stuff oil

[Ken]

The more i learn the more i am convinced that EVs can run just off the energy used/wasted by the FF industry -stuff the oil.

The FF industry uses 1 unit of energy to recover 3 to 6 units of energy i believe, this includes from exploration to stuffing the cars tank. As a ICE car uses 4X as much energy as a EV then stuff the oil. Simplistic i know but you get the idea. Bring on more RE + storage -i cant see Putin affecting that.

[Joeboy]

Most of which (RE & Storage) is manufactured and shipped from China. China & Russia have strong ties. We'll see how far sanctions can be thrown around in the coming months.

It will be interesting to see how far China will go to support Russia in the coming months as opposed to pursuing exports.

There is also the strange thought that the Liberated and free West relies on its energy source to be in the oppressive Russian & Chinese states. How the hell did that happen? Yet it did and its the way its going to be. I used to reflect on this offshore, while a vocal fraction of the UK & European population liked to protest against oil & exploration of same they were happy to do it in synthetic clothes with stomachs full of farmed food that can only be at its price point due to mechanical means, if they get to the protest i hope they walked there as even their bike relies on oil as does the plastic insulating the wires in their bullhorns. Could go on forever about this, that's boring. Instead lets pull back and paraphrase Ben Elton. Farty the street fighting protesting man. Happy to protest today against.... lets say Exploration and development of gas block XYZ in UK waters. In that same moment, Farty is also happy to support China, Saudi Arabia and Russia in the purchase of fossil fuels to keep his lights & heat on. The ultimate idiot NIMBY move and he's likely not even aware of it.

I've taken this slightly off piste as I fully recognise and agree with our need to get away as fast as possible from FF consumption on the scale that it is at. I don't see there being a day when it will be fully gone. Even electric motor bearings need grease. I'm just throwing out for thought that as we try and kill the oil industry here in UK we leave ourselves hostage to three of the worst states on the planet for human rights abuse in the supply of our much needed fuels. Rome wasn't built in a day, neither will RE world be. Gotta watch how you get there and what you leave yourself open to on the journey. Cheers and full steam ahead on the UK designed and built RE products.

[dan_b]

Worth a watch

[Mart]

But buying RE or storage from China is a one off expense/investment, rather than the constant purchase of oil/gas to fuel transport, heating etc.

Back to FF waste, ~40% of shipping by weight is fuel too.

Then there's the simply staggering amounts of methane leaking from extraction/transportation of shale oil and gas, perhaps 30% of CO2(e) warming (largely Russia and the US).

Not meant as a knock, in any way, to folk who can't yet get RE generation, PV, a BEV etc, but the more we learn, the worse FF's get, and dare I say the 'easier' it is to solve so many interlinked problems (including FF related wars and conflicts) by shifting to RE, BEV's, storage. Very promising potential.

[Burble61]

Interesting points especially re our reliance on hydrocarbons outside transport. Whilst i'm sure coming from a constructive place, those seeking to reduce/prevent our own production just make us reliant on other regimes & RE is only a partial response.

Agree with sanctions comment - one aspect of RE equipment is of course semiconductors and i've seen calls to block exports of advanced chips to Russia.

They could probably get by; through sourcing via, say, grey market & China, and manufacturing the less advanced stuff themselves (which they do). Of course in response Russia could restrict export of key strategic materials used in semiconductor manufacture. Oophs.

Complicated, this modern world.

[Joeboy]

But buying RE or storage from China is a one off expense/investment, rather than the constant purchase of oil/gas to fuel transport, heating etc.

Back to FF waste, ~40% of shipping by weight is fuel too.

Then there's the simply staggering amounts of methane leaking from extraction/transportation of shale oil and gas, perhaps 30% of CO2(e) warming (largely Russia and the US).

Not meant as a knock, in any way, to folk who can't yet get RE generation, PV, a BEV etc, but the more we learn, the worse FF's get, and dare I say the 'easier' it is to solve so many interlinked problems (including FF related wars and conflicts) by shifting to RE, BEV's, storage. Very promising potential.

I agree, yet percentage of population who can pursue this life are tiny fractional. Can't be letting the majority freeze. I am agog that we as an engineering nation cannot produce our own RE gear. Political will and investment lacking? I don't think that UK is anywhere near ready to kill o&g exploration. Subsea pipelines kill the transportation costs. Can't believe I am typing this! When a beaut like Putin shows what he can do I can't see the logic in killing o&g in UK.
You need a fallback for a fallback in this life. Putin ain't it!

