Octopus saving sessions coming 1st Nov

[Tinbum]

I seem to have been unsubscribed from the demand flexibility data sets!!


ESO

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[nowty]

The files are gone from their website, I think with Easter coming and all tests done, they have gone for an early shutdown.
https://www.nationalgrideso.com/data-po ... ty-service

[nowty]

I have received £8 worth of bonus Octopoints today, no idea whether they are from the saving sessions or not but I'm not complaining.

[Krill]

https://www.energylivenews.com/2024/06/ ... power-use/

Hmm. Nowty might break the grid if this is true.

[nowty]

https://www.energylivenews.com/2024/06/ ... power-use/

Hmm. Nowty might break the grid if this is true.

There was a webinair around a week ago about next winter and there is no suggestion of that just yet, although they are thinking of having turn up events in the future but unlikely for this coming winter.
https://www.nationalgrideso.com/documen ... 1/download

Highlights were,

• Baseline methodology likely to be same as last year.

• Generating margin will be better than previous two winters so less need for sessions.

• Stacking will be allowed, I think this means participants can join other balancing services as well as DFS. I think this might increase the number of live sessions.

• Probably no test sessions at all.

• Penalties for suppliers for both under or over delivery.

• Turn up events and locational events may occur in the future but not in the timescales for this winter, maybe thats what the story was eluding to.

[nowty]

There has been an announcement I missed which spawned the article Krill posted. Its like I posted in the previous post but there is going to be some more industry consultation throughout the summer and then implement from this coming winter and then it will run all year round.

Unfortunately there will be no Winter campaign with test sessions as such so only live sessions which run very rarely so less point in boosting the baseline and no more bunga bunga.

Unless of course its a beast from the east high pressure type of winter with live sessions all the way.

https://www.nationalgrideso.com/news/es ... ty-service

[nowty]

Demand Flexibility Service (DFS) aka Saving Sessions should be starting up again from Friday 1st Nov.
https://www.neso.energy/industry-inform ... ervice-dfs

So, time to start looking at signs when a session might happen,

I look at these links for signs,

A few days look ahead, look for the lines heading towards zero or even negative, currently early next week looks promising.
https://bmrs.elexon.co.uk/surplus-forecast-and-margin




Short term today / tomorrow signs, probability of loss of load, look for spikes, the higher the number the better for sessions.
https://bmrs.elexon.co.uk/loss-of-load- ... ted-margin

Short and longer term wind forecast, generally look for light winds in North sea cutting off the bulk of our offshore wind generation and extending around Netherlands and Denmark so we won't get much from their interconnectors. A high pressure system might start forming in the North sea early next week.
https://www.windy.com/

Short term wind generation forecast,
https://bmrs.elexon.co.uk/wind-generation

System warning messages can also point to possible events and the confirmation of actual sessions.
https://bmrs.elexon.co.uk/events

[nowty]

Still looking dodgy for Monday, I think the National Energy System Operator (NESO) is going to have to take some sort of action.

[AE-NMidlands]

maybe I should fill my battery right up in the next couple of nights...

[Stinsy]

What do we think? Worth rinsing from 6pm? Earlier?