Part ownership of a Ripple Wind Turbine, fancy it?

[nowty]

Well that's my theory blown on the last hour, back to normal!

It should be banging it back out again from midnight and the following weeks forecast looks good to me.

[Joeboy]

Well that's my theory blown on the last hour, back to normal!

It should be banging it back out again from midnight and the following weeks forecast looks good to me.

With a bit of fortune we'll go past 32%? My personal PB.of 600kWh clicked in this morning.

[nowty]

Well that's my theory blown on the last hour, back to normal!

It should be banging it back out again from midnight and the following weeks forecast looks good to me.

With a bit of fortune we'll go past 32%? My personal PB.of 600kWh clicked in this morning.

Ripples own forecasts for the rest of the month look reasonable to me, maybe even a little pessimistic. Using them and the history it does look very close to 32% which is the baseline for Oct.

Sadly I'm not going to make 800 kWh but 700+ kWh is almost certain and its a PB.

[nowty]

I nearly forgot it was the WT1 AGM tonight, got there 1 minute late.

Graig Fatha AGM highlights,

First of all, I was peed off that the accounts were not available to view, something to do with they were not fully audited yet, we might need another vote, etc. That was a bit crap to be honest, so I and 18% others abstained from approving the accounts.

Everything's great apart from the summer been too hot and high pressure so we are a bit down on baseline, but Oct is looking good. I screen shotted their monthly baseline forecast graph. , I will have to compare it with my generic one and work out the baseline capacity factors for future reference.
Graph below shows P50, P75. P75 and actuals.


Nothing about any technical difficulties, availability has been 95% which to be fair is good for a wind turbine. I saw an OFGEM figure of 85% a few weeks back.

Same info with WT2 about sticking with annual price reviews, possible to go to quarterly or even live pricing but its complicated and adds risk.

Savings for next year, prices are currently about 20p / kWh but they were at 30p and even 40p a while back. Because the business case is for offsetting your actual bill, they will set the final price about 2 months before renewal.

No webcam of turbine, excuse about data costs, not happening.

Issues regarding income cap (windfall tax), Sarah admitted there were no guarantees, but as its only a single 2.5MW turbine, it still might not be big enough to be relevant even if the government does not issue a specific exemption via the consultation and secondary legislation.

General Ripple Stuff,

Some improvements to the dashboard coming in around a month time.

Project 3 will be announced before Xmas with the offer after Xmas, so similar to last night.

Same thing as last night, to offer more than the 120% rule, they might have to be regulated a different way and it would take years.

Same thing as last night about the 120% rule, and complications with home solar, they still did not clarify it but their FAQs would be updated.

EDIT - I honestly think they have got themselves into a corner with this 120% business. They have given on several occasions now two reasons why it is 120%.

1) Because the Coop needs a true trading nature which is to supply your own house. I think this is rubbish because other Coop's only have a limit of £100k which I believe are FCA rules of a Coop. Maybe the savings being paid through Octopus Energy make this difficult.

2) They are trying to get an exemption for income tax to align with microgeneration. Sarah said today there have been communications from the treasury to HMRC over the summer about this. Heard this now for several years.

My personal view is that it won't fly,
(a) Because they will have to change the legislation about FIT (and SEG) to allow the generation at a remote location to your premises (currently says at or near) which may open up all sorts of other tax avoidance shenanigans.
(b) Because if you already have solar, then you will have to add up both sources, so its almost unworkable, especially as Ripples own view of this has been uncertain.

[Joeboy]

I nearly forgot it was the WT1 AGM tonight, got there 1 minute late.

Graig Fatha AGM highlights,

First of all, I was peed off that the accounts were not available to view, something to do with they were not fully audited yet, we might need another vote, etc. That was a bit crap to be honest, so I and 18% others abstained from approving the accounts.

Everything's great apart from the summer been too hot and high pressure so we are a bit down on baseline, but Oct is looking good. I screen shotted their monthly baseline forecast graph. , I will have to compare it with my generic one and work out the baseline capacity factors for future reference.
Graph below shows P50, P75. P75 and actuals.


