ourselves in a variety of ways but folk did "game"the system.
Let's get this into perspective Vitol VPI, Uniper and SSE ripped everyone off to the tune of £525M.
https://www.energylivenews.com/2023/03/ ... loopholes/
It's this that they need to sort out first!
3.87kWp PV
10.24kWp PV SolarEdge system
Tesla Powerwall 2
100 x 47mm Navitron tubes (still being installed!) Now likely to be removed for more PV.
MK2 PV router DHW diverter
Morso 5kW WBS
Vaillant AroTherm 10kW ASHP
Nissan Leaf
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nowty
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Re: Octopus saving sessions coming 1st Nov

#599

Post by nowty »

I was at the NG ESO webinar earlier for next winters DFS (aka saving sessions) and not surprisingly for next winter the “in day” adjustment is going to be removed completely :evil: . They were asked if they had any evidence of gaming and they did not :roll: , however they had suppliers warning them of the potential for perverse incentives. :lol:

There was some gaming by signing up to multiple DFS services and getting away with it as it was up the DFS suppliers to police it and not all did. Also, there was only weekly checks, next winter the proposal is to go to daily checks and only allow the latest sign up if there are duplicates MPANs.

The other change might be to the opting in process. Last time you opted into the scheme and then had to opt in for each individual session. Their reasoning for the session opt in, was they did not want people to be rewarded if they just accidently used less and wanted people to make an active choice. However, if you opted into the session and used more, then your MPAN number was excluded from the calculations. In other words, for a supplier, if half of opted in customers used more and half used less to the same extent, there would be no net savings, but the supplier was still rewarded in full for all the customers using less.

Next time they are considering having a single opting into the scheme and then you will be deemed to have opted into each session automatically unless you opt out of individual sessions. In this case if you don’t opt out, then your MPAN will be included in the calculations so if you use more, you will reduce the saving to everyone else of that supplier. This is either going to mean less payout for people who used less or a penalty to customers who use more.

As last time, it will be up to the suppliers how they incentivise their customers.
Last edited by nowty on Thu Apr 27, 2023 1:43 pm, edited 1 time in total.
16.9kW PV > 107MWh generated
Ripple 6.6kW Wind + 4.5kW PV > 22MWh generated
5 Other RE Coop's
105kWh EV storage
60kWh Home battery storage
40kWh Thermal storage
GSHP + A2A HP's
Rain water use > 510 m3
Moxi
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Re: Octopus saving sessions coming 1st Nov

#600

Post by Moxi »

I can see a few of the big six putting their vested interests first but based on what others have said here I expect octopus to be at least reasonable, but for me its another pointer to avoiding the smart meter change over for as long as practicable.

Moxi
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