[Mart]

Sorry, but I think oil and gas exploration should end. The world reserves already can't be used, I think 70%+ need to be left in the ground to avoid catastrophic climate change.

Looking for new oil or gas today, will still takes years to produce anything, and of course won't make any difference to the price since we can't produce enough to impact the European price.

However, we can accelerate RE rollout, insulation, efficiency, heat pumps, all of which will reduce demand for gas, and gas generation. RE is already helping to reduce the cost of leccy as even the current 'expensive' early high subsidy generation is below the gas generation cost, and is subsequently paying into the subsidy fund, not drawing from it. See CFD quarterly payments/receipts

I haven't suggested letting the majority freeze, and of course the vast majority, possibly everyone, benefits from supply side RE generation, and the reduced emissions from demand side RE generation, and localised pollution from BEV's.

Very recent articles:

North Sea oil exploration should not proceed but can, says UK’s climate committee

The prospects for an expansion of oil and gas drilling in the North Sea have cleared a major hurdle, as the Committee on Climate Change said “stringent tests” must be applied to any new exploration licences but stopped short of saying they could not be issued.

New drilling would not reduce energy bills for UK consumers, the committee found, and its chair, former Conservative environment secretary Lord Deben, said he would “favour” a moratorium on North Sea exploration.

He said refusing new licences would “send a clear signal to investors and consumers that the UK is committed” to its climate goals, and help to “strengthen climate ambition internationally”.

Well worth a full read:

Climate change: Can the UK afford its net zero policies?







Methane Is Killing Us. Does Anyone Care? Does Anyone Even Know?

New satellites that are capable of seeing methane plumes from space are telling a chilling tale. Now all you fossil fuel apologists out there, listen up. Yes, we know methane burns cleaner than coal. But — and this is a huge “but” — exploring for, drilling, compressing, and transporting the stuff causes massive amounts of environmental damage. Some scientists estimate methane emissions in the atmosphere account for 30% of global warming.

The latest research by the International Energy Agency contains shocking news. Well, it should be shocking news to anyone who can put aside Tinder and TikTok long enough to pay attention. In its Global Methane Tracker report for 2022, it says actual global methane emissions are 70% greater than what the nations of the world are reporting.

More oil and gas is not a solution. Moving away from oil and gas as fast as possible is the solution.

Or to put it another way, I'd take your last statement: "When a beaut like Putin shows what he can do I can't see the logic in killing o&g in UK."

and suggest - When a beaut like Putin shows what he can do I can see the logic in killing of the need for o&g in UK asap.

[Joeboy]

Sorry, but I think oil and gas exploration should end. The world reserves already can't be used, I think 70%+ need to be left in the ground to avoid catastrophic climate change.

Looking for new oil or gas today, will still takes years to produce anything, and of course won't make any difference to the price since we can't produce enough to impact the European price.

However, we can accelerate RE rollout, insulation, efficiency, heat pumps, all of which will reduce demand for gas, and gas generation. RE is already helping to reduce the cost of leccy as even the current 'expensive' early high subsidy generation is below the gas generation cost, and is subsequently paying into the subsidy fund, not drawing from it. See CFD quarterly payments/receipts

I haven't suggested letting the majority freeze, and of course the vast majority, possibly everyone, benefits from supply side RE generation, and the reduced emissions from demand side RE generation, and localised pollution from BEV's.

Very recent articles:

North Sea oil exploration should not proceed but can, says UK’s climate committee

The prospects for an expansion of oil and gas drilling in the North Sea have cleared a major hurdle, as the Committee on Climate Change said “stringent tests” must be applied to any new exploration licences but stopped short of saying they could not be issued.

New drilling would not reduce energy bills for UK consumers, the committee found, and its chair, former Conservative environment secretary Lord Deben, said he would “favour” a moratorium on North Sea exploration.

He said refusing new licences would “send a clear signal to investors and consumers that the UK is committed” to its climate goals, and help to “strengthen climate ambition internationally”.

Well worth a full read:

Climate change: Can the UK afford its net zero policies?







Methane Is Killing Us. Does Anyone Care? Does Anyone Even Know?

New satellites that are capable of seeing methane plumes from space are telling a chilling tale. Now all you fossil fuel apologists out there, listen up. Yes, we know methane burns cleaner than coal. But — and this is a huge “but” — exploring for, drilling, compressing, and transporting the stuff causes massive amounts of environmental damage. Some scientists estimate methane emissions in the atmosphere account for 30% of global warming.

The latest research by the International Energy Agency contains shocking news. Well, it should be shocking news to anyone who can put aside Tinder and TikTok long enough to pay attention. In its Global Methane Tracker report for 2022, it says actual global methane emissions are 70% greater than what the nations of the world are reporting.