Nothing about any technical difficulties, availability has been 95% which to be fair is good for a wind turbine. I saw an OFGEM figure of 85% a few weeks back.

Same info with WT2 about sticking with annual price reviews, possible to go to quarterly or even live pricing but its complicated and adds risk.

Savings for next year, prices are currently about 20p / kWh but they were at 30p and even 40p a while back. Because the business case is for offsetting your actual bill, they will set the final price about 2 months before renewal.

No webcam of turbine, excuse about data costs, not happening.

Issues regarding income cap (windfall tax), Sarah admitted there were no guarantees, but as its only a single 2.5MW turbine, it still might not be big enough to be relevant even if the government does not issue a specific exemption via the consultation and secondary legislation.

General Ripple Stuff,

Some improvements to the dashboard coming in around a month time.

Project 3 will be announced before Xmas with the offer after Xmas, so similar to last night.

Same thing as last night, to offer more than the 120% rule, they might have to be regulated a different way and it would take years.

Same thing as last night about the 120% rule, and complications with home solar, they still did not clarify it but their FAQs would be updated.

EDIT - I honestly think they have got themselves into a corner with this 120% business. They have given on several occasions now two reasons why it is 120%.

1) Because the Coop needs a true trading nature which is to supply your own house. I think this is rubbish because other Coop's only have a limit of £100k which I believe are FCA rules of a Coop. Maybe the savings being paid through Octopus Energy make this difficult.

2) They are trying to get an exemption for income tax to align with microgeneration. Sarah said today there have been communications from the treasury to HMRC over the summer about this. Heard this now for several years.

My personal view is that it won't fly,
(a) Because they will have to change the legislation about FIT (and SEG) to allow the generation at a remote location to your premises (currently says at or near) which may open up all sorts of other tax avoidance shenanigans.
(b) Because if you already have solar, then you will have to add up both sources, so its almost unworkable, especially as Ripples own view of this has been uncertain.

Thanks for all this Nowty. I would think we'd see the next years per kWh price about February then. That's handy as prices are likely to be high.

I'm not a fan of the 120% either and it seems like a grey area fudge to get it rolling. Surely better to have committed individuals than pay interest on a loan. There was word on the ability to buy more if they became available. Whether that thought was linked to above 120% and reducing the loan or not I don't know. A developing situation. I'll be breaking out the storage heater reasoning in my bid for proj 3 allocation.

[John_S]

The 120% rule is a nightmare.
Once one reaches it, it precludes any further investment and Ripple has to keep finding a new set of investors for their next project.

They hyped WT2 about selling out quickly but it never did. They seem to be repeating this with WT3.

I, for one, was honest but optimistic in determining my annual usage. However with the energy crisis I have cut back usage, especially of my EV, and may now not reach what I expected. It also depends if one can make allowance for a possible future heat pump to replace a gas boiler. What happens then?

How about them selling the power from WT2 in 4 chunks, each renewing for a year every three months, but some with a shorter first period.

[Joeboy]

Looks like a solar park then or possibly a combo?

https://rippleenergy.com/

[Joeboy]

It should be banging it back out again from midnight and the following weeks forecast looks good to me.

With a bit of fortune we'll go past 32%? My personal PB.of 600kWh clicked in this morning.

Ripples own forecasts for the rest of the month look reasonable to me, maybe even a little pessimistic. Using them and the history it does look very close to 32% which is the baseline for Oct.

Sadly I'm not going to make 800 kWh but 700+ kWh is almost certain and its a PB.

I'll be within a sniff of 700kWh for Oct. That'll do me, more than happy with that! November is certainly looking good already. 32.56% at close of play yesterday. Hopefully that will be sustained and the wee kick North of the figure two days into Nov.

[nowty]

Boom, I said a couple of days ago the ripple forecasts for the last few days of Oct looked a little pessimistic to me.
Next week looks nuts, I reckon another UK record to go, maybe on Wed 2nd Nov we make 20 GW+ on wind for the first time.

[nowty]

Still rising.