More oil and gas is not a solution. Moving away from oil and gas as fast as possible is the solution.

Or to put it another way, I'd take your last statement: "When a beaut like Putin shows what he can do I can't see the logic in killing o&g in UK."

and suggest - When a beaut like Putin shows what he can do I can see the logic in killing of the need for o&g in UK asap.

Cheers Mart, I'll go through each link and read. I agree with you apart from the lack of a timeline to RE Nirvana also sources of current FF which was my point in 'not to kill the rest of the people by freezing''. I know you didnt suggest that people should freeze, of course not. Yet until we are safely into a robust 150% supply and storage of RE position the energy has to come from somewhere. The moving now is critical to those who don't have access to the alt energy supplies that we do. For those people in the moving now there is a direct relationship between politics of the moment and heat in their homes. The UK is not ready to stand up on its own in RE, Cast mind back to any cloudy still day, the interconnects are ablaze feeding the UK, they wouldn't be if the gas valve was to the off position in Russia. Do we import coal nowadays, just a thought? We can bat this one back and forth for yonks, happy to and I do agree with you but not to the point where the UK should not have the protective umbrella of its own O&G supply. Yes to a massive surge in investment for RE generation and deep storage but that's another story that has its own politics, pricing and speed of progress.

BTW, I've been on jobs where we have went from initial survey to gas onshore in 1 year via pipelines, no fpso, none of that. It can be done, doesn't have to take years. I'm also not so sure about the casual 'of course' to pricing not being affected. Got to live it to see it and what it will do. Domestic generated gas will always be cheaper than imports. Anyway, my point was that a disconnect from reliance on the despots of the world regarding our energy supply is no bad thing. The cleaner the better but that's not always possible.

[Mart]

Cheers.

Just trying to make the point though that any gas that the UK can discover, even if it was available today, would have virtually no impact on the market price, the UK simply can't move the needle enough.

Timing is crucial, but I have a good answer to that too, 2015 when the Tories managed a majority, and no longer needed to be in coalition, what did they do:
1. Made it next to impossible for LA's to approve on-shore wind planning permission.
2. Made it almost impossible for LA's to refuse fracking planning permission.*
3. Removed on-shore wind and PV from the CfD mechanism.
4. Slashed, then ended the FiT subsidy for demand side PV.
5. Reduced the building standards, by chopping off the last piece which was carbon neutrality.
6. Launched then ended the failed green homes grant scheme, where nobody was able to get anything approved (virtually no-one).
7. Described 'it all' as 'that green crap'.

*By providing false hope for UK fracking (Poland, with far 'better' frackgas potential had already failed economically at this point) they effectively undermined efforts to move away from gas (generation and space heating) asap. By supporting the fracking industry (and jobs) this would have had a negative impact on support for RE, and possibly even a financial impact on the cost of capital for RE developments. For example, simply hinting at negative legislation for diesel vehicles post dieselgate, the Gov deliberately (or accidentally) caused a rapid drop in demand for new diesel vehicles, without technically doing anything, so words and apparent support, or lack of it, does matter.


Hope this doesn't come over as twisted and bitter, it's really important to show just how many years have been lost, and now we are in the sh1t, and every one of those points has been reversed, apart from demand side PV support, even Boris now saying how he believes in climate change, and his recent opinion change is because he's following the science, which I assume means that the science wasn't particularly clear until a year or two ago?

Please don't think I'm suggested an instantaneous miracle with Nirvana tomorrow, but given the time constraints on finding and producing more gas/oil, and the close to zero effect that would have on market prices, it seems to me that we need to move away from these products as fast6 as possible, not commit ourselves to more expense, and the jobs created, when we are already at the point in time when we need to transition demand and jobs away from FF's.

Shirley, the recent price changes and Putin's actions prove the need to change in the long term, the medium term, and by association, the short term?


Just to prove I'm not being short sighted, and appreciate the issues, wouldn't better short term management be achieved by maxing out coal generation in the UK and delaying the end date (2024 I think?), delaying any more nuclear closures in Germany, and where safe, extending nuclear life expectancies in France? This may sound weird coming from me, but at least those measures would have some short term impact on gas prices (via demand).

[billi]

Exactly Mart

I think 70%+ need to be left in the ground to avoid catastrophic climate change.

and what i never get, is the ownership question ..... of Fossil Fuels
on that globe ... how deep does one own land for drilling ?

Anyway , we know more today and just leave as much of that stuff in the globe , as there is a proven logic in wind and PV combined with water power and biomass